Breeder's Cup Friday

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Somnambulist
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:17 pm

Goldencents has been running very well since the cutback all year. He's not really the best example of a track bias.

Do a lot of horses seem to be coming back tired or banged up, or is it just me?
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middleground
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:17 pm

Nice win for Goldencents. I thought he was going to fold.
second_glance
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:18 pm

The bias is so extreme, I don't think Princess of Sylmar has a chance.
Somnambulist
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:20 pm

They're really done a great job at making a mockery of this event. The two day thing is such BS, the bias is BS, and so on.
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Tessablue
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:20 pm

Somnambulist wrote:Goldencents has been running very well since the cutback all year. He's not really the best example of a track bias.

Do a lot of horses seem to be coming back tired or banged up, or is it just me?
Yeah, but exactly one horse was able to get within ~8 lengths of that pace. He was clearly best, but closers are struggling in races that aren't 14f stagger-fests.
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Miss Woodford
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:22 pm

Somnambulist wrote:Goldencents has been running very well since the cutback all year. He's not really the best example of a track bias.

Do a lot of horses seem to be coming back tired or banged up, or is it just me?
Just Ever Rider and Centralintelligence, it looks like.
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Kurenai
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:25 pm

Ramsey is such a control freak. *sigh* JJ made the right call when the horse took off with him. Ofc he could have wrestled him down the entire race, but that would have hurt his chances even more IMO.
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Flanders
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:26 pm

I'm having a hard time coming up with a pick for the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
I'm going to go with Vorda, solely because I would love to see a Lure descendant win a BC race. Plus 20 years ago, he won the 1993 Mile at Santa Anita.

But I could see 5 horses winning it. Al Thakhira, Kitten Kaboodle(though since Ramsey acts like a 5yo, I don't want this one to win), Vorda, Cleanor, or My Conquestadory.
Last edited by Flanders on Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Carotene
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:29 pm

They just reported that Centralintelligence was vanned off b/c of "swelling in his right front knee." They are doing x-rays and will "keep us informed" of what they find.

Hope he's ok!
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Somnambulist
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:30 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Goldencents has been running very well since the cutback all year. He's not really the best example of a track bias.

Do a lot of horses seem to be coming back tired or banged up, or is it just me?
Yeah, but exactly one horse was able to get within ~8 lengths of that pace. He was clearly best, but closers are struggling in races that aren't 14f stagger-fests.
It definitely looks rigged, but there have only been three races on the dirt so far, one being the marathon (I think). So toss that one from consideration. I'm not familiar enough with the horses running on the undercard to say whether or not the the closers underperformed. Maybe someone here is? I don't even know if the closers underperformed in the D Mile.. was anyone really expecting Hymn Book to win this?
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Ioya Two
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:32 pm

If My Conquestadory is truely special, I think she can overcome her terrible post. Better shot to win the Juvenile Fillies Turf then Bobby's Kitten did in his.
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BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:34 pm

Word from Dr. Bramlage, Centralintelligence had to be taken off the track in a horse ambulance, showing swelling in the front right knee...being taken back to Ron Ellis' barn for examination. Hoping he's going to be OK. :(
Lakeway
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:36 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Word from Dr. Bramlage, Centralintelligence had to be taken off the track in a horse ambulance, showing swelling in the front right knee...being taken back to Ron Ellis' barn for examination. Hoping he's going to be OK. :(
Thanks for posting - darn - he was checked really bad and then dropped out of it. Would appreciate any news...
mimi6920
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:37 pm

I hate to hear about Centralintelligence. Please update when news arises
Elite Mercedes
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:38 pm

are we forgetting that speed played a big role last year at santa anita as well?
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Ioya Two
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:40 pm

Hasn't Santa Anita pretty much always had a speed bias of some sort? People are acting surprised; it's old news now LOL. :D
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Elite Mercedes
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:40 pm

Ioya Two wrote:Hasn't Santa Anita pretty much always had a speed bias of some sort? People are acting surprised; it's old news now LOL. :D
I thought the same thing
Tessablue
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:42 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Tessablue wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Goldencents has been running very well since the cutback all year. He's not really the best example of a track bias.

Do a lot of horses seem to be coming back tired or banged up, or is it just me?
Yeah, but exactly one horse was able to get within ~8 lengths of that pace. He was clearly best, but closers are struggling in races that aren't 14f stagger-fests.
It definitely looks rigged, but there have only been three races on the dirt so far, one being the marathon (I think). So toss that one from consideration. I'm not familiar enough with the horses running on the undercard to say whether or not the the closers underperformed. Maybe someone here is? I don't even know if the closers underperformed in the D Mile.. was anyone really expecting Hymn Book to win this?
Four dirt races if you toss the Marathon, which you should. Three races won by speed from the outside- Goldencents was best, but the others paid $96 and $77. In the fourth, nobody was able to get near the top four at the finish (and the top four included just one of the top six betting interests). The Dirt Mile didn't have any world-beating closers, but it had some nice horses and somebody should have been able to do something with that pace.

But hey, I'll freely admit to having a chip on my shoulder- I complained about last year's bias from the start, and for some reason got repeatedly flamed for it ("but the MARATHON!" they cried). I'd love to be wrong here- would rather be wrong than watch another frustrating conveyor belt championship series. But it's not looking promising.

(for those saying "but it's always like this," see the Watchmaker analysis posted earlier in this thead. See also: the previous BC's at SA.)
Last edited by Tessablue on Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Miss Woodford
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:44 pm

The speed bias shouldn't affect the Classic either since it's a 10f staggerfest.
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pointgivenfan
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:46 pm

Miss Woodford wrote:The speed bias shouldn't affect the Classic either since it's a 10f staggerfest.
Have you been paying attention to Game on Dude's races?
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