Overpriced Stallions

Mel Mae
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Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:26 pm

Giant's Causeway may not be a flashy stallion like the Tapits and Galileos of the world but he's definitely not overpriced. You have a live shot of getting a good horse every time you breed to him and he seems to always have live horses in the stakes ranks.
BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:25 pm

On the subject of War Front:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... ype-winner

Some of the comments seem to back the opinion that he may be overpriced, especially for a US-based stallion. I like the comparison to Freud, who also just had his 50th black-type winner, but who stands for one twentieth the cost of War Front. :P
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Starine
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Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:30 pm

Vandalay wrote:I nominate Super Saver,..He's $65K and being outperformed on the 3rd crop list by stallions that are a fraction of his fee
Dang. I didn't realize he was standing for that much.
Acadiana
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Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:44 pm

Vandalay wrote:I nominate Super Saver,..He's $65K and being outperformed on the 3rd crop list by stallions that are a fraction of his fee
I agree. You can go to Tiznow for less at the same farm :lol:
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Miss Woodford
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Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:21 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:On the subject of War Front:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... ype-winner

Some of the comments seem to back the opinion that he may be overpriced, especially for a US-based stallion. I like the comparison to Freud, who also just had his 50th black-type winner, but who stands for one twentieth the cost of War Front. :P
War Front is #30 on the leading sire list, between Northern Afleet ($6,500) and Bluegrass Cat ($7,500).
Somnambulist
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Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:44 pm

For the longest time I thought Bernardini was, but I've sort of come around.
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Northport
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Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:07 pm

Somnambulist wrote:For the longest time I thought Bernardini was, but I've sort of come around.
Meh, I still think he was for 2012-2014. He got bumped from $75,000 in 2011 to $150,000 for 2012/2013 and then cooled wayyyyy down, but only got a drop to $100,000 in 2014
weeeeeeeee
Horsebagger
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Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:27 am

Northport wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:For the longest time I thought Bernardini was, but I've sort of come around.
Meh, I still think he was for 2012-2014. He got bumped from $75,000 in 2011 to $150,000 for 2012/2013 and then cooled wayyyyy down, but only got a drop to $100,000 in 2014
He's (in my opinion) back to a more appropriate level now, and will likely use him this coming winter after having struck out a couple times (struck out = being outbid) trying to buy a yearling filly by him the past two years. Despite having some strong success with his offspring on the track, I continue to believe his greatest breeding impact will be as a broodmare sire.
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Insane Crazy
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Thu Sep 01, 2016 11:19 am

Horsebagger wrote:
Northport wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:For the longest time I thought Bernardini was, but I've sort of come around.
Meh, I still think he was for 2012-2014. He got bumped from $75,000 in 2011 to $150,000 for 2012/2013 and then cooled wayyyyy down, but only got a drop to $100,000 in 2014
He's (in my opinion) back to a more appropriate level now, and will likely use him this coming winter after having struck out a couple times (struck out = being outbid) trying to buy a yearling filly by him the past two years. Despite having some strong success with his offspring on the track, I continue to believe his greatest breeding impact will be as a broodmare sire.
Just curious, is there any particular reason for that? I've a soft spot for stallions whose legacy is stamped through their daughters, so I'm interested to hear your perspective.
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Horsebagger
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Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:53 pm

Insane Crazy wrote: Just curious, is there any particular reason for that? I've a soft spot for stallions whose legacy is stamped through their daughters, so I'm interested to hear your perspective.
I guess I would start out by saying he's got blue blood throughout, yet with a pedigree lacking in many modern day thoroughbred crosses typically found in our population here in the US. (i.e...No Storm Cat, primarily). His fillies are unlikely to be overburdened with multiple crosses too far up in their pedigree that will potentially prove more difficult to cross with their prospective stallions in future generations.
jimzin
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Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:44 pm

Retrospectiv wrote:Agreed on all fronts on War Front.
We already knew he got some good 2yr olds.....but they don't seem to train on at all. With the improved mares I'd be wanting to see some hitters as 3 and 4yr olds for sure.

