Accelerate vs Justify HOTY

Who gets your vote?

Justify
17
27%
Accelerate
46
73%
 
Total votes: 63
Tessablue
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:11 am

Curtis wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:38 am
Miss Woodford wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:19 am
Call me a tinfoil hatter, but Justify's win will always be a little tainted for me with the Audible situation and it bugs me that it fell out of people's minds so quickly. Maybe not enough to put an asterisk by his name in the list of Triple Crown winners, but combined with his drastically condensed career I just can't give him Horse Racing Legend status the way other people want so badly to. I get that we've been starved of TC winners but IMO just winning the three races (the last in a shady fashion) shouldn't automatically make him Horse of The Year.
Okay, I’ll bite. Do you honestly think Audible was held out of the Belmont for nefarious reasons and just to make it look good, Winstar also took him out of training so he would miss the Haskell, Travers, PA Derby and BC? And now that Winstar, et al has perfected this sting are they going to do it again next year or are they going to lay low for awhile to really make it convincing? Will Baffert or Pletcher touch their nose or will the horse wiggle its’ ears?
Well, to put it another way- if that was the plan, it clearly worked! Audible returning and immediately sweeping the table would have looked pretty terrible, by their own admission there was nothing actually wrong with him, and I think the Justify retirement saga proved that Winstar thinks racing fans are idiots. And honestly, on its own giving the horse an extended break was probably for the best. I'm just not willing to give them the benefit of the doubt at all, now or in the future, and while I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist, it's not like anybody believed that Audible would actually run in the race. Or that Justify was actually injured.

We'll see what he does next year and if that ignites more talk, although I wouldn't be surprised if he's retired after winning the Pegasus.
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ElPrado2
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:25 am

Should this thread be moved to Trivia And Games? We're getting pretty close. I know I'm having a blast. For someone who doesn't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, you're doing a great imitation.
Maybe I can get a book deal out of this. I have all the necessary ingredients. There is the evil breeding farm ownership group, buying colts and retiring them before their time. The colt who emerged cleanly from the quicksand needing his hooves polished with a pumice stone, and maybe a light spray around the fetlocks. The dastardly trainer hiding in Santa Anita with untold numbers of other colts that have to be better. The innocent stallion already at a breeding farm that will run and rescue tbreds for years yet. The innocent ownership group conned into selling clean boy before his time. The much cuter grey haired trainer in New York who hasn't been able to win there since they expanded testing substance parameters. I'm sure I can come up with a plot.
Last edited by ElPrado2 on Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Tessablue
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:01 pm

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/trip ... ys-to-lose
Quotes from Walden talking about how "it's different" when you've won two out of three races.

Plus this from before the Preakness:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... eir-course

And for what it's worth, one of the part-owners initially reported that Walden told him the horse had a gluteal strain. That injury completely vanished somewhere between the initial media report and Rood and Riddle.

There's an easy way to meet in the middle and say that the connections didn't want to run him, and so they jumped at the first available excuse. That's fine, and I think keeping him out for a while would also assuage any guilt or misgivings on the owner's end while setting the horse up for a successful 4yo campaign (should he be allowed to have it). But it's not difficult math: nobody thought the horse would run, the horse didn't run, and the owners did nothing to improve their own credibility with the shenanigans they pulled after the Belmont, to make no mention of what happened during it. Or how they pretended there was no Coolmore deal for months. I don't actually think Audible would have won the Belmont, even though I think he's immensely talented, but there has to be an expiration date on benefit of the doubt. Doubly so in a sport that is rapidly being consolidated by the ultra-rich.

In some respects, this HOTY represents a cynical microcosm of the current state of the sport. A Triple Crown winner owned by a faceless collection of corporations with an abbreviated career who was retired immediately after the TC so as to remain unbeaten, vs a 5yo stallion who ran all year after showing demonstrable improvement with age? It's the sort of thing one of us would have dreamed up as a thought experiment prior to 2015, and Justify's story is what many of us were afraid would happen with American Pharoah (or any TC winner). This is the sport's opportunity to discourage it- whether "it" to you encompasses Audible or just the early retirement- from happening again. I hope the voters realize that.
MR-W
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:02 pm

Apollo wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:13 am
I would vote for Justify and if he doesn't receive it the award should be replaced by a jack o lantern this year.

Give me a break. Nobody knows Accelerate exists. I returned home from a lengthy trip and didn't watch the Breeders Cup races until today (Sunday). I didn't know any of the winners beforehand and didn't make any special attempt to avoid the results because I knew I wouldn't have to. With this type of Classic field nobody was desperate to start blabbing the outcome.

The Triple Crown is paramount and should be rewarded in unanimous fashion, although obviously many conventional wisdom dolts will prefer Accelerate.

