BC Top 5's

[MonmouthGuy]

I'm beginning to lean towards Haynesfield more and more.
I noticed Asmussen and Sheets have been very patient with him and
he seems to have matured.
He looks to be high strung and has run only in New York but he's taken
great leaps and seems to be breezing nicely for the Classic.

He's staying better than his breeding suggests though some may
think he's not fast enough , he has a nice cruising speed .

Haynesfield is going to be extremely dangerous next Saturday. Before I started reviewing the PPs, I wanted to dismiss him as cheap speed, but if you draw a line through his Whitney (in which he had a legitimate excuse), you can make a very strong argument for him. If he handles the crowd, watch out.

This is an incredibly strong Classic field and will be fun to handicap. No horse should be under 5-1 in this field, so by definition, there will be value everywhere you look once you get past Zenyatta.

[Valiant-Nature]

I'm beginning to lean towards Haynesfield more and more.
I noticed Asmussen and Sheets have been very patient with him and
he seems to have matured.
He looks to be high strung and has run only in New York but he's taken
great leaps and seems to be breezing nicely for the Classic.

He's staying better than his breeding suggests though some may
think he's not fast enough , he has a nice cruising speed .

He just might be the only speed I use in the race. Maybe 2 or 3 others from off the pace to varying degrees. He's fresh and he's peaking, and he's in the right hands, and with people who know their way around Churchill. I think Stevie boy is playing this one coy, and he's not going to make a big fuss, but he believes in his heart of hearts that he's sitting on a big one.

[terpsichorist]

Haynesfield is going to be extremely dangerous next Saturday. Before I started reviewing the PPs, I wanted to dismiss him as cheap speed, but if you draw a line through his Whitney (in which he had a legitimate excuse), you can make a very strong argument for him. If he handles the crowd, watch out.

This is an incredibly strong Classic field and will be fun to handicap. No horse should be under 5-1 in this field, so by definition, there will be value everywhere you look once you get past Zenyatta.

I'm wondering too if he can stay calm , We know his burst through the gate before.
All in all Toby Sheets has done a great job as Asmussens handler in NY .

[Matt Converse]

Haynesfield is going to be extremely dangerous next Saturday. Before I started reviewing the PPs, I wanted to dismiss him as cheap speed, but if you draw a line through his Whitney (in which he had a legitimate excuse), you can make a very strong argument for him. If he handles the crowd, watch out.


I agree. Quality Road, Blame, Lookin at Lucky are 0-for-5 combined at 10f, he's 1-0 and is considered the most suspect at the distance? Hmmmm. The reason I really like him in the expected fast pace. Say what?


You heard me right. Key word: expected. These are sometimes exactly the type of races that end up in a moderate pace because no one wants to crash and burn. They are fast horses but have no reason to be in a hurry early. Ghostzapper was very fast and never won a 10f race until the Classic, despite having the speedy Roses in May "press him" all the way around. If a similar scenario unfolds, Haynesfield is indeed dangerous. Quality Road would also love this scenario. As would Espoir City and Morning Line. What incentive is there for any of them to go blazing fast early?

Meanwhile, there's plenty of incentive for them to all run a moderate pace: beating Zenyatta, Blame, and Lookin at Lucky. If this were a reality show, the "alliances" would be very clear.

[Kennedy]

I like accountability, thus I enjoy looking back over some of the opinions I've shared to see how they've worked out. Quoted below are my original BC top 5's posted on May 3rd of this year. It'll be interesting to see how things worked out.



Classic
Zenyatta
Battle Plan
Summer Bird
Blame
Rail Trip

Just two Classic starters from five picks. Two were injured and one proved to be not good enough but I did at least have the Classic exacta among my top 5.

My final Top 5's which were lost in the crash had Blame on Top with Zenyatta second. Neither Blame nor Zenyatta were ever dropped from my top 5.


Turf
Fame And Glory
Spanish Moon
Kite Wood
Take the Points
Musketier

Not a single Turf starter on this list. I think it's fair to say this this particular top 5 was of no practical use at all. The only advice that was given that proved to be correct was that the Europeans would be winning this race so respect them all.

Even my final top 5 in October still had no BC Turf starters on it. I think it's fair to say that I bombed this one.


Mile
Gio Ponti
Goldikova
Special Duty
Courageous Cat
Dick Turpin

Another reverse order exacta from just two starters. Form held decently well in the Mile.

Goldikova was never off my list and by August she was on top and stayed that way through the final ranking. Gio Ponti was listed as the second choice in October. The Usual Q.T. showed up only once in the top 5. He made the list in August but was then dropped.


Sprint
Hollywood Hit
Custom for Carlos
Warrior's Reward
Musket Man
Cash Refund

Just two horses from this list wound up as starters and neither of them had any impact.

Big Drama entered the list in September in was second ranked in both Sept and October. Smiling Tiger was also 5th on my final list.


Dirt Mile
Quality Road
Arson Squad
Sidney's Candy
Convocation
Mythical Power

Not one horse from this list ran in this race but based on their performances I think that Quality Road probably should have!

I did manage to have 3 of the major wagering interests in my top 5 but no one even hit the frame. The Dirt Mile was just about as ugly as the Turf for me this year.


Distaff
Unrivaled Belle
Blind Luck
Life At Ten
Careless Jewel
Evening Jewel

This race wound up working very well and it had me wondering why I didn't really use Unrivaled Belle in my actual selections. Probably because she went on a losing streak all summer and fall but the talent was there. Blind Luck completed the exacta and Life At Ten barely completed the circumference of the track. You can't win them all. Evening Jewel ended up in the BC FM Sprint and ran third.

Unrivaled Belle was in fact in my top 5 all along but did fade down to 4th place behind Havre de Grace, Blind Luck and Switch. Switch ended up being a live runner in the FM Sprint but had no impact here. Still I'm pleased with how the Ladies Classic list turned out.



FM Turf
Dar Re Mi
Shemiyla
Proviso
Forever Together
Wasted Tears

Just one runner from this lot and she showed very little. Proviso also struggled in the Mile against such good horses.

Midday was added to this list in June and stayed on the list the rest of the way. Neither Shared Account nor Keertana ever made the list.



FM Sprint
Franny Freud
Free Flying Soul
Tar Heel Mom
Informed Decision
Warbling


Informed Decision made the trip to Churchill but did not perform with much distinction.

Dubai Majesty made the June version of the list and stayed among the top 5 for the rest of the way. Of course I didn't really heed my own advice when making selections.

I had top 5's for the Turf Sprint starting in June and the two main track juvenile races in September. Chamberlain Bridge and Uncle Mo made every version of the list that was produced and Chamberlain Bridge was my final #2 ranked.

Only R Heat Lightning hit the board from my Juvenile Fillies list.

Overall from 40 horses selected 6 months in advance I got 15 starters. From those 15 starters there were 3 winners 3 seconds and a third. A $2 wager at post time on all 15 of those entrants that made it to the Breeders' Cup would have yielded a profit of $4.00 (+13%)

From my final lists I had 7 winners listed among my top 5 over 11 races. I never did put out a top 5 for the Marathon or any of the Juvenile Turf races.

All in all a successful experience I'd say. It's a shame the crash wiped out many of my rankings here but at least I saved them all in a spreadsheet!