2012 Derby/TC Trail -- News and updates

[Epiphany]

I don't see Bodiemeister as the best horse "by far", based on what? A loose on the lead win over second tier horses? I'm not saying he isn't a good horse, but he is not far better than several horses in here, including the one who beat him, he's simply not by far better than Gemologist, Union Rags, Creative Cause or Union Rags and Hansen, especially off a loose on the lead Beyer at Oaklawn Park, but I hope a lot of people continue to think he is, I hope for a good price on Union Rags and Creative Cause.

I saw you posted and tried to get down a bet down that it was negative, although the best I could get was even.

Aside from stating the fact that he is fastest so far, and that he has displayed the most talent, he specifically has three triple digit BSF in three of his four lifetime starts. The other nineteen horses have three triple digit BSF among them lifetime, including in all those fabulous experiences at age two.

Oh, and the loose on the 46 and change lead was on a track that Asmussen said wasn't playing to speed but Bode made it look like it did. Aside from winning by almost 10 over a bunch he made look mediocre (including his own two time stakes winning over that track stablemate.) Sorry you missed his two previous races to that at Santa Anita, but I think you can find them on youtube if you remove your head from your *** and take a good look?

BTW, it is BODEmeister to you. But you'll remember that by the same bat time next Sunday night.

[Matt Converse]

Could you explain how you do that? How do you play a trifecta with 6 or 7 horses? I don't understand betting at all. I don't understand wheels or any of that. If someone has a link to a site that explains it, I'd appreciate you sharing it.

If you do a 7-horse trifecta box, you win if any of the 7 seven end up 1st-2nd-3rd. So, you need three of them to run 1-2-3, the four 4 can run up the track, it doesn't matter.

To figure how much it will cost for a $1 trifecta, you multiply how many horses you have for each spot. It would seem to be 7x7x7 but it isn't because the horse that wins can't also finish 2nd, so that spot has only six other horses, for the same reason the third spot has only five. So the cost of a 7-horse trifecta box is 7x6x5=$210 for a $1 box.

It's a good way to bet in a race like the Derby with 20 entrants and a trifecta that is likely to pay between $500-$10,000. Obviously, you root for your longshots since those tri's will pay the best.

[Matt Converse]

I'll Have Another wins the "Wow" factor award for the day, and perhaps week. Creative Cause was glued and went for an impressive gallop. With Bodemeister's work and I'll Have Another wowing the crowd with just his look, it looks like the Californians have arrived.

I heard one awed onlooker whispered to a friend, "Union who?"

[Secretariat Forever]

That video was great! Really gave you a good look at the horses and love how they were making comments and what they think.

Daddy Nose Best, looked strong as he's been. On Fire Baby, looked REAL good, man she is a powerful looking girl with a beautiful stride, looks like she's really coming along now! There are some nice fillies this year, but if she wants the 1 1/8, it's going to take an effort to beat her. She's been training here all along, and has run on this track and loves it. Bode, holy crap now that was a STRONG work..and gallop out! Who says he can't close into a horse as well? He gobbled her up..like the guy said in the background..he's a freight train! lol He might even move up on the mud..scary! I agree, Optimizer looks like he loves the mud better than a dry track. Creative Cause is one handsome effin horse. He looked fabulous and apparently with his ears pricked at every point of the gallop.

I can watch On Fire Baby and Creative Cause gallop all day. Love those greys! And both are beautiful movers.

He could hear his feet rattle for sure, but this is a Bob Baffert Cali runner. The loose surface the day before, if he is less used to that, would be worse and just as risky.

I agree, if he is sound, and draws/breaks half way decent, he wins. He is just faster and more talented than the rest. By far. I get the impression Bob is trying to keep his own hopes and expectations in check because this is as good a chance as he has known he had going in since 2001.

ps why isn't anyone noting that Bode is sitting off the filly in a stalking spot just fine?

Hey I did!!

[Secretariat Forever]

I'll Have Another wins the "Wow" factor award for the day, and perhaps week. Creative Cause was glued and went for an impressive gallop. With Bodemeister's work and I'll Have Another wowing the crowd with just his look, it looks like the Californians have arrived.

I heard one awed onlooker whispered to a friend, "Union who?"

I think they all deserve a "wow" factor!

[Secretariat Forever]

Kentucky Derby news minute
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzNgtq5qF48


TVG Profile - I'll Have Another
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvu7dFE-ibo

and a bunch of others are linked on the side.

[Secretariat Forever]

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...ist-el-padrino

“Basically that was a mirror image of Gemologist’s work prior to the allowance win here,” Pletcher said, referring to one-mile race at Gulfstream Park on March 16 he won by seven lengths. “He hadn’t run since November and he ran very well that day.”

Shortly after Gemologist finshed, El Padrino worked outside of Windsurfer, a maiden winner who was sixth in the Louisiana Derby. The pair went off slowly and picked it up only slightly, getting their last three-eighths in 39.79 seconds. Humberto Zamora was aboard El Padrino.

“El Padrino’s [work] was slower than we wanted but based on this type of track you’d rather go a little on the cautious side than way too fast,” Pletcher said.

[LarrytheK]

.