In 1978 I was a huge Seattle Slew fan and even though he proved superior to Affirmed in their two fall meetings I was likewise adamant that it had to be Affirmed. That would have been my position even if Slew had held on against Exceller and been healthy enough to win several major stakes earlier in the year.
So, anyone that disagrees with you is a dolt? :lol: After reading this post I'm surprised you show interest to be on this forum. If the Breeders' Cup cannot peak your interest then why even be a fan at all? Just wondering...
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Charlie
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Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:02 am

I definitely agree with Tessablue about the whole situation.

I personally think Accerlate SHOULD win, but I have a sneaky suspicion Justify will win because most voters don't care about that, they just care about flashy things and fancy titles, and TC WInner already sounds fancy and flashy.
peeptoad
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Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:47 am

If I voted I'd vote Accelerate, but I think Justify is a shoe-in for the award, honestly. I can't see the majority of voters going elsewhere in a TC year...
tcw
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Sat Nov 10, 2018 6:56 pm

Imo, HOY is not even a contest this year, and shouldn't be. While I'm glad for Sadler winning the BCC, Accelerate only ran one more race than Justify year to date, and his BSF for the BCC was the 2nd slowest in the history of the race - only BCC Drosselmeyer's figure was lower. What's more, this occurred when other races on the card were run in fast times, such as the Dirt Mile which was run in 1:33 and change. On a side note, the BCC winner also closed in a very tepid 27 seconds. On the other hand, what Justify did was historic in having won the TC in just a little over 100 days of racing. And going back to War Admiral in 1937, every TC winner to date has also been HOY, and rightly so given how difficult it is to achieve. I don't see this year being any different.
luvsgeldings
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Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:25 pm

with all due respect, tcw... I hear what you are saying - and you make some great points for sure - however, I am not sure Justify's wins in the TC had fast times either - I could be wrong (and my husband would say, I usually am!) - but I just don't recall Justify having fast closing splits or fast final times in his TC races.

of course, what Justify did in such a short window of time, deserves much respect and admiration. and I am fairly certain he will be given the award.

I was wondering though, how many dirt horses here in the US have won 4 races at the classic 1 1/4 mile distance in one year? accelerate did that this year. but I am trying to think what other horses have done the same in one year. there could be more than I think who have done it, but I just can't name any right now. curious if anyone else would know(?)
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ElPrado2
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Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:47 pm

One more point... supposedly Justify was slow. Which race? Mud in the Derby? He finished first. The River Pimlico in the Preakness? He needed an outboard motor to go any faster. He finished first. Oh, he must only win in mud.... he won the Belmont, too. Against those colts he ran as fast as he had to. He didn't need to run any faster.

The whole controversy is sour grapes because the owners took the money waved in front of their noses. You want to take it out on someone, start screaming at Coolmore. Justify did what he was asked to do. Beat every horse that ran against him. Never raced at 2. Then won the Triple Crown. Pooh, can't stand the trainer... pooh, owned by Chinese, urp... glub, Winstar went for the cash... so what else is new. They always do. Were you surprised? No, you knew that was coming.
So, how to get back at the connections? Take it out on the horse.
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ElPrado2
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Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:24 pm

Closing times? He was leading at least most of each race. Who was he closing against? A duck in the infield?
Izvestia
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Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:43 pm

Side note - I read this article https://www.paulickreport.com/news/bree ... -negative/
about the drug testing this year... and I got to wondering, did some trainers not do as well this year because of it?
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ElPrado2
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Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:55 pm

Pletcher win a race at GP West today.
Tessablue
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Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:05 am

Justify's Derby was very good, and by far his best TC race. In the Preakness he was second-best to Good Magic (who was on the worst part of the track, facing outside pressure while on the lead for the first time, only beaten a length), and he would have been beaten by... probably every Preakness winner of the past 20 years. He was injured for it, and I'm not sure why people ignore that fact and instead try to argue that the race was actually good. It really wasn't.
Izvestia wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:43 pm
Side note - I read this article https://www.paulickreport.com/news/bree ... -negative/
about the drug testing this year... and I got to wondering, did some trainers not do as well this year because of it?
Potentially, yeah. I believe the program was expanded last year as well. Still much too early to make any conclusions though.
katmandu
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Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:32 am

ElPrado2 wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:47 pm
So, how to get back at the connections? Take it out on the horse.
Justify doesn't care.
barbaro111
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Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:19 am

ElPrado2 wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:47 pm
One more point... supposedly Justify was slow. Which race? Mud in the Derby? He finished first. The River Pimlico in the Preakness? He needed an outboard motor to go any faster. He finished first. Oh, he must only win in mud.... he won the Belmont, too. Against those colts he ran as fast as he had to. He didn't need to run any faster.

