Stats on the BC Classic

[HardSpun32]

Wanted to add these statistics on the Breeder's Cup Classic in regards to Beyer numbers. This is a race where the Beyers have very strong significance to performance and who finishes 1st or 2nd. Horses that win this race have to run at least a 110 Beyer number to win. The average over the past 10 years is closer to 115. Here are some of the past winners numbers:

Concern(1994) - 114
Cigar(1995) - 117
Tiznow(2000) - 116
Volponi(2002) - 116
Pleasantly Perfect(2003) - 119
Saint Liam(2005) - 113
Invasor(2006) - 116
Curlin(2007) - 119
Zenyatta(2009) - 112

For the beyers of every Classic run to date, check this website
http://blog.youbet.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/derek_101007_2.gif

With that said, the only horse in the race that has run these numbers multiple times is Quality Road(6 total career). Zenyatta hit the threshold last year. As great a filly she is, she will have to run equal to that or better to win tomorrow. Her higest number this year is 103. As a note, her rags numbers are much better than her beyers. She got a 1 and 5, both times on dirt.

Did look at the Rags numbers for the field too and from those, its much more even than the beyers would suggest.

If these stats verify, Quality road should win and with ease. This is probably one of the weakest fields I've ever seen for the Classic. Blame is going in the wrong direction and may have already run his best races. His best beyer was 111. Musket Man is a legit longshot to hit the board as he has run multiple times betweeen 105-109. For the rest of the field, they will vastly need to improve to run a number in the mid-110's. Forget about any of the 3-year olds. They have no shot. Of them, Lookin' At Lucky has the best shot to hit the board.

Rest of the field and their best Beyer
Paddy O' Prado - 100
First Dude - 103
Haynsfield - 107
Fly Down - 105
Pleasant Prince - 100

[Songofthesword]

That's not true.

Tiznow
Pleasantly perfect, I think.. Think.. saint liam..don't quote me on that one, curlin and zenyatta all ran their career best in the classic. whoever wins this race, will more than likely run their career best. it's not like curlin was boasting 119 beyers coming into the classic.

[HardSpun32]

^^He ran a 111 in the Preakness and a 114 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup prior to the Classic. Already had proven he could run those numbers. Getting a 119 was not that much of an improve.

[Dave in TJMex]

Wanted to add these statistics on the Breeder's Cup Classic in regards to Beyer numbers. This is a race where the Beyers have very strong significance to performance and who finishes 1st or 2nd. Horses that win this race have to run at least a 110 Beyer number to win. The average over the past 10 years is closer to 115. Here are some of the past winners numbers:

Concern(1994) - 114
Cigar(1995) - 117
Tiznow(2000) - 116
Volponi(2002) - 116
Pleasantly Perfect(2003) - 119
Saint Liam(2005) - 113
Invasor(2006) - 116
Curlin(2007) - 119
Zenyatta(2009) - 112

For the beyers of every Classic run to date, check this website
http://blog.youbet.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/derek_101007_2.gif

With that said, the only horse in the race that has run these numbers multiple times is Quality Road(6 total career). Zenyatta hit the threshold last year. As great a filly she is, she will have to run equal to that or better to win tomorrow. Her higest number this year is 103. As a note, her rags numbers are much better than her beyers. She got a 1 and 5, both times on dirt.

Did look at the Rags numbers for the field too and from those, its much more even than the beyers would suggest.

If these stats verify, Quality road should win and with ease. This is probably one of the weakest fields I've ever seen for the Classic. Blame is going in the wrong direction and may have already run his best races. His best beyer was 111. Musket Man is a legit longshot to hit the board as he has run multiple times betweeen 105-109. For the rest of the field, they will vastly need to improve to run a number in the mid-110's. Forget about any of the 3-year olds. They have no shot. Of them, Lookin' At Lucky has the best shot to hit the board.

Rest of the field and their best Beyer
Paddy O' Prado - 100
First Dude - 103
Haynsfield - 107
Fly Down - 105
Pleasant Prince - 100

I am a Beyer guy. Thanks for your post and the numbers.

