Accelerate vs Justify HOTY

Who gets your vote?

Justify
18
27%
Accelerate
48
73%
 
Total votes: 66
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ElPrado2
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Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:50 pm

I'm still saying... he beat the horses that lined up against him. Some took the Preakness off and came back for the Belmont. He still beat them. I'm not saying he was Secretariat. What horse could be? In close to a century and a half he was number 13. He did it. Love the connections. Hate his connections. Stare at the wall and ignore the connections. It was the horse that did the job. He did it.
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Charlie
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:32 am

Curtis wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:31 pm

Your eyes? Well, you should have started with that. In my opinion, he bounced in the Preakness and if I had a nickel for every time a horse I bet on would have won a race if it were a few feet shorter or longer, I’d be swimming in nickels. Good Magic came at him pretty good in both the Derby and Preakness and Justify was simply better. Why isn’t Good Magic Justify’s Sham. And before you type it, I know, you think Justify is a sham.
Why should I start off with that? This is obviously my opinion, 99% of this forum is made of opinions, I did not realize I needed to state that for you.

Someone wondered if Secretariat would have run that way without Sham, another person said Justify ran "as fast as needed/wasn't pushed faster". I combined the two and I'm not sure why my original statement was this confusing? Why is GM not Justify's Sham? Well, Secretariat got "pushed" by Sham and broke records, Justify got pushed by Good MAgic and barely crawled away from him in one of the poorest winning Preakness performances I've seen in a while. If Good Magic went with Justify in the Belmont, both would be crawling home and alas no TC winner.

Also, I do not think Justify is a sham, I think he is a talented but overhyped horse that peaked at the right moment but was cycling down quickly, and his connections knew it. Justify was a good horse, not all TC winners are "all time greats" and that's ok.
peeptoad
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:13 am

Tessablue wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:53 pm

However, I just can't quite buy that Good Magic was Justify's Sham, or that his Preakness quite matched Slew's. For one, the article above mentions a rail bias at Pimlico in 1977, which made Slew's task that much tougher. This year, the rail was dead and outside speed had a substantial advantage. Good Magic also wasn't a true speed horse: he was a handy horse who found himself on the lead against his trainer's wishes and ended up pressured from the outside while bogged down on the bad part of the track. He was still only beaten one length (while stuck on the bad rail throughout the stretch run), which I suppose could be either an indictment of Justify's performance or a testament to Good Magic's quality. But does Justify win if you reverse those trips? On the evidence we have, I don't feel confident stating that he would. Outside pressure is a great unknown that Justify never truly faced, and Good Magic had a lot to overcome in that race.
Tough to compare races over decades of course (and as you stated), but Justify was nearly beaten by Bravazo in the Preakness. Bravazo. And I like Bravazo. But, of course, he was nearly beaten and not beaten. So props to Justify, even though he may have had an easier go of it than the horse that pushed him all the way around.




... regarding the poll for HOY I'd be surprised if Justify doesn't walk away with the award. I respect what Accelerate has done and I'd likely vote for him myself if I had the vote, but the TC is still the pinnacle of our ever-evolving sport and it is still elusive. I don't know that any career outside of that would top HOY polls in a year when that it's achieved. I do also wonder if the fact that Accelerate only really managed to come into his own after the knockout trio of Gun Runner, Arrogate and CA Chrome were all retired is going to factor at all. There's a reason he wasn't even entered in the Classic in 2017 (or the year prior). He was beaten repeatedly in G2 and G3 stakes that year; horses do improve spontaneously and on their own, but not having to contend with horses better than he only helped imho. While that shouldn't factor for 2018 it might weigh in the minds of some of the voters.
And I agree with any and all who state that Justify most certainly appears to be one of the "lesser" TC winners we've had, but that's difficult to determine since he didn't get the chance to either prove or disprove that theory. And that's on the owners, not the horse.