Mike Battaglia...M/L ODDS.....Guess

Bodemeister.................4-1.... 9/2 FAVORITE /2nd Fav
Union Rags...................4-1..... 9/2 FAVORITE/ 2nd Fav


Gemologist....................6
Creative Cause..............6
Dullahan.......................8
Hansen.......................10
Ill Have another............10
Alpha..........................12
Take Charge Indy..........18
El Padrino.....................18
Daddy Nose Best...........20
Went The Day Well.........20
Daddy Nose Best............20
Daddy Long Legs.............20
Mark Valeski...................25
Prospective....................30
Done Talking...................30
Liaison...........................30
Sabercat........................30
Rousing Sermon...............30
Trinniberg.......................50

.

[Huaka]

Jay Privman ‏ @DRFPrivman
Sabercat goes 4f in 48.02 on @DRFWelsch watch, continues on with strong gallop out. Daddy Nose Best up next for Asmussen. #kyderby

Mike Welsch ‏ @DRFWelsch
Sabercat 1/2 in :48.02 splits 12.39, :24.10 out 5f 1:01.04 up 6f 1:15.45 looked sharp nice gallop out Daddy Nose Best next

[Huaka]

Jay Privman ‏ @DRFPrivman
Daddy Nose Best goes off slowly, final 1/4 in 23.53 for 4f time of 49.23 on @DRFWelsch watch. Both Asmussens are training well. #kyderby

Churchill Downs PR ‏ @DerbyMedia
Daddy Nose Best (#KyDerby) breezed 4F in :49.40. Splits 13.20, 25.60, 37.40. Out 5F in 1:02.40 & 6F in 1:16.60.

Mike Welsch ‏ @DRFWelsch
Daddy Nose Best 4 furs.:49.23 splits :13.36 25.70 out 5 frur.1:02.45 up 6 fur.116.80. Finished strong, continues to make nice impression

[Ballerina]

Contenders That Have Worked Out

Bodemeister Churchill Downs Five Furlongs 59:60

El Padrino Palm Meadows Training Center Four Furlongs 53:34

Gemologist Palm Meadows Training Center Four Furlongs 50:39

My Adonis Monmouth Park Five Furlongs 1.01:60

Optimizer Churchill Downs Five Furlongs 1.00:40

View Workouts

[asti]

Saturday

[second_glance]

@DRFGrening: Kiaran McLaughlin said from NY that Alpha just walked today at Belmont. Both horse and trainer fly at 1 pm

[ElPrado1]

Some horses like to rear, they get a chain over the nose. Some like to throw their head around, they get one under the chin. Others need one under the lip, for maximum control.

[second_glance]

@DRFGrening:

(1) Though I am now in Lousville, Todd Pletcher reports from Florida that Gemologist and El Padrino both jogged at Palm Meadows and all is well.

(2) Also from south Florida, Pat Byrne reports that Take Charge Indy walked under tack for 30 mins and jogged once around the muddy track.

[second_glance]

@DRFPrivman: Daddy Long Legs scheduled to leave Ireland for Ky. on Tuesday. Photo attached of him training at Ballydoyle on Sunday.

This is DLL at Ballydoyle on Sunday:

[Skywalker]

I'll Have Another wins the "Wow" factor award for the day, and perhaps week. Creative Cause was glued and went for an impressive gallop. With Bodemeister's work and I'll Have Another wowing the crowd with just his look, it looks like the Californians have arrived.

I heard one awed onlooker whispered to a friend, "Union who?"

The horses out West are better than the East Coast horses this year. I would not be shocked if Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and Bodemeister run 1-2-3. The Beyer figures have been way off out West. These horses have been running mid 100's all along.

[Ballerina]

Since BSF's seem to be factoring into a lot of the debate, here's some info on BSF for Kentucky Derby Winners. Sunday Silence at 101 and Unbridled & Monarchos at 116.

YearHorseBSF

1987Alysheba 104
1988Winning Colors 113
1989Sunday Silence 101
1990Unbridled 116
1991Strike the Gold 107
1992Lil E. Tee 107
1993Sea Hero 105
1994Go for Gin 112
1995Thunder Gulch 108
1996Grindstone 112
1997Silver Charm 115
1998Real Quiet 107
1999Charismatic 108
2000Fusaichi Pegasus 108
2001Monarchos 116
2002War Emblem 114
2003Funny Cide 109
2004Smarty Jones 107
2005Giacomo 100
2006Barbaro 111
2007Street Sense 110
2008Big Brown109
2009Mine That Bird105
2010 Super Saver 104
2011 Animal Kingdom 103

[second_glance]

@DerbyMedia: Mark Valeski (#KyDerby) 5F in 1:00.20. Splits 11.60, 23.40, 35.20, 47.60. Out 1:14.60.

@DerbyMedia: Liaison (#KyDerby) outside workmate 5F 1:00.80 from 4 1/2 pole. Start, finish even. 24.80, 37.20, 48.80. Out 1:13.20 & 1:26.60.

FWIW, comment from Jude Feld, observing: "Liaison had a tough time getting by his workmate no matter how far they went." He also thought Mark Valeski looked "a tad stiff" warming up.

[Huaka]

Churchill Downs PR ‏ @DerbyMedia
Trinniberg just open galloped, no breeze. #KyDerby

Churchill Downs PR ‏ @DerbyMedia
Creative Cause (#KyDerby) breezes 4F in :47.80. Splits 12.60, 24.60, 36. Out in 1:01.20.

Jay Privman ‏ @DRFPrivman
Liaison just avg in company. Mark Valeski just OK, too. Creative Cause long warm up before avg 1/2. Nothing special from any.