All I would add is that with the exception of the last two years, all those other Beyers were run in the steroid era. I think ALL Beyer numbers were inflated during that era.

That said, Z will likely need to run another 110+ Beyer to win, just like she did last year.

QR is capable of running Beyers higher than 110 and has done so in the past, but don't most of us believe that QR will likely be treading water the last 1/8 of a mile, slowing down rapidly, and thus will be unlikely to run a huge Beyer (although something just in excess of 110 would not surprise me)?

Blame has run a couple of Beyers around 110. He loves Churchill, seems fit, and has a good style for the long CD stretch.

Lucky will likely have to run a career best Beyer to win, but I think he is certainly capable of it. Training well, likes CD (his Ky Derby was great; after he got crushed into the rail early and dropped back to 19th, he probably ran the best race of any in the field).

Haynesfield has one monster Beyer, in his last Beyer, but I suspect that his huge number then was the product of a one-turn, sealed yet wet Belmont track. He may bounce a little of that, and probably will be pressured more on the lead tomorrow than in his last race.

Any other horse in the field will likely have to run easily a career-best Beyer to win.

Again, thanks for the stats!

[dustino140]

Keep in mind that Beyers across the board since circa 2008 have been down about 8-10 points from where they were previously.

And if you're calling this field weak based on the Beyer numbers they're running, I feel bad for you.

[Secretariat Forever]

Wasn't QR's beyer in the JCGC last year a 110? (serious question)

[HardSpun32]

Dave and Dustino, I agree that Beyers are way down the past two years, then what they used to be. Whether it was from the steriod era, the drop has been very noticeable.


Keep in mind that Beyers across the board since circa 2008 have been down about 8-10 points from where they were previously.

And if you're calling this field weak based on the Beyer numbers they're running, I feel bad for you.

Its not just Beyers. Are you kidding me? Would most of this field even be competitive if it ran against the horses in the 1998, 2001, 2003 or 2004 Classic? The only horses that deserve to be in this race are Zenyatta, Quality Road, Blame and Musket Man.


Wasn't QR's beyer in the JCGC last year a 110? (serious question)

Yes, that was his number.

[dustino140]

Its not just Beyers. Are you kidding me? Would most of this field even be competitive if it ran against the horses in the 1998, 2001, 2003 or 2004 Classic? The only horses that deserve to be in this race are Zenyatta, Quality Road, Blame and Musket Man.


One of these days people will learn that comparing today and yesterday never quite works as well as we want it to.

And keep in mind that there is often a significant perception gap in the Classic regarding the talent of the top 4/5/6 horses and the 'rest' of them.

You mention 2003 - besides GZ, Roses, PP, Birdstone, and Perfect Drift, I kind of remember the rest of the field being an over-the-top Azeri, an over-the-top Funny Cide, Bowmans Band, Personal Rush, Newfoundland, Dynever, Freefourinternet, etc. Not that it was a bad field, it's just that very rarely are these races stacked from top to bottom.

[Secretariat Forever]

One of these days people will learn that comparing today and yesterday never quite works as well as we want it to.

And keep in mind that there is often a significant perception gap in the Classic regarding the talent of the top 4/5/6 horses and the 'rest' of them.

You mention 2003 - besides GZ, Roses, PP, Birdstone, and Perfect Drift, I kind of remember the rest of the field being an over-the-top Azeri, an over-the-top Funny Cide, Bowmans Band, Personal Rush, Newfoundland, Dynever, Freefourinternet, etc. Not that it was a bad field, it's just that very rarely are these races stacked from top to bottom.

Somebody better tell Pleasantly Perfect he not only lost the 04 Classic to GZ and Roses In May but he lost in 03 to them too. ;)

[Secretariat Forever]

Yes, that was his number.

So if he runs back to that JCGC, he should be tougher to beat than many think at a 1 1/4. If he improves that number...he'll be even tougher than tougher.

