Derby Point Races 2018

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby stark » Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:03 pm

Beyer Speed Ratings.....

Holy Bull 99
Withers 87
Bob Lewis 86
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
 
Posts: 2785
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby bare it all » Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:48 pm

Not impressed by any of these. Speed breeding in the lot. The Holy Bull winner was the best looking but he is a Pletcher in Florida and I’m always suspect of those, Always Dreaming be damned lol
User avatar
bare it all
 
Posts: 980
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:21 pm

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby tcw » Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:24 pm

Agree with others regarding Audible's pedigree with respect to distance, however, on the plus-side he went the 4th quarter in 23 and 4 and closed the final 1/16th in 6 seconds flat, which is very good. His 99 BSF was also by far the best of the 3 races (make that 4 races counting the Swale S.) and it's encouraging that he was able to sit just off of the early pace. He also appeared to switch leads back and forth as he crossed the wire but having just 3 races under his belt, perhaps it can be chalked up to being a bit green. Definitely one to watch going forward.
tcw
 
Posts: 984
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:18 am

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:44 pm

The Withers winner, Avery Island, is by Street Sense out of an A.P. Indy mare. Not sure I would call that 'speed breeding.' :P 8-)
BaroqueAgain1
 
Posts: 8440
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:14 pm

The 3-3-2018 races for derby point.
Gulfstream Park the Holy BULL RACE 12 outcome was a two-horse race with Audible proving he was the best of the field. Audible past the field at the ¾ pole and cleared them by 51/2. Some people will talk him up and think he could win the derby. IF they think .01.92 over the track record is fast then they could be right after all it was listed as a fast track and no one ran are push him after the ¾ pole. Free Drop Billy ran second and now has 14 points for the derby but did not make my derby list were Audible has made my top 12 list.
Aqueduct race 8 the Withers was a very slow race and the great Firenze Fire let a horse run past him at the wire but he did get 4 points out of the race and set up his pattern for the next 3 races. I say he will win the next race, run second the one after that and then win his 3rd race out but that just if you believe in patterns. Avery Island now has 14 points and a slow time, he still has not made my list.
The last point race was Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita Race. They say the track was fast the first two call were fast but after that it was very slow. Lombo wired the field but still do to him given up ground he is not on my Derby list.
I like talking horse and at the young age of 71 I have seen more racing than most of people on most of the horse racing foams. You can always learn something if you ask question and I do ask question even at my age I am still learning things. So what it comes down if the people on this site would like to talk horses I am willing to tell the patterns I see in upcoming races.
BigDonOKC
 
Posts: 44
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby middleground » Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:20 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:The 3-3-2018 races for derby point.
Gulfstream Park the Holy BULL RACE 12 outcome was a two-horse race with Audible proving he was the best of the field. Audible past the field at the ¾ pole and cleared them by 51/2. Some people will talk him up and think he could win the derby. IF they think .01.92 over the track record is fast then they could be right after all it was listed as a fast track and no one ran are push him after the ¾ pole. Free Drop Billy ran second and now has 14 points for the derby but did not make my derby list were Audible has made my top 12 list.
Aqueduct race 8 the Withers was a very slow race and the great Firenze Fire let a horse run past him at the wire but he did get 4 points out of the race and set up his pattern for the next 3 races. I say he will win the next race, run second the one after that and then win his 3rd race out but that just if you believe in patterns. Avery Island now has 14 points and a slow time, he still has not made my list.
The last point race was Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita Race. They say the track was fast the first two call were fast but after that it was very slow. Lombo wired the field but still do to him given up ground he is not on my Derby list.
I like talking horse and at the young age of 71 I have seen more racing than most of people on most of the horse racing foams. You can always learn something if you ask question and I do ask question even at my age I am still learning things. So what it comes down if the people on this site would like to talk horses I am willing to tell the patterns I see in upcoming races.


Welcome to the board. I look forward to your comments.
middleground
 
Posts: 363
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:29 pm

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby bare it all » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:48 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:The Withers winner, Avery Island, is by Street Sense out of an A.P. Indy mare. Not sure I would call that 'speed breeding.' :P 8-)


It'll likely prove out incorrect, but I think the Street Sense want about a mile and that's it. Maybe putting him over the AP Indy mare gets you more, but I don't see him as much +stam even if he did win the Derby. Looking at the mare, she didn't race until 3 and then ran 2 winning races before hitting the shed, one of those a 1 1/8 allowance, so maybe she will add something. The sub-90 beyer he got doesn't inspire me nor does his career being only at AQU.

Reminds me of last year's J Boys Echo.
User avatar
bare it all
 
Posts: 980
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:21 pm

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:00 am

you look at Beyer :lol: :lol: :lol: they haven not been worth or work in years. When they give a HORSE a 80 for a mile at the same time as another Horse who get a 90 make for a bad way to look at speed.

I Developed a program that looks at the speed in yards per second at each call out to 1 1/8 mile then it will project the horse in yard per second out to 1 1/4 mile, The average horse runs 18.33 yards per second.
BigDonOKC
 
Posts: 44
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby stark » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:15 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:you look at Beyer :lol: :lol: :lol: they haven not been worth or work in years. When they give a HORSE a 80 for a mile at the same time as another Horse who get a 90 make for a bad way to look at speed.

I Developed a program that looks at the speed in yards per second at each call out to 1 1/8 mile then it will project the horse in yard per second out to 1 1/4 mile, The average horse runs 18.33 yards per second.


Don,
Just curious, do you sell your information/picks?
I know sharpies like Ragozin and Thorograph have come up with a different criteria system from Beyer and they are quite successful too.

p.s. Welcome to the forum!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
 
Posts: 2785
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:37 pm

Stark I do not write a tip sheet, I tell those who e mail me and some time in the past on some site what I am playing just like I am playing them. The Derby speed chart has give me the winner of the derby for several years and the top 4 going 6 deep for a lot of years. The problem on other forms was a lot of people would get upset if my pick was right they never ask why I picked the way I did. Two years ago I posted my Pick for the Derby a $20.00 ex, tri and super when it came in as I called it they said it was caulk does that matter if it is a winner. When people say they can not play a horse because he is caulk so they will play a horse who will pay big. I would say play the winner.
But back to the question I only run the derby speed chart on the derby, and would be more than glad to post it for you.
BigDonOKC
 
Posts: 44
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

PreviousNext

Return to Racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 6 guests