Union Rags: Kentucky Derby

[janpal]

Nobody said he was going to win, there are too many factors involved to predict that, but he's too talented in my opinion to just dismiss at this point when his best may very well be ahead of him. You don't like him, fine, or think he's improved. I and others do and that's what makes the world go 'round. ;-) I certainly could be wrong, we'll find out soon enough.

[Blue Jeans]

Union Rags is in Kentucky ....

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/th...s-in-kentucky/

[Secretariat Forever]

Nobody said he was going to win, there are too many factors involved to predict that, but he's too talented in my opinion to just dismiss at this point when his best may very well be ahead of him. You don't like him, fine, or think he's improved. I and others do and that's what makes the world go 'round. ;-) I certainly could be wrong, we'll find out soon enough.

I like the horse. But I'm not letting my biased opinion get in the way of the facts.

And as far as I have seen, not many people are dismissing him. So I don't know where you are getting this from.

[janpal]

Sec, I would have much preferred to have seen him win his last prep with a triple-digit beyer, but it wasn't in the cards - some us think the trip and track made that impossible, especially without being cranked. Maybe he won't make that leap in the Derby, but I think there is a decent possibilty he will with a good trip. I really do look forward, to address one of your earlier points, and value Welsches comments on how the horses are working and looking over the Churchill track. He's usually right on in his assessments and I will reserve judgment until then on who I think has the best chance to win, not who I hope wins. ;-)

[EquineAnne]

I love Gary, but I take his picks with a grain of salt. He is brilliant when he is right, but is quick to see something in the prerace hype if he's not right. Gary is the king of hindsight.
Now Jerry Bailey, I can't take him at all. Then again, he had to be my least favorite jock of all time.

Me either.

[EquineAnne]

Whoever is atop Siegel's list, I'm assuming will be your first toss?

Seigel/Siegel is pretty good. Of all the talking heads, he's has the most on the ball, IMO.

[Whos the Cowboy]

Seigel/Siegel is pretty good. Of all the talking heads, he's has the most on the ball, IMO.

Battaglia is on the Bodemeister bandwagon and he's fresh off picking one of the TC winners last year. I might try to bribe him into picking any other horse on the NBC broadcast of the KD

[dustino140]

Seigel/Siegel is pretty good. Of all the talking heads, he's has the most on the ball, IMO.

It's easy to look good when you pick the favorite in every single race ;-).

[Matt Converse]

I think Rags has an excellent chance, but it would seem he is rather trip dependent. He's been the victim of bad trips more than once.

Interesting you say that because I mapped out how I thought the race would go last night and Rags got a terrible trip, six-wide on the first turn and eight-wide turning for home. I think he prefers the outside but not sure he can afford to give away that much ground. Of course, you never know, Street Sense was a closer and he got a beautiful trip. I actually think the deep closers like Dullahan will get better trips, it's the mid-pack stalker/closers that look likely to have the worst trips.

[dustino140]

Interesting you say that because I mapped out how I thought the race would go last night and Rags got a terrible trip, six-wide on the first turn and eight-wide turning for home. I think he prefers the outside but not sure he can afford to give away that much ground. Of course, you never know, Street Sense was a closer and he got a beautiful trip. I actually think the deep closers like Dullahan will get better trips, it's the mid-pack stalker/closers that look likely to have the worst trips.

Why did you waste your time last night mapping out the race before you knew who was running and what post they'd draw?

[Matt Converse]

Matt, if UR hadn't finished his last 3/8th's strong without the use of the whip and on a track that wasn't kind to closing on the leader, I might be inclined to agree with you. Matz is only interested in having him ready for the Derby and making sure his peak performance comes there, unlike many of these "improving" horses who needed to win to get in. That's where your logic seems flawed to me in regard to Union Rags's progress. Even his easy works prior to his two preps as compared to his faster overall most recent work suggest that Matz didn't have him ready to give his best.

I just don't know why you expect this horse to jump up and run better in the big race when he has never done it. His BC Juvy, the race from last year he should have peaked for, was just a repeat of the numbers he ran earlier. Almost all arrows point to Union Rags running a 95 Beyer in the Derby. He runs that same number every single time and has for almost a year. I don't see that winning. I see that closing for somewhere between 4th and 8th.

That said, I do give him a chance because of his visual impression. He has one strike against him in my eyes with the beaten-to-death by me iffy pedigree, and he has another strike by not improving. But he's not out in my eyes because of the visual impression. But I think it's likely to be a bit decieving due to his running style. He's always going to be closing at the end, that's his style. I'll have him on a few tickets, he's not a total toss to me.

[Matt Converse]

Why did you waste your time last night mapping out the race before you knew who was running and what post they'd draw?

Because I couldn't wait! I guessed their post positions. Yeah, I know.