The whole controversy is sour grapes because the owners took the money waved in front of their noses. You want to take it out on someone, start screaming at Coolmore. Justify did what he was asked to do. Beat every horse that ran against him. Never raced at 2. Then won the Triple Crown. Pooh, can't stand the trainer... pooh, owned by Chinese, urp... glub, Winstar went for the cash... so what else is new. They always do. Were you surprised? No, you knew that was coming.
So, how to get back at the connections? Take it out on the horse.

You speak for me as well-totally agree
luvsgeldings
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Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:03 pm

just so my point wasn't lost.... the only reason I mentioned the times, etc. for Justify in the TC, was in response to the mention of Accelerate's time in the BC classic. frankly, I don't think the times of either horse should be held against either one of them. that was my intention by my comments, but I guess I didn't make that clear. so just wanted to clarify where I was coming from in my comments about Justify in the TC.
stark
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Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:15 pm

Let's look into our crystal balls into the future for a point of reference.

During the next 25 years, approximately how many horses will have comparable accomplishments to Accelerate?
My guess approximately 22.

During the next 25 years, approximately how many horses will have comparable accomplishments to Justify?
My guess, approximately zero.

Bonus angle, if Justify was the first TripleCrown winner in the past 37 years, the vote just might be unanimous!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
sweettalk
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Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:07 pm

stark wrote:
Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:15 pm
Let's look into our crystal balls into the future for a point of reference.

During the next 25 years, approximately how many horses will have comparable accomplishments to Accelerate?
My guess approximately 22.

During the next 25 years, approximately how many horses will have comparable accomplishments to Justify?
My guess, approximately zero.

Bonus angle, if Justify was the first TripleCrown winner in the past 37 years, the vote just might be unanimous!
you predict 22 horses will go 6 for 7 at a G1 level and end the year with 4 consecutive g1 victories including the bcc? while the horse they lost to also goes on to win a bc race? bold.

also, i don't know why what may or may not happen in two decades' time has any impact on anything - we're awarding horses based on what they accomplished this year relative to each other. and a 4 mointh stint that included a TC everyone's complaining about anyway isn't more interesting than year round top level racing. spite is the only reason i'd vote for justify - were i an official voter (you'er right, for you, it's good i'm not) i would absolutely vote accelerate.
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Curtis
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Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:44 am

They’re both really nice horses who both accomplished a lot in ways unique to themselves. Justify impressed me more so he gets my vote.
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Big Ten
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Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:24 am

Elliott Walden is echoing alot of what I said already. And it's true.

Look at Secretariat who lost two of three against elders on dirt. Didn't even run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Seattle Slew didn't have a second half of 1977. Lost badly to JO Tobin after that boneheaded, greedy decision by his owners.

Affirmed lost multiple times at the end of 1978 including finishing behind Slew twice.

Charismatic and California Chrome didn't even win the Triple Crown. Their last dirt win was in May of their respective 3YO seasons. Still were named HotY.

This HotY topic is just something to talk about until January. For me, the voters will NOT deny HotY to a Triple Crown winner. American Pharoah-Arrogate-Justify trilogy and only AP won HotY?

If the voters did deny Justify for HotY, it's probably a lesson to the owners. If I was put in the same position, I wouldn't race him if $80M was thrown at my face. The horse could break down and I would look foolish with a dead horse and $80M lost. Owners don't owe us fans anything.

Justify will be the 2018 HotY. If Accelerate wins it, I wouldn't trip. He's also deserving.

It would just look odd that a horse who went from zero to TC hero in 112 days and broke the Apollo curse will be denied HotY when he did nothing wrong, didn't lose, and did everything that was asked of him.

The Triple Crown means more to me now than the price gouging Breeders' Cup. The only races I watch annually for horse racing. It's like winning a championship for the horse racing community. Could never get sick watching them win it all.
Elliott Walden, the president and CEO of WinStar Farm, one of the co-owners of Justify, does not have a vote and is obviously partial, but he made a strong case for the Triple Crown winner being named Horse of the Year.

“Not every year do you get a Triple Crown winner-there have been 13 in 150 years, while there have been 35 Breeders’ Cup Classic winners,” Walden said. “Justify broke the ‘Apollo Curse’ and did things the experts said could not be done. He was undefeated. He won the Derby after battling through early fractions of :22 1/5 and :45 3/5. He did win four Grade I’s out of six starts. It’s not like he just won one race. Then you have to consider the horses he’s being compared to, Seattle Slew, Affirmed. That puts him in a very elite category. Accelerate had a great year. It’s unfortunate he came along the same year as Justify. It’s just that Justify did something very special.”
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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