Accelerate vs Justify HOTY

Who gets your vote?

Justify
17
27%
Accelerate
46
73%
 
Total votes: 63
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Kurenai
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:04 pm

C'mon guys, you know very well someone had to do it :lol:

Bonus points when you explain why ;)
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Big Ten
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:09 pm

Accelerate and only because it encourages owners to race their horses all season. Not stop in June thinking they have it in the bag.

Justify wouldn't care what a HotY award is. It's like Rachel and Zenyatta, they DGAF. Justify won the most elusive American racing crown already.

Foal crop 2013 BCC THREEPEAT.
2016 - Arrogate
2017 - Gun Runner
2018 - Accelerate

None of them won a single TC race.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Tessablue
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:11 pm

Disappointed by the lopsided voting; we haven't had a good HOTY fight since 2010!

I think Accelerate winning would be a game changer in the sport- for the better.
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Flanders
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:14 pm

Justify will win it. They both won the same amount of races. One won the Triple Crown. I know its not going to be popular but that is what I feel is going to happen.
carole
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:18 pm

At first I thought Accelerate was the obvious choice but it's closer than what I thought:

Accelerate: 7: 6-1-0 just under $4 million in earnings I think?
1st San Pasqual (GII)-CA
1st Santa Anita Handicap (GI)-CA
2nd Oaklawn Handicap (GII)-IL
1st Gold Cup (GI)-CA
1st Pacific Classic (GI)-CA
1st Awesome Again (GI)-CA
1st Breeder's Cup Classic (GI)-KY
-5 Grade 1's
-Won all the 'big' California Grade 1's
-Won end of year championship race

Justify: 6: 6-0-0 $3,798,000
1st Maiden-CA
1st Allowance-CA
1st Santa Anita Derby (GI)-CA
1st Kentucky Derby (GI)-KY
1st Preakness Stakes (GI)-MD
1st Belmont Stakes (GI)-NY
-4 Grade 1's
-Won Triple Crown
-Undefeated
-Won in 4 different states

It's closer than I originally thought to be honest
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Mylute
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:20 pm

Why?

Well, first off, to me, the Horse of the Year is the horse that put together the best season for that year, consistently. Threw consistently good performances and remained solid. It is the Horse of the Year, not Horse of the First or Last SIx Months of the Year, or Six Months In Between. I also consider the competition they ran against. Sure, the competition Arrogate ran against in California wasn’t the best ever, but the field he just beat basically was. The competition Justify ran against wasn’t bad either (Bravazo and Promises Fulfilled just flattered him), and I think the 2018 Kentucky Derby had an awesome field, but Accelerate’s signature race was just better. He put away some of the best turf horses, the best dual surface horses, and some of the best dirt horses that hand’t already been retired, ahem.

Justify is “undefeated”, sure, but Accelerate’s lone loss this year was to City of Light, who just won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

That’s why I would vote Accelerate for Horse of the Year.

Also, because I’m petty sometimes thanks to being human, I don’t want to see those connections, or their “sportsmanship”/lack thereof, rewarded.

Of course people have different definitions for Horse of the Year, which is why some people voted Arrogate in 2016 (their definition being “the single best performace of the year”).
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
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Tessablue
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:24 pm

I would have voted for Arrogate because he very definitively won the championship event that year. Accelerate won the event in addition to putting together a solid resume.

The best horse Justify beat was probably Audible, but that doesn't necessarily help him for... obvious reasons.

Do I want Justify to lose because I think his career exemplifies the most cynical aspects of the sport? Absolutely! But I think there's a case to be made even without that bias.

Or how about we split the difference and just give it to my man Gunnevera.
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Mylute
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:30 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:24 pm
I would have voted for Arrogate because he very definitively won the championship event that year. Accelerate won the event in addition to putting together a solid resume.

The best horse Justify beat was probably Audible, but that doesn't necessarily help him for... obvious reasons.

Do I want Justify to lose because I think his career exemplifies the most cynical aspects of the sport? Absolutely! But I think there's a case to be made even without that bias.

Or how about we split the difference and just give it to my man Gunnevera.
Or we can just give it to Monomoy Girl.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
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Treve
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:37 pm

They have the same amount of wins, but if we look at the objective measures Accelerate has more graded stakes wins overall, more G1s, and to Crown it all off he beat more G1 winners in open company at the end of year championships.

Subjectively, the horses he beat weren’t flukey, Thunder Snow came pretty close to being the first horse to win the DWC and the Classic in the same year.

I also don’t think a 3yo should, in general (there are cases where exceptions would be understandable) win HOTY without facing older horses, unless he sweeps every single G1 available to 3yos in the router division from the start of the year to the end and all the older males are terrible and inconsistent. But since Justify wasn’t around he missed notables such as the Haskell, the Travers and the PA Derby and Accelerate certainly has been consistent even if you want to argue he didn’t beat much. Because I’d argue Justify also didn’t beat much aside maybe from Bravazo and Mendelssohn But Mendy’s Derby doesn’t really count considering RM eased him. You could make a case for promises fulfilled but I’m not sure that counts either considering he turned out to be more of a sprinter.

