2012 Derby/TC Trail -- News and updates

[MonmouthGuy]

The horses out West are better than the East Coast horses this year. I would not be shocked if Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and Bodemeister run 1-2-3. The Beyer figures have been way off out West. These horses have been running mid 100's all along.

Keep repeating yourself long enough and you might start believing it.

I would take Alpha, Gemologist, Union Rags and El Padrino in a head to head prop bet over either of the first two. Bodemeister may be something special, but I don't expect the other two to contend.

Last year we heard this was when AP Warrior, Point Determined, Brother Derek and Sinister Minister led the strongest West Coast group we have ever seen into the Derby. Not sure if any of them ever won another race.

[second_glance]

Welsch on the morning workers. Summary: not impressed.

(1) Creative Cause warmed up stiff visited gate worked 4f 47.43 splits :12.50 :24.22 final 1/4 :23.21 under urging not much out 5f 1:01.32

(2) Liaison 5 furs from 4 1/2 pole 1:00.83 splits :24.70 48.52 out 1:13.32 in co. urged to stay w/mate

(3) Mark Valeski 5f. 1:00.34 off fast/tired not much gallop out 1:14 and change

Edited to add: some observers liked CC's work, and some West Coasters now at CD who've seen him often in the mornings say he is not a good work horse.

[second_glance]

@DRFWelsch: Most favorable impression during post break training session was gallop by Prospective appears to have come out of Saturday work very well

[Skywalker]

Keep repeating yourself long enough and you might start believing it.

I would take Alpha, Gemologist, Union Rags and El Padrino in a head to head prop bet over either of the first two. Bodemeister may be something special, but I don't expect the other two to contend.

Last year we heard this was when AP Warrior, Point Determined, Brother Derek and Sinister Minister led the strongest West Coast group we have ever seen into the Derby. Not sure if any of them ever won another race.

The same Bodemeister that Creative Cause beat 1 race back rather handily.

[Kris]

Welsch on the morning workers. Summary: not impressed.

(1) Creative Cause warmed up stiff visited gate worked 4f 47.43 splits :12.50 :24.22 final 1/4 :23.21 under urging not much out 5f 1:01.32

(2) Liaison 5 furs from 4 1/2 pole 1:00.83 splits :24.70 48.52 out 1:13.32 in co. urged to stay w/mate

(3) Mark Valeski 5f. 1:00.34 off fast/tired not much gallop out 1:14 and change

Edited to add: some observers liked CC's work, and some West Coasters now at CD who've seen him often in the mornings say he is not a good work horse.

Yeah, I remember last fall that observers hated Creative Cause's morning work both in CA and at Churchill Downs prior to the Breeders Cup, but in the end it didn't seem to matter.

[Huaka]

This is an interesting set of articles that delve into each horse's psychological make up and how he believes they'll perform in the Derby.

http://kentuckyconfidential.com/2012...y-derby-field/

[RHIOT]

I saw you posted and tried to get down a bet down that it was negative, although the best I could get was even.

Aside from stating the fact that he is fastest so far, and that he has displayed the most talent, he specifically has three triple digit BSF in three of his four lifetime starts. The other nineteen horses have three triple digit BSF among them lifetime, including in all those fabulous experiences at age two.

Oh, and the loose on the 46 and change lead was on a track that Asmussen said wasn't playing to speed but Bode made it look like it did. Aside from winning by almost 10 over a bunch he made look mediocre (including his own two time stakes winning over that track stablemate.) Sorry you missed his two previous races to that at Santa Anita, but I think you can find them on youtube if you remove your head from your *** and take a good look?

BTW, it is BODEmeister to you. But you'll remember that by the same bat time next Sunday night.

I could have bet you would have a bitchy reply just as easily, seems only you can voice your opinions on here, and I'll call Bodewhatever anything I want, and I could care less what he does on Saturday, I'm not using him, he's not your stupid horse why so effing defensive all the time!

[second_glance]

Asmussen's entries did half-miles this morning at CD:

Daddy Nose Best breezed 4F in :49.40

Sabercat breezed the same in :48.40

[Blue Jeans]

Don't forget! Luck of the draw .... Wednesday, May 2nd ... 5PM-6PM on NBCSN (formerly Versus)

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horse...Top+Stories%29

[Epiphany]

I could have bet you would have a bitchy reply just as easily, seems only you can voice your opinions on here, and I'll call Bodewhatever anything I want, and I could care less what he does on Saturday, I'm not using him, he's not your stupid horse why so effing defensive all the time!

I think you meant to write, "could not care less..."
But your replies are priceless.

[EquineAnne]

I'll Have Another wins the "Wow" factor award for the day, and perhaps week. Creative Cause was glued and went for an impressive gallop. With Bodemeister's work and I'll Have Another wowing the crowd with just his look, it looks like the Californians have arrived.

I heard one awed onlooker whispered to a friend, "Union who?"

I agree. He's one fine looking hoss. Hope he runs as good as he looks.

[halo]

Interesting regarding Mark Valeski this morning, from Jones:

The runner-up in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) worked alone under retired jockey Larry Melancon, turning in splits of :11 3/5, :23 2/5, :35 1/5, :47 3/5 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:14 3/5.

