Union Rags: Kentucky Derby

[tcw]

While defeating stronger fields? There wasn't one horse in the Ark. Derby field other than Bode that was anywhere near the top of any Derby lists, and rightly so. El Padrino, however, considered by many a top contender, finished fourth in the Fl. Derby while the one-win in seven or eight starts Cozzetti finished in that same position in the Ark. Derby. It could also be argued that Take Charge Indy was well respected and would likely appreciate added distance.

As for closing strong, Bode had the edge for the the final eighth (11.97 vs :12.33), however, Union Rags closed the final three-eighths much faster, in :36.30 vs :37.35.

[second_glance]

FWIW.

@HTRVGary -- union rags. Rt“@livewebpicks: @HRTVGary Question. If you were to choose a Derby horse to ride today, which one would it be?”

[Mom4Gloria]

I think Rags has an excellent chance, but it would seem he is rather trip dependent. He's been the victim of bad trips more than once. I look for him to make a big impact when the fields get smaller again.

Personally, I've been on the Gemologist bandstand since the beginning of the year, and I've seen nothing that would turn me off of him now. It's a good thing I don't bet, because I'd be mad about the consistently dropping odds on him. LOL!

[shooter_29]

FWIW.

@HTRVGary -- union rags. Rt“@livewebpicks: @HRTVGary Question. If you were to choose a Derby horse to ride today, which one would it be?”

@HRTVGary also places Union Rags at No.1 on "Derby Top Five". That's endorcement enough for me. Hard to argue against a three-time Derby winning jockey like Gary Stevens. Gotta go with the experience.

[EquineAnne]

"Was" is the key word. Others have improved a great deal, he hasn't. Hansen and Union Rags were the two best, but that's counterbalanced by the fact that they are the only two that haven't improved. You can see how the lack of improvement cost Hansen today, and I see a similar fate for both in the Derby. Neither are Top 5 horses as three-year-olds.

Well, (stamping my foot) I will reserve final judgement after I hear Jeff Seigel's top 10, later today. ;-p

I can't give up that easy. It looked like another Hansen routine exercise session.

[Whos the Cowboy]

I stand by Hansen, Rags and Creative Cause, even though I'm all in on Bode.
What a group of likable horses this year.

[EquineAnne]

@HRTVGary also places Union Rags at No.1 on "Derby Top Five". That's endorcement enough for me. Hard to argue against a three-time Derby winning jockey like Gary Stevens. Gotta go with the experience.

He's an awful handicapper. Love Gary, but how long have you been watching him and his picks? Seigel is much better.

[Whos the Cowboy]

I love Gary, but I take his picks with a grain of salt. He is brilliant when he is right, but is quick to see something in the prerace hype if he's not right. Gary is the king of hindsight.
Now Jerry Bailey, I can't take him at all. Then again, he had to be my least favorite jock of all time.

[janpal]

While defeating stronger fields? There wasn't one horse in the Ark. Derby field other than Bode that was anywhere near the top of any Derby lists, and rightly so. El Padrino, however, considered by many a top contender, finished fourth in the Fl. Derby while the one-win in seven or eight starts Cozzetti finished in that same position in the Ark. Derby. It could also be argued that Take Charge Indy was well respected and would likely appreciate added distance.

As for closing strong, Bode had the edge for the the final eighth (11.97 vs :12.33), however, Union Rags closed the final three-eighths much faster, in :36.30 vs :37.35.

That's an interesting point, tcw. I think if UR gets a decent post and trip he'll be coming like gang-busters those last 3 eighths! Matz is tightening the screws now and I don't think we've seen the best of him yet. ;-)

[shooter_29]

I don't think we've seen the best of him yet. ;-)

I agree.

[dustino140]

Well, (stamping my foot) I will reserve final judgement after I hear Jeff Seigel's top 10, later today. ;-p

Whoever is atop Siegel's list, I'm assuming will be your first toss?

[Secretariat Forever]

While defeating stronger fields? There wasn't one horse in the Ark. Derby field other than Bode that was anywhere near the top of any Derby lists, and rightly so. El Padrino, however, considered by many a top contender, finished fourth in the Fl. Derby while the one-win in seven or eight starts Cozzetti finished in that same position in the Ark. Derby. It could also be argued that Take Charge Indy was well respected and would likely appreciate added distance.

As for closing strong, Bode had the edge for the the final eighth (11.97 vs :12.33), however, Union Rags closed the final three-eighths much faster, in :36.30 vs :37.35.

Bodemeister just dominated Secret Circle. El Padrino may have been a top Derby contender (which if you notice he dropped off many people's lists because after the Fl Derby he either just ran flat or we overrated him, which either way doesn't "flatter" UR like you are trying to say), but that's because many think he'll appreciate the 1 1/4. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to figure out who's more than likely the more talented between El Padrino and Secret Circle. Either way, both El Padrino and UR couldn't get past a horse like Reveron, you can't really think he's anywhere near as good as Secret Circle can you? If you do, than your even more biased than I thought.

[Commentator]

Reveron could very well be better than Secret Circle... at 9f. Secret Circle is a nice horse, but he absolutely hits a brick wall at about a mile. His performance yesterday reinforced that.

The Arkansas Derby field was bad. Bode's performance was impressive for many reasons, the competition was not among them.

