Jerome Stakes (Grade 2) - 01/04/14

PJMIII
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Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:46 am

8th Race - Aqueduct - Saturday, January 4th, 2014 STAKES. 1 Mile 70Y Dirt. Purse $200,000. Jerome S. (Grade 2). INNER DIRT FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.

PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Noble Moon 3 C L 115 Ortiz, Jr. Irad Gyarmati Leah
2 Scotland 3 C L 115 Cohen David Dutrow Anthony W.
3 Lawmaker 3 C L 115 Ortiz Jose L. Brown Chad C.
4 Pin And Win 3 C L 115 Castellano, Jr. Abel Lostritto Joseph A.
5 Matuszak 3 C L 115 Maragh Rajiv Mott William I.
6 Mental Iceberg 3 G L 115 Arroyo Angel S. DiPrima Gregory
7 Classic Giacnroll 3 C L 117 Solis Alex O. Guerrero Lisa
8 Master Lightning 3 C L 119 Velasquez Cornelio H. Pletcher Todd A.
Sound of Freedom
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Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:01 pm

Guess Lawmaker, but the 9f allowance race at Gulfstream tomorrow has a better field, and Saturday Constitution debuts.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1286946
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ElPrado2
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Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:14 pm

Just for fun, I will go with Matuszak. I met the man once.
PJMIII
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Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:37 am

I think I'll go with Lawmaker in this spot.
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:53 pm

Are there any horses with polar bear in their bloodlines? :mrgreen:
The track may be half-frozen mud, and the jockeys might need hand-warmers just to hang on to the reins. God help the horses...I hope they've started their winter coats.
Sound of Freedom
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Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:57 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Are there any horses with polar bear in their bloodlines? :mrgreen:
The track may be half-frozen mud, and the jockeys might need hand-warmers just to hang on to the reins. God help the horses...I hope they've started their winter coats.
This is why you don't leave good TC caliber horses in NY for the winter. Worst group of G2 horses for a TC race I have ever seen. A maiden could win this. Grade 2. lol

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1047280
Somnambulist
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Fri Jan 03, 2014 7:08 pm

Sound of Freedom wrote:This is why you don't leave good TC caliber horses in NY for the winter. Worst group of G2 horses for a TC race I have ever seen. A maiden could win this. Grade 2. lol

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1047280
And this is why they warn you not to drink during pregnancy.

For someone who dislikes NY racing so much you sure do love writing home about it.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Sound of Freedom
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Fri Jan 03, 2014 7:11 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Sound of Freedom wrote:This is why you don't leave good TC caliber horses in NY for the winter. Worst group of G2 horses for a TC race I have ever seen. A maiden could win this. Grade 2. lol

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1047280
And this is why they warn you not to drink during pregnancy.

For someone who dislikes NY racing so much you sure do love writing home about it.
I bet NY more than anywhere else. This is a terrible G2 with bad horses. If you can't see that you should renew your NYRA cult membership with Thinair.

Did Pletcher leave Revolutionary in NY when he figured out he had talent? NO. No horse with talent should be there risking a shot at the Derby based on awful weather.
Sound of Freedom
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Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:50 pm

Horses will wake up to 2 degree temperatures on race day. A balmy 20 at post.

Mental Iceberg is a lock to win this thing with that name.
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Raven
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Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:52 pm

Master Lightning is my pick in this race.
You will soon break the bow if you keep it always stretched ~Faedus~
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dustino140
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Sat Jan 04, 2014 12:39 am

SoF is correct in this not being a deep race, but I'm interested in seeing how Noble Moon performs. I thought his debut was exceptional and he seemed to get intimidated and jostled at the beginning of the Nashua that caused him to lose some ground late. I'm not sure what to make of the win margin in the Nashua - if he and Financial Mogul were closing well or if Cairo Price was wrapped up for the day, but given the adversity it was a decent effort for a horse in its 2nd start.

