Justify vs AP at stud

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bare it all
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Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:57 am

So, Pharaoh WAS the only living Triple Crown winner.... is his value now as a stud diminished and devalued because we have Justify? Plus, you can easily breed to AP's sire who is beyond proven himself. I think he was standing in the neighborhood of $75-85K past season, but someone might have better insight there.

What do you think the Coolmore boys will post Justify at? A Triple Crown winning son of the prolific but ill-fated Scat Daddy and out of a lovely female family. I see them easily tossing him out there at 200k and probably not cutting the deal they did for AP.
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Kurenai
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Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:05 pm

I can't see them demanding 200k for Justify. And I also don't think it will hurt AP in any way regarding his stud fee in the long run. The "only living TC winner" is a good marketing point, but that only lasts til the foals hit the track. If they're not performing then that won't help him. Stuff like that only matters for the first 3 years.
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Flanders
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bare it all wrote:So, Pharaoh WAS the only living Triple Crown winner.... is his value now as a stud diminished and devalued because we have Justify? Plus, you can easily breed to AP's sire who is beyond proven himself. I think he was standing in the neighborhood of $75-85K past season, but someone might have better insight there.

What do you think the Coolmore boys will post Justify at? A Triple Crown winning son of the prolific but ill-fated Scat Daddy and out of a lovely female family. I see them easily tossing him out there at 200k and probably not cutting the deal they did for AP.
Pioneerof the Nile stood for $60,000 in 2015, $125,000 in 2016, $110,000 in 2017/2018.

Coolmore will have to go in the 150-200k range for Justify, otherwise they won't hit the break even point fast enough. That is if the $75 million sale price that is being thrown around is true.

The sale price for AP was never disclosed but it was substantially lower because the deal was made when he was still 2yos.
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mariasmon
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Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:10 pm

Whenever I see "AP," I only think A.P. Indy, not American Pharoah.
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Flanders
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Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:14 pm

mariasmon wrote:Whenever I see "AP," I only think A.P. Indy, not American Pharoah.
Yeah I did for a long time as well and still do.
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Treve
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Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:31 pm

I thought Coolmore hadn't even bought Justify's stud rights yet.
I also see lots of wild speculation of Justify's value neighbouring in the 60 mill and 75 mill but we saw similar speculation about Pharoah's value, yet experts in the field yet I saw plenty of people in the industry totally discount the fact anyone would pay anywhere close to that. In the end Pharoah's kickers and stud rights deal was never fully disclosed but I thought the rumours simmered it down by a lot. They bought him before his TC campaign, but Zayat renegotiated and chances are there were kickers built in anyway.

This also totally depends on how/what Justify does throughout the rest of the year and/or the Pegasus World Cup. I don't think whoever stands him can ask 200k for him either, since he isn't the only TC winner standing at stud nor is he the first TC winner in 37 years. Also while Pharoah's book got filled, the market didn't in reality likely tolerate 200k for him, what with that 2 for 1 deal they offered if one of the mares was a graded stakes winner or had produced graded stakes winners (though this could have been part of a ploy to get him the best mares) And while what he has done is extraordinary I'm sure half the appeal of Pharoah beyond being a TC winner is also his 2yo champ title since breeders and buyers bank on precociousness these days. Let's not forget Pharoah closed his career with 9 victories out of 11 starts, all of which came in Graded Stakes with 8 of those G1s. Justify accomplished a mesmerizing defeat of the odds and flipped the bird to 100 years of history between his first start and now, but how does that translate in the mind of commercial breeders?