[janpal]

"Was" is the key word. Others have improved a great deal, he hasn't. Hansen and Union Rags were the two best, but that's counterbalanced by the fact that they are the only two that haven't improved. You can see how the lack of improvement cost Hansen today, and I see a similar fate for both in the Derby. Neither are Top 5 horses as three-year-olds.

Matt, if UR hadn't finished his last 3/8th's strong without the use of the whip and on a track that wasn't kind to closing on the leader, I might be inclined to agree with you. Matz is only interested in having him ready for the Derby and making sure his peak performance comes there, unlike many of these "improving" horses who needed to win to get in. That's where your logic seems flawed to me in regard to Union Rags's progress. Even his easy works prior to his two preps as compared to his faster overall most recent work suggest that Matz didn't have him ready to give his best.

[Secretariat Forever]

Matt, if UR hadn't finished his last 3/8th's strong without the use of the whip and on a track that wasn't kind to closing on the leader efforts. Matz is only interested in having him ready for the Derby and making sure his peak performance comes there, unlike many of these "improving" horses needed to win to get in. That's where your logic seems flawed to me in regard to Union Rags's progress.

You keep going back to the fact that UR is being trained to peak on Derby day, not in the preps. Do you really think all the other trainers are training their Derby contender(s) to peak before the Derby and Matz is the only one who isn't? Matz did not expect to lose the FL Derby, a peaking UR or not. He had him trained to win. Whether he is being trained to peak before, during, or after the Derby, the simple fact is he has not shown that improvement jump the others have since last year. Just peaking in the Derby, while many other top contenders also will be, is not going to get him into the winners circle, he still needs to make that improvement leap.

And, even horses who are being trained to peak in the Derby, can still win Derby preps without peaking too soon. Whether they go head to head like CC and I'll Have Another or dominate like Bode did yesterday. And I'm fairly certain Baffert knows a thing or two about winning the Derby and getting his horses there at their best.

[janpal]

No, I'm quite sure that every trainer wants to have his horse peak in the Derby and Baffert is one of the best in the business. I'm merely pointing out the obvious, a trainer that doesn't need the graded earnings has the luxury of bringing on his horse more slowly than one who does need those earnings to get in. This is no knock on Bode or Baffert ( or any other trainer ), he looks like a real good horse with a great chance in the Derby. But, it is a real mistake to not watch the training leading up to the Derby and their work over Churchill--how they are looking then shouldn't be minimized. And I certainly think this year the same holds true, with UR being one to particularly pay close attention to.

[Epiphany]

Reveron could very well be better than Secret Circle... at 9f. Secret Circle is a nice horse, but he absolutely hits a brick wall at about a mile. His performance yesterday reinforced that.

The Arkansas Derby field was bad. Bode's performance was impressive for many reasons, the competition was not among them.

He swerves out to go around the wall.

[Epiphany]

No, I'm quite sure that every trainer wants to have his horse peak in the Derby and Baffert is one of the best in the business. I'm merely pointing out the obvious, a trainer that doesn't need the graded earnings has the luxury of bringing on his horse more slowly than one who does need those earnings to get in. This is no knock on Bode or Baffert ( or any other trainer ), he looks like a real good horse with a great chance in the Derby. But, it is a real mistake to not watch the training leading up to the Derby and their work over Churchill--how they are looking then shouldn't be minimized. And I certainly think this year the same holds true, with UR being one to particularly pay close attention to.

Bob trains them in races, he gets paid while doing it. Baffert trains hard and fast. That's why his horses don't bounce like most do.

[Secretariat Forever]

No, I'm quite sure that every trainer wants to have his horse peak in the Derby and Baffert is one of the best in the business. I'm merely pointing out the obvious, a trainer that doesn't need the graded earnings has the luxury of bringing on his horse more slowly than one who does need those earnings to get in. This is no knock on Bode or Baffert ( or any other trainer ), he looks like a real good horse with a great chance in the Derby. But, it is a real mistake to not watch the training leading up to the Derby and their work over Churchill--how they are looking then shouldn't be minimized. And I certainly think this year the same holds true, with UR being one to particularly pay close attention to.

What? Of course you have to pay attention to how they are training there. Who ever said you don't? But that's not all that matters. UR has been training great all year, but on the track he still hasn't improved much, if at all, since last year. He trained great, but still lost the FL Derby to two other horses. Two horses who were probably training great as well. So even if UR is training really well at CD, which I'd fully expect him to because he's already shown he likes the track, that doesn't mean he's your winner. There are going to be other contenders training very well too, maybe better, than him, ones that have already proven themselves more this year.

[tcw]

Reveron could very well be better than Secret Circle... at 9f. Secret Circle is a nice horse, but he absolutely hits a brick wall at about a mile. His performance yesterday reinforced that.

The Arkansas Derby field was bad. Bode's performance was impressive for many reasons, the competition was not among them.

Completely agree. Bode's peformance was very impressive, but the competition in the Ark. Derby was nothing to write home about (and that's putting it VERY mildly) and Bode's connections knew it. The horse had to get earnings, and his best chance for doing so was running in here rather than staying at SA. I know all about the extra week, but the earnings situation was no doubt the overwhelming and overriding factor. As for Secret Circle, it was basically The Factor part II, and until reading this thread, one would have thought that it was obvious to everyone. But again, that was before reading this thread.