Presidential Election Predictions

Quiet Chris
Posts: 237
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:14 am

Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:51 pm

Sure this doesn't belong in racing, but is there really a bigger horse race than the Presidential Election.

Make your predictions. Not who you want, but what you think will happen.

My prediction

Hillary wins Popular vote 48-47.
Trump wins electoral college thanks to Michigan with 275 electoral votes.

Donald Trump wins the Presidency by a nose.
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:53 pm

Who cares? I'm just happy I only have 2 full days left of campaign adds.

I can only hope that it goes to the House to decide and becomes more of a shit show to watch than it already has been. Cause why not.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Quiet Chris
Posts: 237
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:14 am

Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:58 pm

Somnambulist wrote:Who cares? I'm just happy I only have 2 full days left of campaign adds.

I can only hope that it goes to the House to decide and becomes more of a shit show to watch than it already has been. Cause why not.
If you like entertainment, stay tuned tomorrow. Big story dropping according to my old friends in the black hatter community. If true, it is biggest story of race. Thank Kim.dotcom who did the dirty work.
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:04 pm

There is nothing entertaining about this election. This is literally picking if I want my country to have stage 4 pancreatic cancer or DiPG. I can only hope that somehow I avoid all new circuits for the next 4.5 years.

However since everyone I know is working this election TV side I doubt that I do. Poor me.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
middleground
Posts: 431
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:29 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:24 pm

Oh, if we're going to have political threads, can I start one about my childhood? Or maybe I could talk about what I had for breakfast (cereal and coffee).
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:25 pm

middleground wrote:Oh, if we're going to have political threads, can I start one about my childhood? Or maybe I could talk about what I had for breakfast.
I had whole wheat toast with peanut butter and sliced, fried banana and eggs whites with feta. What did you have?
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
middleground
Posts: 431
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:29 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:27 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
middleground wrote:Oh, if we're going to have political threads, can I start one about my childhood? Or maybe I could talk about what I had for breakfast.
I had whole wheat toast with peanut butter and sliced, fried banana and eggs whites with feta. What did you have?
Cheerios and a bucket of coffee.
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:30 pm

Anyone else want to contribute? No offense to middleground but personally I think I'm winning the best breakfast award currently. ;)
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Quiet Chris
Posts: 237
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:14 am

Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:38 pm

middleground wrote:Oh, if we're going to have political threads, can I start one about my childhood? Or maybe I could talk about what I had for breakfast (cereal and coffee).
No, because you are a nobody and not running for President.

This happens once every 4 years. And it is routinely referred to as a "horse race". I could care less about your breakfast but I am curious about PREDICTIONS.
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:41 pm

Surely since you're so important you have better people to talk about this with.. what, with all your connections.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Quiet Chris
Posts: 237
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:14 am

Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:44 pm

Somnambulist wrote:Surely since you're so important you have better people to talk about this with.. what, with all your connections.
Not gamblers. They don't let gamblers do what I do because of the potential risk. I got a pass because of my MIMIC software they wanted.
Horsebagger
Posts: 1937
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:20 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:49 pm

Blah, blah, blah......
BaroqueAgain1
Posts: 9715
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:52 pm

I had a protein shake with banana, blueberries, peach and pear in blackberry juice.
With the way this presidential campaign has gone, staying with an easy-to-digest breakfast is the only way I can keep my acid reflux at bay. The ridiculous rancor hasn't helped my blood pressure, either. :roll:
Apollo
Posts: 293
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:05 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 8:55 pm

Hillary wins. And therefore planet Earth wins.

I'd say 2.5 to 3 points margin and 292 electoral votes. The disgraceful FBI director panicked a week ago Friday and cost her a couple of points and maybe a state or two. Trump launched the "worse than Watergate" garbage that was a 50 trillion to 1 longshot but therefore apropos of so many other things he has said. Comey walked it back this afternoon, indicating what was always the likelihood, that there was nothing additional there, merely emails that had already been reviewed. The networks won't give the retraction the emphasis it warrants but at least it's better than nothing. That FOX News guy from a few days ago was more hilarious than anything else. Indictment, sure. I wish he made the betting odds on everything.

Hillary has low upside as a known quantity for a quarter century and with Benghazi and emails out there. One year ago I thought Hillary was likely to lose a squeaker, thanks to white working class males shifting several more points toward the GOP. That should have been the outcome. But luckily the Simplistic Angry Males (SAMs) who control that party brainstormed to nominate the ultimate SAM in Donald Trump. I'm not sure Hillary could have defeated anyone else. But with Trump moving Hispanics and white females many points more Democratic this cycle than they normally would be, the white working class numbers are overcome.

Republicans have one basic problem, but to date they are too ignorant to realize it. I hope they never figure it out. Hate is not an attractant. The theme this cycle is essentially, "I hate her. Come join me." Good luck with that. Do you have anyone else I need to hate?

It equates to no margin for error and an steadily shrinking base, given demographic shifts that are still in early stage. Unless whites turn out at historic level, the GOP has a low max.