The arguments for and against both are pretty legit. I just think the TC will weigh out in the end.
Last edited by peeptoad on Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
barbaro111
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:16 am

ElPrado2 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:50 pm
I'm still saying... he beat the horses that lined up against him. Some took the Preakness off and came back for the Belmont. He still beat them. I'm not saying he was Secretariat. What horse could be? In close to a century and a half he was number 13. He did it. Love the connections. Hate his connections. Stare at the wall and ignore the connections. It was the horse that did the job. He did it.
I love Seattle Slew, but who did he beat in the triple crown races? Sanhendrin? horses go into the gate and the horse that gets to the wire first wins the race, no matter what other horses are in the race. At the end of the day, when they talk about the 13 horses who have won the triple crown, they really don't give a rat's patootie who they beat. they are considered immortals because of this feat. Sure horse fans like to spar about stuff like that, and that is okay but it doesn't change this fact: Justify beat all the horses who ran against him and won the triple crown.
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Curtis
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:21 pm

Charlie wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:32 am
Curtis wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:31 pm

Your eyes? Well, you should have started with that. In my opinion, he bounced in the Preakness and if I had a nickel for every time a horse I bet on would have won a race if it were a few feet shorter or longer, I’d be swimming in nickels. Good Magic came at him pretty good in both the Derby and Preakness and Justify was simply better. Why isn’t Good Magic Justify’s Sham. And before you type it, I know, you think Justify is a sham.
Why should I start off with that? This is obviously my opinion, 99% of this forum is made of opinions, I did not realize I needed to state that for you.

Someone wondered if Secretariat would have run that way without Sham, another person said Justify ran "as fast as needed/wasn't pushed faster". I combined the two and I'm not sure why my original statement was this confusing? Why is GM not Justify's Sham? Well, Secretariat got "pushed" by Sham and broke records, Justify got pushed by Good MAgic and barely crawled away from him in one of the poorest winning Preakness performances I've seen in a while. If Good Magic went with Justify in the Belmont, both would be crawling home and alas no TC winner.

Also, I do not think Justify is a sham, I think he is a talented but overhyped horse that peaked at the right moment but was cycling down quickly, and his connections knew it. Justify was a good horse, not all TC winners are "all time greats" and that's ok.
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Curtis
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:09 pm

Peeptoad, I didn’t completely finish my point regarding Accelerate and the fact the best horses of his crop having been retired. I’ve seen the argument bouncing around that Accelerate should win HOY to send a message to various connections that retire their horses at a time some deem as early. I was at Del Mar all four days of Opening Weekend and I saw a lot of Hronis Bros. horses run in different conditions. Most of those horses probably won’t pan out. Such is the business. So for every Stellar Wind and Accelerate, there are the ghosts of Team Hronis past, present and future that have to be paid for. If Accelerate had earned the same stud deal in 2016 that he got now, he wouldn’t have been kept in training. Now Accelerate improved at five as most all horses would, but he still is in the midst of a weak year in terms of competition and frankly as G1’s the Big ‘Cap is hanging on by it’s cuticles and I’m baffled as to how the Gold Cup, formerly known as Hollywood, even keeps it’s status. Team Hronis and Sadler should be nothing but proud of him because a year ago he would never have won at 10f in top company, let alone do it on multiple occasions. And for anyone who prefers what Accelerate did as opposed to what Justify did, don’t let me talk you out of it. But at the same time, don’t reward Team Hronis and penalize the Evil Empire of Justify for business decisions. After all, it’s not personal......it’s business.
katmandu
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:42 pm

Curtis wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:09 pm
But at the same time, don’t reward Team Hronis and penalize the Evil Empire of Justify for business decisions. After all, it’s not personal......it’s business.
I don't think the point of "rewarding" is to say one is a business decision and one isn't. . . .
peeptoad
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:10 pm

Curtis wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:09 pm
Peeptoad, I didn’t completely finish my point regarding Accelerate and the fact the best horses of his crop having been retired. I’ve seen the argument bouncing around that Accelerate should win HOY to send a message to various connections that retire their horses at a time some deem as early. I was at Del Mar all four days of Opening Weekend and I saw a lot of Hronis Bros. horses run in different conditions. Most of those horses probably won’t pan out. Such is the business. So for every Stellar Wind and Accelerate, there are the ghosts of Team Hronis past, present and future that have to be paid for. If Accelerate had earned the same stud deal in 2016 that he got now, he wouldn’t have been kept in training. Now Accelerate improved at five as most all horses would, but he still is in the midst of a weak year in terms of competition and frankly as G1’s the Big ‘Cap is hanging on by it’s cuticles and I’m baffled as to how the Gold Cup, formerly known as Hollywood, even keeps it’s status. Team Hronis and Sadler should be nothing but proud of him because a year ago he would never have won at 10f in top company, let alone do it on multiple occasions. And for anyone who prefers what Accelerate did as opposed to what Justify did, don’t let me talk you out of it. But at the same time, don’t reward Team Hronis and penalize the Evil Empire of Justify for business decisions. After all, it’s not personal......it’s business.
I actually don't think either side/team will be rewarded or penalized, regardless of the outcome of the vote. I don't think anyone will even remember long enough for the outcome to really change anything. Maybe I'm wrong (I don't own racehorses after all).
Three years ago many people thought Pharoah winning the Crown would revive the sport and pique a billion new players' interest in the game and that didn't happen (not that I can tell subjectively anyway).
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Curtis
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:18 pm