I'm a bit interested that Solis ended up on Classic Giacnroll and not Noble Moon.
Senator L
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Sat Jan 04, 2014 1:19 am

Going with the 3 lawmaker
Good luck
No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse.
Richard Sasuly
Matt Converse
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Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:35 am

The Giacomo has improved in every start, 77 to 85 last time, if he improves again that puts him close to the Beyer Commissioner and Top Billing put up yesterday and we'll probably see them in a Grade 1 or 2 next. He's also been running at the end of all his shorter races, and he's fired a bullet over the course. I don't see too much to dislike. Noble's Moon's 12th to 3rd behind Cairo Prince after being bumped at the start wasn't too shabby either. Scotland went for $310k, has run 2nd in both maiden tries but his Beyer improved from 56 to 78 in his last try at this track. Lawmaker won his debut going a mile, so have to give him props there, but he'll have to improve to contend with better horses here. Master Lightening should enjoy the cutback but isn't terribly fast for a front-runner. I can't find much to like about the longshots.

1,7 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,3,7 with 1,2,3,7,8

7-Classic Giacnroll
1-Noble Moon
2-Scotland
3-Lawmaker
8-Master Lightening
Izvestia
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Sat Jan 04, 2014 10:41 am

I like Classic Giacnroll, as well.
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Ballerina
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Location: Chesapeake, VA & Saratoga, NY

Sat Jan 04, 2014 12:02 pm

I'd like Leah to have a shot at this. She's got a good horse.
peeptoad
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Sat Jan 04, 2014 12:13 pm

Senator L wrote:Going with the 3 lawmaker
Good luck
ditto.
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dustino140
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Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:51 pm

I can see the love for Lawmaker and Classic Giancnroll, but I have significant reservations with each.

For Lawmaker, I'm looking at that Laurel debut and the accompanying low speed figures. I think there's a reason that Brown sent the horse down to Laurel to run for a $40K purse, when he would have been running for probably $60K at home. Brown only ran 3 horses at Laurel in 2013. The runner-up from that maiden win, Buck n Ham Lane, was a runaway winner next out against a small and poor field at Laurel, but was nowhere in a MD-bred juvy stakes after that and hasn't improved from a numbers standpoint.

For Classic Giancnroll, he falls into a bad category for me as I personally don't like betting closing sprinters who are stretching around two-turns for the first time. It's easy to like the Beyer progression - and to expect an improved effort second off the layoff - but I'm just very leery to back him here. I have no reason to expect that he's going to like two turns, and maybe I'm a bit of a racing snob, but the horse has been playing in the minor leagues at Parx and Laurel. Plus, if nothing else, where is the pace going to come from?

For Scotland, he needs to win first to be, IMO, a 7/2 horse.

Master Lightning, while Pletcher's H-string (I had initially innocently typed Pletcher's G-string, but then laughed and changed it...), actually has some upside to me. He's absolutely proven around two-turns, and over this track, and has some early foot that could help him stay on.

Late Pick 4 -

6 - Busanda

#1 Flipcup - Ran well in first start for Weaver, running away from small field in first dirt try
#4 Camille Claudel - No idea what she beat in 19-length sloppy MSW romp at Laurel, but that's eye-catching
#5 Ketel Twist - Stretches back around two-turns, which is probably her preferred trip
#7 Fleet of Gold - Added Lasix and blinkers last time at Laurel for Tony Dutrow and responded with easy win

7
#2 Endless Chatter - Brown-charge likes inner but needs to fire fresh to win this
#6 What the Frost - Rudy/Cornelio hitting at 38% in last 60, likes distance

8 - Jerome
#1 Noble Tune - Think he's just the best of a very mediocre bunch

9
#2 Gabrilicious - First time Rudy, gets Irad Ortiz, bombs away at 10/1 ML
#6 Score Boyera - Jacobsen/Cohen runner is 2-for-3 on inner, drops off win
#12 Speedy Lee D - Odds in Rudy's favor to take the nightcap with one of the two making their first start in his barn?

= $12
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dustino140
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Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:35 pm

My Pick 4 went to hell. Speed continues to be strong.
sweettalk
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Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:48 pm

if mental iceberg means brain freeze, as an avid fan of 7-11 slushees, i can't not like this horse, odds aside.
sweettalk
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Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:51 pm

sweettalk wrote:if mental iceberg means brain freeze, as an avid fan of 7-11 slushees, i can't not like this horse, odds aside.
ok maybe back to the grass? that's where he won last.
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