[dustino140]

Because I couldn't wait! I guessed their post positions. Yeah, I know.

This is why I enjoy you.

You could make the least optimistic person in the world do backflips for the Derby.

[EquineAnne]

It's easy to look good when you pick the favorite in every single race ;-).

Maybe, but he seems better than most.

[janpal]

I just don't know why you expect this horse to jump up and run better in the big race when he has never done it. His BC Juvy, the race from last year he should have peaked for, was just a repeat of the numbers he ran earlier. Almost all arrows point to Union Rags running a 95 Beyer in the Derby. He runs that same number every single time and has for almost a year. I don't see that winning. I see that closing for somewhere between 4th and 8th.

That said, I do give him a chance because of his visual impression. He has one strike against him in my eyes with the beaten-to-death by me iffy pedigree, and he has another strike by not improving. But he's not out in my eyes because of the visual impression. But I think it's likely to be a bit decieving due to his running style. He's always going to be closing at the end, that's his style. I'll have him on a few tickets,
he's not a total toss to me.

I understand your points and they are well-thought out and made. No doubt you may be right. We just differ on whether he has improved this year. You think because it hasn't translated to a better speed figure on the track yet with his two preps still being in the 90's that he's stayed the same. And I think that in the last race where we could have seen that breakthrough triple-beyer, circumstances with his trip, pace scenario and track bias made it impossible. Also, his works would suggest he has been brought along slowly this year. He's bigger, stronger, been training great and apparently according to Brette, his exercise rider, he's like Porshe, you touch him and he goes. Not the description one would expect to be given about a slow horse, and this guy and Matz have never been associated with the overstatement. Also, having trained Barbaro, they should have pretty good gauge as to what he is sitting on and possess. But, none of it's for sure until it's done on the track, I'll give you that. ;-) As always, good talking to you Matt. Like the way you discuss topics without casting judgment or ridiculing -- makes posting much more pleasant!

[Matt Converse]

Thanks, and back at you.

[tcw]

I just don't know why you expect this horse to jump up and run better in the big race when he has never done it. His BC Juvy, the race from last year he should have peaked for, was just a repeat of the numbers he ran earlier. Almost all arrows point to Union Rags running a 95 Beyer in the Derby. He runs that same number every single time and has for almost a year. I don't see that winning. I see that closing for somewhere between 4th and 8th.

That said, I do give him a chance because of his visual impression. He has one strike against him in my eyes with the beaten-to-death by me iffy pedigree, and he has another strike by not improving. But he's not out in my eyes because of the visual impression. But I think it's likely to be a bit decieving due to his running style. He's always going to be closing at the end, that's his style. I'll have him on a few tickets, he's not a total toss to me.

I keep hearing about improvement, so let's take a look at "improvement" with your most recent number one, Creative Cause. The horse jumps up and runs a whopping 102 BSF going 8 1/2f, and then drops some 8 points to a 94 when stretching out to 9f. Is that your definition of "improvment"? Well it's not mine, regardless of a horse's age and going from 2 yrs old to 3 yrs old. Personally, I see it as a troublesome sign when a horse makes a big drop like that when adding distance, especially at this time of year when stretching out to 9f. And yet it seems that your definition of "improvment" or the lack thereof has been solely focused and limited to two horses -- UR and Hansen. The fact is, Hansen has always been suspect for stretching out to 9f and beyond, and other than Bode, the rest of 'em have basically been running in the mid-90's, give or a take a few points. It's also worth noting that UR closed the final 3/8's in the Fl. Derby in :36.30 (Bode's Ark. Derby was :37.35).

Btw, you may want to take note of a couple other things. In regard to work patterns, one of Haskin's recent articles mentioned ever so subtly that UR's works leading up to the Fl. Derby were :50 3/5, 1:04 1/5, and :49 breezing. Do you really believe given the distance of these recent works and their respective times that this horse has been clamped down on in any way, and was anywhere near cranked for the Fl. Derby? His first work since the Fl. Derby was 48+, and you can better believe that Matz is going to tighten down on him big time in the coming weeks. An astute observer would have also noticed that UR was likely short for the BCJ given his work pattern leading up, which consisted of just one 5f work in 1:03 between the Champagne and the BCJ on 10/22/11. In 20 horse Derby field, it's always difficult to predict with any certainty what's going to happen, but I'll be very surprised if this horse doesn't show himself well if he's healthy and doing well going in.

[second_glance]

UR arrived at KEE today. Matz hasn't decided yet whether the colt will work at KEE or CD.

http://www.drf.com/news/keeneland-ke...rrives-florida

[TapitsGal]

I think out of all the horses in the race Union Rags and Hansen are my sentimental favorites to win

[janpal]

Part I ( Point Lookout ) and Part II ( Get Him! ) of his documentary are both up now. Great viewing!

http://www.trackpackpa.com/union-rags/