katmandu wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:42 pm
Curtis wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:09 pm
But at the same time, don’t reward Team Hronis and penalize the Evil Empire of Justify for business decisions. After all, it’s not personal......it’s business.
I don't think the point of "rewarding" is to say one is a business decision and one isn't. . . .
I’m not sure everyone sees that distinction though. I think that there are many that see what Team Hronis did as a grand sporting gesture. It wasn’t, had they retired Accelerate in 2016, he’d be standing at Harris Farms for 5k tops. Leaving him in training through 5 and waiting out the cream of his crop and capitalizing on the paucity of talent of the crop that followed, enhanced his value. That’s why I don’t buy the Audible conspiracy. He’s a NY bred with questionable value as a stallion. Rattling off several restricted G1’s could have meant the difference between retiring to WinStar, Upstate NY or Korea. If Accelerate, City if Light, etc. maintain their form through the Pegasus that might be too salty for him. As I said let the horses do the talking. I much prefer that then their people.
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Charlie
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:32 pm

Curtis wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:21 pm
Charlie wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:32 am
Curtis wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:31 pm

Your eyes? Well, you should have started with that. In my opinion, he bounced in the Preakness and if I had a nickel for every time a horse I bet on would have won a race if it were a few feet shorter or longer, I’d be swimming in nickels. Good Magic came at him pretty good in both the Derby and Preakness and Justify was simply better. Why isn’t Good Magic Justify’s Sham. And before you type it, I know, you think Justify is a sham.


Why should I start off with that? This is obviously my opinion, 99% of this forum is made of opinions, I did not realize I needed to state that for you.

Someone wondered if Secretariat would have run that way without Sham, another person said Justify ran "as fast as needed/wasn't pushed faster". I combined the two and I'm not sure why my original statement was this confusing? Why is GM not Justify's Sham? Well, Secretariat got "pushed" by Sham and broke records, Justify got pushed by Good MAgic and barely crawled away from him in one of the poorest winning Preakness performances I've seen in a while. If Good Magic went with Justify in the Belmont, both would be crawling home and alas no TC winner.

Also, I do not think Justify is a sham, I think he is a talented but overhyped horse that peaked at the right moment but was cycling down quickly, and his connections knew it. Justify was a good horse, not all TC winners are "all time greats" and that's ok.
Do you bet?
Yes? And what does that have to do with anything?
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Curtis
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Sat Nov 17, 2018 2:06 pm

I just wondered. Bettors form opinions in different ways than those that don’t, I’ve found. Not better—no pun intended but I’ll take credit if you liked it—but different. Secretariat, his son Border Run greatly influences my opinion—he headbutts if you don’t agree with him, is the best horse I’ve ever seen and Sham was easily in the top three I’ve seen prep in CA but neither because of records.
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Mylute
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Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:37 pm

Image

TL;DR Paulick votes Justify simply because "it's always been that way lol".
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
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Big Ten
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Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:53 am

Had Justify won the Triple Crown in 2014, he'd be Horse of the Year. But since AP already did it in 2015, he gets penalized since we already saw AP do it. California Chrome was the 2014 HotY and he failed to win the Belmont and didn't win a dirt race again after the Preakness until 5.

Winning a Triple Crown is hard to do. That's why only 13 horses have done it. There is a BC Classic winner every year and there is nothing special in Accelerate's 5YO season that stood out over other older horses who have won the BC Classic or Older Male Eclipse. Is his season anymore special than Mineshaft or Invasor?