On the other hand Justify has a much better female family than Pharoah (although it is worth noting that both Stage Magic and Littleprincessemma's broodmare records are perfect thus far - all their starters are winners). But Pharoah has a very consistent sireline going for him in terms of stamping offspring conformationally speaking and biomechanics. Empire Maker likely got it from Unbridled who got it from Fappiano, but I'd say out of all Unbridled's sons Empire Maker seems to have the most consistent sons and grandsons. One need only look at PotN, Bodemeister and now Cairo Prince and their get to see it. We'll know more about Pharoah's yearlings this year. And then Pharoah's offspring will hit the track next year and that will determine his price going forward.
Justify is surely valuable as a Scat Daddy but there are lots of questions about what that could mean exactly in his case particularly. He's entirely different than the typical Scat Daddy aside from being brilliant - he doesn't much look like him or most Scat Daddies, and he wasn't a precocious runner - and I wonder how that'll translate as a sire, especially in the mind of commercial breeders. I realize Scat Daddy's best sons haven't been at stud yet or long enough to have foals of running age, but it's actually surprising to me when you look at the list of his sons at stud how light the demand seems to be for the most of them. It's also a little ironic almost that El Kabeir whose damsire is Unbridled's Song, ended up in Ireland.

I think WinStar will stand him, I'd be very surprised if CHC let them sell his stud rights to someone else. It will be interesting to see how they manage his stallion career. I could picture them trying to set his stud fee at 100k, but otoh if WinStar/CHC are the ones standing him they won't have the pressure to recoup what they paid for him as a different entity would. They could choose an entirely different approach from Coolmore. They could limit his book and inflate the price, or they could set a lower price to generate demand and compete with stallions in that price bracket. They could cut deals to blue blooded mares... and so on.
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Diver52
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Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:30 pm

AP had very well balanced conformation and perfect mechanics, and as was just said, he seems to be an exemplar of a prepotent sire line. Justify is a huge talent but he seems to have had a series of nagging issues. (Of course AP missed the BCJ.) AP at $200,000 was always sort of a "wink wink, nudge nudge" figure, but I could see Justify legitimately filling up at half that if he wins at least one more G1.
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BaroqueAgain1
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Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:12 pm

IMHO, when it comes to breeding, sometimes the race record, no matter how stellar, doesn't carry the same weight as how well that sireline is doing in producing winners. As has been pointed out, the Unbridled/Empire Maker/PotN line has been very productive, and that may make 'Pharoah more attractive than Justify.
Scat Daddy already has sons like No Nay Never at stud with runners on the track. How are they doing? Are they showing that SD is a sire-of-sires? :?
Last edited by BaroqueAgain1 on Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Scat Daddy was standing for $100k at the time of his death, right? They'll get $200k easy for him I think.

Is this the first time a stud farm will stand two TC winners at the same time? (is this deal even concrete?)
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Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:41 pm

Flanders wrote:
bare it all wrote:So, Pharaoh WAS the only living Triple Crown winner.... is his value now as a stud diminished and devalued because we have Justify? Plus, you can easily breed to AP's sire who is beyond proven himself. I think he was standing in the neighborhood of $75-85K past season, but someone might have better insight there.

What do you think the Coolmore boys will post Justify at? A Triple Crown winning son of the prolific but ill-fated Scat Daddy and out of a lovely female family. I see them easily tossing him out there at 200k and probably not cutting the deal they did for AP.
Pioneerof the Nile stood for $60,000 in 2015, $125,000 in 2016, $110,000 in 2017/2018.

Coolmore will have to go in the 150-200k range for Justify, otherwise they won't hit the break even point fast enough. That is if the $75 million sale price that is being thrown around is true.

The sale price for AP was never disclosed but it was substantially lower because the deal was made when he was still 2yos.
Someone commented on Paulick that AP is cryptorchid which is why he didn't command the big bucks. That was the first I heard such a thing.
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Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:27 pm

Ziggypop wrote:
The sale price for AP was never disclosed but it was substantially lower because the deal was made when he was still 2yos.
Someone commented on Paulick that AP is cryptorchid which is why he didn't command the big bucks. That was the first I heard such a thing.
Lots of stallions have been crytorchids, didn't effect most of them. Seattle Slew line has a lot of them, including AP Indy...
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Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:09 pm

Somnambulist wrote:Scat Daddy was standing for $100k at the time of his death, right? They'll get $200k easy for him I think.