I just can't knock Giant's Causeway. His books have been far from selective many years and he's still always managed to stay near the top of the sires lists.



This is not what the stats show. Giant's Causeway has the second highest lifetime CI of active sires, meaning he is getting the top mares. (Bernardini has the higest active CI which lends support to those who feel he is overpriced and underperforming) Plus, just by the sheer numbers of foals GC has sired he should be high on the sires list.
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Retrospectiv
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Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:34 pm

jimzin wrote:
Retrospectiv wrote:Agreed on all fronts on War Front.
We already knew he got some good 2yr olds.....but they don't seem to train on at all. With the improved mares I'd be wanting to see some hitters as 3 and 4yr olds for sure.

I just can't knock Giant's Causeway. His books have been far from selective many years and he's still always managed to stay near the top of the sires lists.



This is not what the stats show. Giant's Causeway has the second highest lifetime CI of active sires, meaning he is getting the top mares. (Bernardini has the higest active CI which lends support to those who feel he is overpriced and underperforming) Plus, just by the sheer numbers of foals GC has sired he should be high on the sires list.
Yes....but remember this is "lifetime" CI. Early in his stud career when he was shiny and new he received wonderful mares. The books the top young sires receive now. I'd bet if you looked at year to date or last few years CI you'd see a drop there for sure. You could say the same for say, Fusaichi Pegasus. Betting he had a crazy high CI his first 5+ years at stud. Compared to now......?

Regardless.....still consider GC a good sire and at $85,000 perhaps less overpriced that some.
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Flanders
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Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:21 am

War Front's 2yos are on fire, I don't see a drop in price anytime soon. I think he has 6 SWing 2yos this year and more that are stakes placed. Remember these are still ones bred at 80k, his yearlings and weanlings were bred at 150k. 2016 was the first year he covered at 200k.

I couldn't imagine paying 200k but if breeders weren't willing to pay it, they would have to drop his fee. But instead people will pay more to get a season. He has some really nicely bred yearlings in the Keeneland sale next week, it will be interesting to see what they bring. Last November three members of this crop sold for $2,000,000, $2,600,000 and $3,200,000 with only one being bought by Coolmore.
Quiet Chris
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Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:55 am

Flanders wrote:War Front's 2yos are on fire, I don't see a drop in price anytime soon. I think he has 6 SWing 2yos this year and more that are stakes placed. Remember these are still ones bred at 80k, his yearlings and weanlings were bred at 150k. 2016 was the first year he covered at 200k.
He hasn't ever had a Classic winner or any Breeders Cup winner as far as I can tell. His top runner this year has earned $250K and he is a G2 caliber grass horse. I don't get it. Tapit at $300K is steep but he has winner after winner. It is logical.
Mel Mae
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Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:25 am

Quiet Chris wrote:
Flanders wrote:War Front's 2yos are on fire, I don't see a drop in price anytime soon. I think he has 6 SWing 2yos this year and more that are stakes placed. Remember these are still ones bred at 80k, his yearlings and weanlings were bred at 150k. 2016 was the first year he covered at 200k.
He hasn't ever had a Classic winner or any Breeders Cup winner as far as I can tell.
Hit It A Bomb disagrees with your Breeders' Cup winner statement (Declaration of War was also a head away from winning the BC Classic).
Quiet Chris
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Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:41 am

Mel Mae wrote:
Quiet Chris wrote:
Flanders wrote:War Front's 2yos are on fire, I don't see a drop in price anytime soon. I think he has 6 SWing 2yos this year and more that are stakes placed. Remember these are still ones bred at 80k, his yearlings and weanlings were bred at 150k. 2016 was the first year he covered at 200k.
He hasn't ever had a Classic winner or any Breeders Cup winner as far as I can tell.
Hit It A Bomb disagrees with your Breeders' Cup winner statement (Declaration of War was also a head away from winning the BC Classic).
My mistake. I didn't know anyone took the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf seriously. Almost as bad as G1 2ur old races at Saratoga and Del Mar being taken seriously.
Mel Mae
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Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:44 am