56% of Hillary supporters report they are "voting for" her as opposed to "voting against" Trump. That may not be conventional wisdom but it's all the difference. Only 37-41% of Trump backers indicate they are "voting for" him. That's the great regulator and the lowest number in modern history. For reference, 68% of Obama voters in 2008 said they were "for" him and not "against" McCain. Every time I see a rightwing sig on this site or other sites that attacks the opposition as opposed to boosting their own side, I have to mostly laugh. Those people seemingly have no clue they are enabling the path to defeat. Negativity works well in midterms when the electorate changes as single females don't show up. When everybody participates you need a positive backdrop, even if it is combined with spotlighting flaws in the opposing side and opposing candidate.

Rush Limbaugh unintentionally opened the door for this shift in Democratic political fortune at the presidential level. Previously the high profile conservative voices were guys like William Buckley and a young George Will. They would articulate a handful of big picture themes. The "vote for" numbers were naturally high. Once Limbaugh showed up I absolutely loved it. It became, "Never prevent a conservative from sounding like a conservative." Keep talking. Never stop talking. SAM I Am. Get those Limbaugh clones on every station. It may stimulate the base but it self inflicts via hate, bigotry, fear and exclusion. All the wonderful qualities and goals.
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:24 pm

Omg why did anyone take it seriously.

What did everyone have for dinner.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Horsebagger
Posts: 1937
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:20 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:29 pm

Celebratory steak at Keen's in Manhattan. you?
racefan
Posts: 100
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2013 2:40 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:37 pm

You should be on one of the networks. Nobody broke this down better.

I'll add that Trump was in big trouble the entire time, because he never could secure North Carolina. The biggest issue facing the GOP in the presidential race is the loss of Virginia (3 straight elections) and North Carolina (two of the last 3 if Hillary wins it Tuesday). That's about 30 electoral votes they always had in the bag before 2008 that they have not replaced. It was already narrow for them before 2008, now they have a tougher road.

Although if Trump wins Ohio, that would be impressive.
Apollo wrote:Hillary wins. And therefore planet Earth wins.

I'd say 2.5 to 3 points margin and 292 electoral votes. The disgraceful FBI director panicked a week ago Friday and cost her a couple of points and maybe a state or two. Trump launched the "worse than Watergate" garbage that was a 50 trillion to 1 longshot but therefore apropos of so many other things he has said. Comey walked it back this afternoon, indicating what was always the likelihood, that there was nothing additional there, merely emails that had already been reviewed. The networks won't give the retraction the emphasis it warrants but at least it's better than nothing. That FOX News guy from a few days ago was more hilarious than anything else. Indictment, sure. I wish he made the betting odds on everything.

Hillary has low upside as a known quantity for a quarter century and with Benghazi and emails out there. One year ago I thought Hillary was likely to lose a squeaker, thanks to white working class males shifting several more points toward the GOP. That should have been the outcome. But luckily the Simplistic Angry Males (SAMs) who control that party brainstormed to nominate the ultimate SAM in Donald Trump. I'm not sure Hillary could have defeated anyone else. But with Trump moving Hispanics and white females many points more Democratic this cycle than they normally would be, the white working class numbers are overcome.

Republicans have one basic problem, but to date they are too ignorant to realize it. I hope they never figure it out. Hate is not an attractant. The theme this cycle is essentially, "I hate her. Come join me." Good luck with that. Do you have anyone else I need to hate?

It equates to no margin for error and an steadily shrinking base, given demographic shifts that are still in early stage. Unless whites turn out at historic level, the GOP has a low max.

56% of Hillary supporters report they are "voting for" her as opposed to "voting against" Trump. That may not be conventional wisdom but it's all the difference. Only 37-41% of Trump backers indicate they are "voting for" him. That's the great regulator and the lowest number in modern history. For reference, 68% of Obama voters in 2008 said they were "for" him and not "against" McCain. Every time I see a rightwing sig on this site or other sites that attacks the opposition as opposed to boosting their own side, I have to mostly laugh. Those people seemingly have no clue they are enabling the path to defeat. Negativity works well in midterms when the electorate changes as single females don't show up. When everybody participates you need a positive backdrop, even if it is combined with spotlighting flaws in the opposing side and opposing candidate.

Rush Limbaugh unintentionally opened the door for this shift in Democratic political fortune at the presidential level. Previously the high profile conservative voices were guys like William Buckley and a young George Will. They would articulate a handful of big picture themes. The "vote for" numbers were naturally high. Once Limbaugh showed up I absolutely loved it. It became, "Never prevent a conservative from sounding like a conservative." Keep talking. Never stop talking. SAM I Am. Get those Limbaugh clones on every station. It may stimulate the base but it self inflicts via hate, bigotry, fear and exclusion. All the wonderful qualities and goals.
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:44 pm

Horsebagger wrote:Celebratory steak at Keen's in Manhattan. you?
Mushroom pepperoni pizza with some Weihenstephan.

We're making steak tomorrow. By we I mean my boyfriend.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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pointgivenfan
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Sun Nov 06, 2016 10:05 pm

Does a handful of Tostitos count as dinner?
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Tessablue
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Sun Nov 06, 2016 10:15 pm

Anniversary dinner at our favorite local Italian place! They gave us free cannolis with candle in them :D
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