Is this the first time a stud farm will stand two TC winners at the same time? (is this deal even concrete?)
No, Spendthrift stood Seattle Slew and Affirmed.

Calumet stood Whirlaway and Citation, though not at the same time, I don't believe. I think by the time Citation arrived on the scene, Whirlaway had been sent to France.
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Private Thoughts wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Scat Daddy was standing for $100k at the time of his death, right? They'll get $200k easy for him I think.

Is this the first time a stud farm will stand two TC winners at the same time? (is this deal even concrete?)
No, Spendthrift stood Seattle Slew and Affirmed.

Calumet stood Whirlaway and Citation, though not at the same time, I don't believe. I think by the time Citation arrived on the scene, Whirlaway had been sent to France.
Yes, Whirlaway was moved to France in 1951, a year before Citation went to stud.

Claiborne stood Omaha alongside his sire Gallant Fox (and his grandsire Sir Gallahad) from 1938-1942 after which Omaha was sent to New York and then to Nebraska.
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Treve
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:48 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IMHO, when it comes to breeding, sometimes the race record, no matter how stellar, doesn't carry the same weight as how well that sireline is doing in producing winners. As has been pointed out, the Unbridled/Empire Maker/PotN line has been very productive, and that may make 'Pharoah more attractive than Justify.
Scat Daddy already has sons like No Nay Never at stud with runners on the track. How are they doing? Are they showing that SD is a sire-of-sires? :?
No Nay Never is doing well but he's the only son of Scat Daddy I'd say is doing well. He has one son doing regionally ok in Florida I think on the sales front and his lone starter to date is a winner at first outing. The other sons he has who entered stud in 2015 and therefore should have offspring of racing age stand for like 3000$... one of them I don't think even got any mares in his first year at stud.
Somnambulist wrote:Scat Daddy was standing for $100k at the time of his death, right? They'll get $200k easy for him I think.
But Justify is not Scat Daddy and Scat Daddy does not come from a multigenerational line of potent sires. Not only is Empire Maker and his sons emerging as a massive sires of sires line, but it actually goes well back to Unbridled and Fappiano to Mr. Prospector. There isn't a single weak link in that line, even if Empire didn't at first perform the way Juddmonte wanted, he has done well enough to be bought back to the U.S. Grand Daddy, the full to Scat Daddy is still standing in South America with apparently no interest to bring him back, despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis. Johannesburg is in Japan and getting up there in the years so he's not gonna be brought back and to my knowledge Scat Daddy's dam wasn't recently sent to him again. I think Scat Daddy has the potential to be a sire of sires but it isn't established yet. It's clear Coolmore believes in the potential but they aren't pushing for more than what the market will tolerate. I don't think the market will tolerate 200k for Justify, whether Coolmore or someone else stands him. (And as a matter of fact, I'm also kinda skeptical that Coolmore will even get him)

Coolmore isn't even asking for more than 35 000€ for Caravaggio (and No Nay Never stands at 25 000€). If Coolmore gets Justify for sure they don't get 200k for him. The price difference betwen Caravaggio and No Nay Never I suspect has to do with their damsides (and their race records of course) but they both have decent and more than decent 1st, 2nd and 3rd BM sires on their damside that are also proven as sires of sires. Caravaggio has Holy Bull and Relaunch, No Nay Never has Elusive Quality.