Many people will forget Accelerate years from now. People will ask what race did Accelerate win in 2018 that you remembered and not many will have an answer for it. Justify will be the 2018 Horse of the Year. We should be celebrating Team Baffert. Not bashing them. May never see a trilogy like this again..

American Pharoah
Arrogate
Justify
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
barbaro111
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Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:54 am

Big Ten wrote:
Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:53 am
Had Justify won the Triple Crown in 2014, he'd be Horse of the Year. But since AP already did it in 2015, he gets penalized since we already saw AP do it. California Chrome was the 2014 HotY and he failed to win the Belmont and didn't win a dirt race again after the Preakness until 5.

Winning a Triple Crown is hard to do. That's why only 13 horses have done it. There is a BC Classic winner every year and there is nothing special in Accelerate's 5YO season that stood out over other older horses who have won the BC Classic or Older Male Eclipse. Is his season anymore special than Mineshaft or Invasor?

Many people will forget Accelerate years from now. People will ask what race did Accelerate win in 2018 that you remembered and not many will have an answer for it. Justify will be the 2018 Horse of the Year. We should be celebrating Team Baffert. Not bashing them. May never see a trilogy like this again..

American Pharoah
Arrogate
Justify

well stated---
barbaro111
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Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:58 am

Mylute wrote:
Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:37 pm
Image

TL;DR Paulick votes Justify simply because "it's always been that way lol".
naming Justify horse of the year is not rewarding the owners or trainer- it is really rewarding the horse himself- it is for his reputation down thru the ages -- i don't understand why people feel like they are going to punish the connections by not naming a certain horse because they are pissed off for various reasons with the connections.
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ElPrado2
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Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:52 pm

That is what is bothering me. Why punish the horse? He can't make the decisions. He still won the triple crown. Why look for sainthood in the horse? Secretariat spoiled us. Affirmed spoiled us. Seattle Slew spoiled us. Now, the owners are not saints, they don't stand nobly gazing over a green expanse of grass and flowers like humble yet noble people trying to make sense of what just happened. (Actually, they all had a pretty good clue.) This hurts your feelings.😪 You want sainthood from the owners. I'm sorry, Ms Chenery died.😇

Look on the bright side..you won't need to learn to use chopsticks.
Tessablue
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Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:30 pm

The horse doesn't care.
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ElPrado2
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Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:58 pm

Oooh... there's an echo in here.
sweettalk
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Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:38 pm

Big Ten wrote:
Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:53 am
Had Justify won the Triple Crown in 2014, he'd be Horse of the Year. But since AP already did it in 2015, he gets penalized since we already saw AP do it.
that's definitely not even close to why i'd choose accelerate over him. this year, accelerate was more impressive. this spring, justify was. i don't like handing a horse an award for something they did in easrly june, then going to the shed. AP kept racing and kept winning. this icludes against older. justify...? caused internet wars.
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Charlie
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Sat Nov 24, 2018 8:47 pm

Big Ten wrote:
Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:53 am
Had Justify won the Triple Crown in 2014, he'd be Horse of the Year. But since AP already did it in 2015, he gets penalized since we already saw AP do it. California Chrome was the 2014 HotY and he failed to win the Belmont and didn't win a dirt race again after the Preakness until 5.

Winning a Triple Crown is hard to do. That's why only 13 horses have done it. There is a BC Classic winner every year and there is nothing special in Accelerate's 5YO season that stood out over other older horses who have won the BC Classic or Older Male Eclipse. Is his season anymore special than Mineshaft or Invasor?

Many people will forget Accelerate years from now. People will ask what race did Accelerate win in 2018 that you remembered and not many will have an answer for it. Justify will be the 2018 Horse of the Year. We should be celebrating Team Baffert. Not bashing them. May never see a trilogy like this again..

American Pharoah
Arrogate
Justify

First, if I remember correctly, there was no "Accelerate" the year Chrome won his HOY

Second, I will not rehash what has already been stated but very few horses have won the races Accelerate has won this year, I believe Cigar was the last one? (If I'm not getting horses confused).

Arrogate was a 4 race wonder and Justify was a 4-month wonder. I sincerely we don't have many of those. I wish AP stayed as a 4 yr old b he would have been a monster but at least he raced throughout the rest of his 3 yr old year.
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