“He worked fine, that’s a typical Mark Valeski work,” Larry Jones said. “I think he’s beat a minute one time in his life without having somebody (another horse working with him) to prompt him to do it.

That’s just kind of him. Larry (Melancon) said he just kind of got to looking around coming down the lane and it was either call on him and ask him hard or let him finish up the way he did. We know what kind of horse he is; we’re not really that concerned about it.”

[Skywalker]

Interesting regarding Mark Valeski this morning, from Jones:

The runner-up in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) worked alone under retired jockey Larry Melancon, turning in splits of :11 3/5, :23 2/5, :35 1/5, :47 3/5 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:14 3/5.

“He worked fine, that’s a typical Mark Valeski work,” Larry Jones said. “I think he’s beat a minute one time in his life without having somebody (another horse working with him) to prompt him to do it.

That’s just kind of him. Larry (Melancon) said he just kind of got to looking around coming down the lane and it was either call on him and ask him hard or let him finish up the way he did. We know what kind of horse he is; we’re not really that concerned about it.”

I have no idea why they are on the fence about running him. He is a solid horse that could win under perfect circumstances.

[Epiphany]

I have no idea why they are on the fence about running him. He is a solid horse that could win under perfect circumstances.

If they have any qualms, it is because they know he is not as his best right now or going the right way after being pushed along this winter, i.e. perfect circumstances.

[EquineAnne]

If you do a 7-horse trifecta box, you win if any of the 7 seven end up 1st-2nd-3rd. So, you need three of them to run 1-2-3, the four 4 can run up the track, it doesn't matter.

To figure how much it will cost for a $1 trifecta, you multiply how many horses you have for each spot. It would seem to be 7x7x7 but it isn't because the horse that wins can't also finish 2nd, so that spot has only six other horses, for the same reason the third spot has only five. So the cost of a 7-horse trifecta box is 7x6x5=$210 for a $1 box.

It's a good way to bet in a race like the Derby with 20 entrants and a trifecta that is likely to pay between $500-$10,000. Obviously, you root for your longshots since those tri's will pay the best.

Holy crap, that's mucho $$$. I'm assuming if I played a .20 cent Super that way it would be $42, yes? So, I would tell the teller, I want a 7 horse Tri box and give him the names of my 7 horses...that's it? Also, I could do it with an Exacta as well using any number of horses? I like this! I won a normal Superfecta (first time evah!) Saturday on the Calder Oaks race so I have some cash for the Derby. And a Vindy horse won it too...surprise, surprise!

One more thing, if you would be so kind. How do I wheel a bet? And how do I tell that bet to the teller? Thanks Matt.

[Whos the Cowboy]

If you do a 7-horse trifecta box, you win if any of the 7 seven end up 1st-2nd-3rd. So, you need three of them to run 1-2-3, the four 4 can run up the track, it doesn't matter.

To figure how much it will cost for a $1 trifecta, you multiply how many horses you have for each spot. It would seem to be 7x7x7 but it isn't because the horse that wins can't also finish 2nd, so that spot has only six other horses, for the same reason the third spot has only five. So the cost of a 7-horse trifecta box is 7x6x5=$210 for a $1 box.

It's a good way to bet in a race like the Derby with 20 entrants and a trifecta that is likely to pay between $500-$10,000. Obviously, you root for your longshots since those tri's will pay the best.

I still like the 6 horse exacta box for $30.
And if I'm not mistaken, the fifty cent trifecta will be offered.

[Epiphany]

Holy crap, that's mucho $$$. I'm assuming if I played a .20 cent Super that way it would be $42, yes? So, I would tell the teller, I want a 7 horse Tri box and give him the names of my 7 horses...that's it? Also, I could do it with an Exacta as well using any number of horses? I like this! I won a normal Superfecta (first time evah!) Saturday on the Calder Oaks race so I have some cash for the Derby. And a Vindy horse won it too...surprise, surprise!

One more thing, if you would be so kind. How do I wheel a bet? And how do I tell that bet to the teller? Thanks Matt.

Here is a brief definition of bets in racing.

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/horse-...g-glossary.htm

[Whos the Cowboy]

Holy crap, that's mucho $$$. I'm assuming if I played a .20 cent Super that way it would be $42, yes? So, I would tell the teller, I want a 7 horse Tri box and give him the names of my 7 horses...that's it? Also, I could do it with an Exacta as well using any number of horses? I like this! I won a normal Superfecta (first time evah!) Saturday on the Calder Oaks race so I have some cash for the Derby. And a Vindy horse won it too...surprise, surprise!

One more thing, if you would be so kind. How do I wheel a bet? And how do I tell that bet to the teller? Thanks Matt.

The minimum superfecta on Kentuck Derby day is $1. No dime supers

[MightyMitch]

Don't forget! Luck of the draw .... Wednesday, May 2nd ... 5PM-6PM on NBCSN (formerly Versus)

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horse...Top+Stories%29

Anyone know if the Derby draw will be live streamed anywhere? I'm on PST time, and would be just getting off work before I go to the barn to take care of my horses (flying to Lexington later that night/early Thursday) and I can't go home to watch on tv since my workplace is between the barn and my house.

[amfuller]

Hansen treating himself to a nice sand bath. He's really enjoying himself.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...n=triple-crown