BC Confusing Races

[Kennedy]

I thought I'd start a thread where we could discuss some of the BC races where were really struggling to get any solid ideas. We already have a bunch of threads for people to grandstand big opinions but what about the races that confuse us? The All button? Or maybe we just need some help unpacking them.

For me the biggest trouble races look like the Marathon and FM Sprint. The Classic was/is a bit of a struggle but I think I'm settling into a comfort level with the race.

As for the Marathon I'm struggling to find any real clues. Sure Giant Oak got the big figure last time and has closed in the final portions of almost every career start but the guys a clear non-winner. The Europeans will likely stay but aren't particularly likely to love the dirt. Overall its just a race where I'm not finding much edge.

The FM Sprint has many playable options in my opinion but there just seems to be so many. I'm having trouble eliminating anyone.

Anyone have any thoughts on these races or perhaps you have some confusing ones of your own?

[Miss Woodford]

Turf Sprint
8 or 9 horses have a good shot at winning this thing.

The Marathon isn't too bad-for me it's Alcomo all the way. He's the one horse in here who's a marathon specialist on dirt, and a multiple graded stakes winner (in Brazil and the US) on dirt. I like his series of progressively longer works. He had a similar workout structure prior to his Brooklyn win.

[Valiant-Nature]

All three Sprints cause me problems every year. You can draw conclusions about most of the parameters of the other races, and you have a deeper set of criteria of which you can filter and separate out horses. With sprints you are stuck with a huge goup of horses who can all get the trip. All you have to look at ( to me anyway) is pace and race shapes. They seem to be extremely wide open, and only those events where you really don't see anything but 1 on the lead type, or 5 need the lead types and 1 quality closer do I see the race clearly.

I haven't really looked at any of the three yet, so I don't know what I'll see, but I do know it will leave me scratching my head.

[Kennedy]

Turf Sprint
8 or 9 horses have a good shot at winning this thing.

The Marathon isn't too bad-for me it's Alcomo all the way. He's the one horse in here who's a marathon specialist on dirt, and a multiple graded stakes winner (in Brazil and the US) on dirt. I like his series of progressively longer works. He had a similar workout structure prior to his Brooklyn win.

I see Alcomo and he looked like the best one to me but is he really that good? I keep coming back to the old saying "bad races are often won by bad horses" Does it then make sense to stick with the "best" horse on paper that will be 5/1 or less? Alcomo is solid but consistently beatable. He may be who I wind up with but I'd be just as confident with a selection gleaned by throwing a dart at a list of the entries.

[Kennedy]

All three Sprints cause me problems every year. You can draw conclusions about most of the parameters of the other races, and you have a deeper set of criteria of which you can filter and separate out horses. With sprints you are stuck with a huge goup of horses who can all get the trip. All you have to look at ( to me anyway) is pace and race shapes. They seem to be extremely wide open, and only those events where you really don't see anything but 1 on the lead type, or 5 need the lead types and 1 quality closer do I see the race clearly.

I haven't really looked at any of the three yet, so I don't know what I'll see, but I do know it will leave me scratching my head.

I am technically 1 for 19 in with my top pick in the various Sprint races over the years so i can agree with you on their difficulty but somehow I've never felt badly about the races. Despite picking the wrong horse as my top selection I often end up with the right horses in the mix so it puts me in the game for the exotics and such.

The Sprint races are extremely difficult though. One stat that I've kind of clung to for the BC Sprint itself is focusing primarily on the 6f record of the entrants. In many cases it's the horses that have run big in the 6f events that have done well.

I've actually worked on developing a profile for Sprint winners in the BC and although it blanked the last two years on synthetics it has managed to put 7 winners from the preceding 8 runnings on a short list. If the profile is of any use then I'd expect the Sprint to be decided between Big Drama, Girolamo and Atta Boy Roy.

[peeptoad]

The Juv. Filly Turf and Juv Filly races... and I'll probably end up skipping those anyhow.

[peeptoad]

As for the Marathon I'm struggling to find any real clues. Sure Giant Oak got the big figure last time and has closed in the final portions of almost every career start but the guys a clear non-winner. The Europeans will likely stay but aren't particularly likely to love the dirt. Overall its just a race where I'm not finding much edge.


My prelim. pick in that race is AU Miner, but things may change in the next week.

[Miss Woodford]

I see Alcomo and he looked like the best one to me but is he really that good? I keep coming back to the old saying "bad races are often won by bad horses" Does it then make sense to stick with the "best" horse on paper that will be 5/1 or less? Alcomo is solid but consistently beatable. He may be who I wind up with but I'd be just as confident with a selection gleaned by throwing a dart at a list of the entries.
I don't think it's a particularly "bad" race-this race isn't graded, so don't expect the field to be a graded stakes field. Horses like Alcomo, A. U. Miner, Eldaafer, Temple City are solid G3-G2 horses, so it's not like these are a bunch of claimers. Alcomo may be consistently beatable, but he's also still improving, even as a 7yo. He started late, was very consistent in stakes company in his native land, and has improved since he found his niche in distance races. To me even if he isn't a lock, he's the best prepared for the distance.

[Valiant-Nature]

I am technically 1 for 19 in with my top pick in the various Sprint races over the years so i can agree with you on their difficulty but somehow I've never felt badly about the races. Despite picking the wrong horse as my top selection I often end up with the right horses in the mix so it puts me in the game for the exotics and such.

The Sprint races are extremely difficult though. One stat that I've kind of clung to for the BC Sprint itself is focusing primarily on the 6f record of the entrants. In many cases it's the horses that have run big in the 6f events that have done well.

I've actually worked on developing a profile for Sprint winners in the BC and although it blanked the last two years on synthetics it has managed to put 7 winners from the preceding 8 runnings on a short list. If the profile is of any use then I'd expect the Sprint to be decided between Big Drama, Girolamo and Atta Boy Roy.

Nothing wrong with any of those. I've been a fan of Big Drama all year. The two concerns I have is 1. What to do with the synthetic horses, especially Supreme Summit and Smiling Tiger. 2. Assmusen has Riley moving in the right direction again after a dissapointing Summer. And his affinity for Churchill is glaring.

There's usually a price available for the P4 so it's a race I always tend to believe you have to go deepest of the 4.

[terpsichorist]

Trying to find free pp's for Fri. races.

[Spahny]

There's usually a price available for the P4 so it's a race I always tend to believe you have to go deepest of the 4.

Yes. So much depends on the draw and then how they break. It's always shocking to see the head on shot of the break in a grade one sprint race. Chaos. I'm hoping to get an outside draw with a new face like Wise Dan. If you can survive the start and stay out of trouble with a fresh horse you have a chance. But with his lack of experience if he gets knocked around he is likely to give up early.

[RagstoRiches]

TDN has the pps free.


I agree with the Marathon. I haven't had time to really study it yet, but so far I have the impression that a different horse would win every time. After the last two years I had decided that all I had to do was pick the lesser Euro, but now that it's on dirt I don't know if that will work. Not to mention there are several "lesser" Euros who don't look like they have much chance!

[Commentator]

I'm only betting the Saturday races, and of them all the Turf Sprint is giving me the most trouble by far. I kind of like Bridgetown, but... it's a turf sprint. Absolutely anything can and will happen. I feel okay about the Dirt Sprint so far, leaning towards Atta Boy Roy and Wise Dan. Hoping that Girolamo and Big Drama take all the money, but unfortunately Roy's got the whole Calvin angle working against that.

I'm going to be following the clocker reports carefully- after all, they were invaluable in handicapping the Derby this year. So far it sounds like Smiling Tiger is a toss, but I suppose that could change between now and then.