Quiet Chris wrote:
Mel Mae wrote:
Quiet Chris wrote:
He hasn't ever had a Classic winner or any Breeders Cup winner as far as I can tell.
Hit It A Bomb disagrees with your Breeders' Cup winner statement (Declaration of War was also a head away from winning the BC Classic).
My mistake. I didn't know anyone took the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf seriously. Almost as bad as G1 2ur old races at Saratoga and Del Mar being taken seriously. Hit A Bomb can't even win a G3 in Europe. He beat arguably the worst field ever assembled for a BC race.
Just because you're wrong doesn't mean you should attack the horse (or the person who corrected you) for it. You would have been better off just leaving it at "My mistake." People look a lot more kindly on that (and your life on the boards would be much better). Also, it should be noted that the last 3 G1 Del Mar Futurities have had the following year's Kentucky Derby winner in them so you bet people take them seriously.
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Flanders
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Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:25 pm

Quiet Chris wrote:
Flanders wrote:War Front's 2yos are on fire, I don't see a drop in price anytime soon. I think he has 6 SWing 2yos this year and more that are stakes placed. Remember these are still ones bred at 80k, his yearlings and weanlings were bred at 150k. 2016 was the first year he covered at 200k.
He hasn't ever had a Classic winner or any Breeders Cup winner as far as I can tell. His top runner this year has earned $250K and he is a G2 caliber grass horse. I don't get it. Tapit at $300K is steep but he has winner after winner. It is logical.
He probably isn't going to get a US Classic winner since most of his foals are turf racers. His lack of success at the Classic level in Europe is puzzling, I don't know why his top European 2yos of the past haven't trained on at 3. He gets good older horses though. He doesn't have big foal crops to challenge for leading General sire but is currently the leading 2yo sire. His blacktype and Graded stakes winner numbers rank him 2nd(Blacktype) and 3rd(Graded Stakes) on the General Sires list. He is lacking in G1SWs this year but he has 11 over 7 crops, that isn't a bad number. To appreciate him you have to follow turf racing and European racing. I think he is an excellent sire.

Tapit is crazy good.
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Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:57 pm

I admit my reaction was who the heck is Hit It The Bomb? As everyone here knows, that's what I hate about the new non-champ-caliber BC races. The winners should be a Who's Who, not just a Who?

I can't say War Front isn't a good sire, only that his fee seems more reasonable at $100k instead if trading at $300k. Tapit he is not. He has a "hot" rep that is a vicious cycle of overpaying at every point.
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carole
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Sat Sep 10, 2016 5:53 am

Flanders wrote:
Quiet Chris wrote:
Flanders wrote:War Front's 2yos are on fire, I don't see a drop in price anytime soon. I think he has 6 SWing 2yos this year and more that are stakes placed. Remember these are still ones bred at 80k, his yearlings and weanlings were bred at 150k. 2016 was the first year he covered at 200k.
He hasn't ever had a Classic winner or any Breeders Cup winner as far as I can tell. His top runner this year has earned $250K and he is a G2 caliber grass horse. I don't get it. Tapit at $300K is steep but he has winner after winner. It is logical.
He probably isn't going to get a US Classic winner since most of his foals are turf racers. His lack of success at the Classic level in Europe is puzzling, I don't know why his top European 2yos of the past haven't trained on at 3. He gets good older horses though. He doesn't have big foal crops to challenge for leading General sire but is currently the leading 2yo sire. His blacktype and Graded stakes winner numbers rank him 2nd(Blacktype) and 3rd(Graded Stakes) on the General Sires list. He is lacking in G1SWs this year but he has 11 over 7 crops, that isn't a bad number. To appreciate him you have to follow turf racing and European racing. I think he is an excellent sire.

Tapit is crazy good.
Maybe his 2yos just develop much quicker than the Euro sired ones and then they get caught up with when they hit their sophmore year?
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