Ghostzapper is shaping up to be quite the BM sire but so far none of his sons at stud have done much of anything so even if you're trying to look for 'sire of sires' influence on his distaff side there isn't there in the immediate. Another thing is Justify is inbred 3 times to Mr Prospector at a time where there are so many horses with Mr Prospector in their first 4 generation pedigree it's now become a selling point for stallions who are free of Mr P in their first 4 generations.
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Flanders
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:19 am

Somnambulist wrote:(is this deal even concrete?)
Nothing has been announced either way. But the rumors have been circling, only time will tell if its true or not. On one hand I find it hard to believe WinStar would sell a TC winner but they would still syndicate him. So maybe they are only selling controlling interest to Coolmore?
Treve wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IMHO, when it comes to breeding, sometimes the race record, no matter how stellar, doesn't carry the same weight as how well that sireline is doing in producing winners. As has been pointed out, the Unbridled/Empire Maker/PotN line has been very productive, and that may make 'Pharoah more attractive than Justify.
Scat Daddy already has sons like No Nay Never at stud with runners on the track. How are they doing? Are they showing that SD is a sire-of-sires? :?
No Nay Never is doing well but he's the only son of Scat Daddy I'd say is doing well. He has one son doing regionally ok in Florida I think on the sales front and his lone starter to date is a winner at first outing. The other sons he has who entered stud in 2015 and therefore should have offspring of racing age stand for like 3000$... one of them I don't think even got any mares in his first year at stud.

But Justify is not Scat Daddy and Scat Daddy does not come from a multigenerational line of potent sires. Not only is Empire Maker and his sons emerging as a massive sires of sires line, but it actually goes well back to Unbridled and Fappiano to Mr. Prospector. There isn't a single weak link in that line, even if Empire didn't at first perform the way Juddmonte wanted, he has done well enough to be bought back to the U.S. Grand Daddy, the full to Scat Daddy is still standing in South America with apparently no interest to bring him back, despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis. Johannesburg is in Japan and getting up there in the years so he's not gonna be brought back and to my knowledge Scat Daddy's dam wasn't recently sent to him again. I think Scat Daddy has the potential to be a sire of sires but it isn't established yet. It's clear Coolmore believes in the potential but they aren't pushing for more than what the market will tolerate. I don't think the market will tolerate 200k for Justify, whether Coolmore or someone else stands him. (And as a matter of fact, I'm also kinda skeptical that Coolmore will even get him)

Coolmore isn't even asking for more than 35 000€ for Caravaggio (and No Nay Never stands at 25 000€). If Coolmore gets Justify for sure they don't get 200k for him. The price difference betwen Caravaggio and No Nay Never I suspect has to do with their damsides (and their race records of course) but they both have decent and more than decent 1st, 2nd and 3rd BM sires on their damside that are also proven as sires of sires. Caravaggio has Holy Bull and Relaunch, No Nay Never has Elusive Quality.

Ghostzapper is shaping up to be quite the BM sire but so far none of his sons at stud have done much of anything so even if you're trying to look for 'sire of sires' influence on his distaff side there isn't there in the immediate. Another thing is Justify is inbred 3 times to Mr Prospector at a time where there are so many horses with Mr Prospector in their first 4 generation pedigree it's now become a selling point for stallions who are free of Mr P in their first 4 generations.
No Nay Never and Caravaggio are both turf sprinters. They never command the stud fees of a classic distance horse when they first go to stud.

The thing with the Scat Daddy's that have gone to stud, none were G1SW on the dirt. All of them that have foals of racing age, their first foals of racing age are 2. Bloodhorse has Finale as entering stud in 2014 but he raced that spring and didn't cover any mares. His first foals are 2yos too. You can't judge a stallion as a sire of sires who only has sons at stud with 2yos when its June.

I think they can get 150-200k easily. He is an undefeated Triple Crown winner, his sire was on fire and died young. There is only one crop of 2yos left from Scat Daddy, if his sons show they can sire good runners, he is worth that risk.
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Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.
I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.
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Flanders
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:45 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.
I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.
The only one that I really remember seeing is the one where he is a yearling. https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/ne ... ib-justify
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:57 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.
I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.
I think that WinStar is the definition of the phrase "anything is for sale for the right price"
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Miss Woodford
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:02 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.
I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.
Best I could find:
Image
Image

It's hard to find a really good photo of his legs because they're always bandaged. :?
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