[Songofthesword]

you honestly, need to just find a new sport to wager on if you think lookin at lucky can't hold his on in the past bc races. He might not win , might not even hit the board, but he will be in every race.

[Curlin]

I'd like to know where two of Andy's other "pets" , Understatement and Redding Colliery are running tomorrow. By your logic either of these two, especially Understatement, could win the Classic, yet to me they are the poster horses for his hackneyed methodology.

Think of all the other horses who earned a big Beyer this year. Outside of those entered in the BC, and those injured or retired, how did they fare subsequent to their highest Beyer, when stepped up to better company? Routinely, they fare poorly.

He has his faves, which he frequently gives high figures to. Many are very overrated IMO. I don't think Blame's figures are overstated but I believe QR's are (with the possible exception of the Whitney). I mean, that Woodward field was awful, he beat nothing. Many of the horses routinely ran in the 90's.

And yes, Zenyatta's foes haven't been stellar either but she has one distinction that no one can deny - she has won at 10 F under similar conditions - 2 turns, non-turf. You may laugh at my saying "non-turf" but considering the good crossover performances by Blind Luck, Switch, Dubai Majesty and Evening Jewel I have confidence she will perform not only up to the 112 of last year, but exceed it, much to the chagrin of Andy Beyer.

[HardSpun32]

^^At first, I thought Quality Road was vulnerable in this race, since he is 0/2 at 1 1/4 Miles and his best distance is likely a mile to 1 1/8 Miles. But after looking at the field, even a regress would make him no worse than 2nd.

I really think the reason he lost both is due to Pletcher/Velasquez trying to rate him. You can't rate a horse with a natural high-cruising speed. That type of horse can run 22, 45, 1:10 fractions and still be there at the end of a race of this distance. Pletcher admitted last week that they made a mistake trying to rate him and finally acknowleged his speed. They are going to let him run his race today. With his speed, he is good enough to run 22, 45, 1:10 fractions and still be there at the end of a 1 1/4 race, and outrun anyone that tries to go with him. If they make him run 24, 48 and 1:12 fractions, he will lose. In the Donn earlier this year, he ran 1:09 for 6 Furlongs and 1:34 for the Mile, finishing up in 1:47 for the 1 1/8 distance, where he earned a 121 Beyer and was his best race of this career.

Its very possible that he may not be the same horse that he was earlier ithis year, as his beyers have gradually went down the past few races. I guess we'll find out today. Some of his performances have been amazing in his career and he is just getting dismissed in this race by the current odds. I very surprised by his odds as of last night being 12/1. I haven't seen the lastest odds.

[RSA]

I am a Beyer guy. Thanks for your post and the numbers.

All I would add is that with the exception of the last two years, all those other Beyers were run in the steroid era. I think ALL Beyer numbers were inflated during that era.

That said, Z will likely need to run another 110+ Beyer to win, just like she did last year.

QR is capable of running Beyers higher than 110 and has done so in the past, but don't most of us believe that QR will likely be treading water the last 1/8 of a mile, slowing down rapidly, and thus will be unlikely to run a huge Beyer (although something just in excess of 110 would not surprise me)?

Blame has run a couple of Beyers around 110. He loves Churchill, seems fit, and has a good style for the long CD stretch.

Lucky will likely have to run a career best Beyer to win, but I think he is certainly capable of it. Training well, likes CD (his Ky Derby was great; after he got crushed into the rail early and dropped back to 19th, he probably ran the best race of any in the field).

Haynesfield has one monster Beyer, in his last Beyer, but I suspect that his huge number then was the product of a one-turn, sealed yet wet Belmont track. He may bounce a little of that, and probably will be pressured more on the lead tomorrow than in his last race.

Any other horse in the field will likely have to run easily a career-best Beyer to win.

Again, thanks for the stats!

You sure about that? The track was fast and it was sunny all that day.

You can check out that last race here:
http://www1.drf.com/replays/savedreplays.jsp?RACE=1028 (http://www1.drf.com/replays/savedreplays.jsp?RACE=1028)