And yes I feel even Monomoy Girl could be considered over Justify for HOTY, but I think to break the tie while she faced olders (so one more category than Justify did) she stayed with females so cannot really claim that she beat the best horses in the open division the way Accelerate can.
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stark
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:41 pm

Flanders wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:14 pm
Justify will win it. They both won the same amount of races. One won the Triple Crown. I know its not going to be popular but that is what I feel is going to happen.
100%
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
lurkey mclurker
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:45 pm

What Stark & Flanders said. 8-)
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Mylute
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:48 pm

How long until WinStar launches a social media campaign for Justify as HOTY the way Spendthrift did for Bolt d'Oro being Juvenile Champ over Good Magic?
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
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Treve
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:50 pm

The question isn’t “who do you think will win”, it’s “who would you vote for” c’mon guys :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Kurenai
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:53 pm

Treve wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:50 pm
The question isn’t “who do you think will win”, it’s “who would you vote for” c’mon guys :lol:
You took the words right out of my mouth! :lol:
stark
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:59 pm

Treve wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:50 pm
The question isn’t “who do you think will win”, it’s “who would you vote for” c’mon guys :lol:

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stark wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:41 pm
Flanders wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:14 pm
Justify will win it. They both won the same amount of races. One won the Triple Crown. I know its not going to be popular but that is what I feel is going to happen .
100%
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Kurenai
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:05 pm

Don't care that Justify is undefeated, because he only raced 6 times. So that doesn't count. He's also not the only undefeated TC winner, if he is, then Slew is too. He has 4 G1s to his resume, but all in restricted company. If those 3 G1s wouldn't be called the Triple Crown, there wouldn't even be a discussion. That's my reasoning anyway.
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Big Ten
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:12 pm

To Justify's credit, Mendelssohn ran a nice race. Accelerate didn't exactly blow this field away. The same Mendy that Justify humiliated at Churchill six months prior.

I'm usually objective each year and most Eclipse voters get it right better than the Academy Awards for Best Picture. Some of the Oscar winners for BP have been atrocious as years go by. Not so with HotY.

1997 - Favorite Trick vs Skip Away
I was actually fine with Fav Trick because Skip Away had a very inconsistent 4YO season losing 7 out of 11 starts. God rest their souls.

2004 - Ghostzapper vs Smarty Jones
I sided with GZ since his Iselin. He won HotY off only four starts. Set the stakes and track record at Lone Star. Still the best BCC performance ever. Case closed.

2009 - Rachel Alexandra vs Zenyatta
I was Rachel Rabid before a Zenyatta Zealot. This was a waste of time debating because I felt Rachel deserved it and she won the award anyway.

2010 - Zenyatta vs Blame
I didn't mind had Blame won it because he beat better opponents but I guess his JCGC 4-length loss cost him the NY vote. Zenyatta was the show of that year. Totally fine with the selection.

2016 - California Chrome vs Arrogate
Arrogate might proven to be the more talented racehorse but Chrome had the better year.

2018 - Accelerate vs Justify
Justify winning the Triple Crown was the Moment of the Year but Accelerate will be Horse of the Year.

I'm totally fine with Accelerate winning HotY. Like Rachel in '09 and Chrome in' 16, he ran for most of the year and he deserves it.

The unprecedented denial of a Triple Crown winner being named HotY will happen this year.

As fans, we accepted the fact before Justify won the Belmont that he would be too valuable to race ever again. That he likely would retire after that.

The owners need to understand that they didn't race Justify after Belmont unlike American Pharoah who ran three times including an exclamation mark in the BCC.

The award is based for a year. Not the first six months or winning a Triple Crown. Count Fleet had his excuse. Justify can have his excuse too but Accelerate still has a better 2018 resumé.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Mylute
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:14 pm

Someone said in a Bloodhorse comment that Seattle Slew was an undefeated TC winner, just not overall.

Why?

Because he raced after the Belmont.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
luvsgeldings
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:59 pm

I would love to see Accelerate win horse of the year - the award says it.... horse of the YEAR - not the horse of 4 months.

and I would like to see owners rewarded for keeping their RACE horse RACING past the age of 3 - plus, that whole Belmont/Audible/questionable jock rides situation still leaves a bad taste in my mouth - don't think those owners should be rewarded with a HOTY for several reasons - sorry for Justify - not his fault who owns him - but he will always have TC winner after his name.

I would rather see the owners of Accelerate given the HOTY award - more than once, they have shown they like to keep their horses in training and racing. I think they are good for the sport and I would like to see them rewarded for it.
the olline rebel
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 8:00 pm

Justify was very good, but his schedule was restricted in time duration, and also in class - basically he beat 3yos.

Accelerate is too good in his more open division and schedule duration to be denied.

But he will be denied, because "TC Winners" always win it.
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