The Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas)(G1)

[tachyon]

NAKAYAMA 11R

THE SATSUKI SHO(JAPANESE 2000 GUINEAS)(G1)

April 15, 2012, 2000m, Turf
INT C&F DSN, Special Weight, 3-Year-Olds, Open Class, Value of race: 232,290,000 Yen


2011 Winner : Orfevre

1 Monstre(JPN) C3 57 Admire Max Yoshitomi Shibata
2 Adam's Peak(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact Nicola Pinna
3 Trip(JPN) C3 57 Kurofune Hironobu Tanabe
4 Meisho Kadomatsu(JPN) C3 57 Daiwa Major Kota Fujioka
5 Ardent(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact Shinji Fujita
6 Deep Brillante(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact Yasunari Iwata
7 Veiled Impact(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact Yusuke Fujioka
8 Satono Gallant(JPN) C3 57 Symboli Kris S Norihiro Yokoyama
9 World Ace(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact Yuichi Fukunaga
10 Snowdon(JPN) C3 57 Admire Moon Yuichi Kitamura
11 Meiner Robusto(JPN) C3 57 Zenno El Cid Yutaka Take
12 Fujimasa Emperor(JPN) C3 57 Symboli Kris S Katsuharu Tanaka
13 Silver Wave(JPN) C3 57 Jungle Pocket Hiroshi Kitamura
14 Gold Ship(JPN) C3 57 Stay Gold Hiroyuki Uchida
15 Cosmo Ozora(JPN) C3 57 Roses in May Daichi Shibata
16 Zelos(JPN) C3 57 King Kamehameha Yuga Kawada
17 Logi Major(JPN) C3 57 Daiwa Major Katsumi Ando
18 Grandezza(JPN) C3 57 Agnes Tachyon Mirco Demuro

comments from runners' connections
http://japanracing.jp/_news2012/120413-05.html

preview
http://japanracing.jp/_news2012/120410.html

barrier draw
http://japanracing.jp/_news2012/120413-03.html

pp of runners
http://japanracing.jp/_news2012/pdf/120404.pdf

[specialweek]

Rain all day Saturday will affect this race to some degree.
Two horses with the greatest chance of success are two which have issues that could prevent them running in the top 2 or 3. Deep Brillante needs to be handled better by Iwata than the last race and my top pick World Ace needs to begin much better than the last two races to win here.
I'll be roving 6 and 9 with the field and hope something at odds fills a top 3 slot as well.

[Uma]

Nakayama is a tricky course, and, moreover, the horses seem so equally matched in their current form that it will be the jockey and rain that decide the race. So I choose Nichola Pinna (Adam's Peak) and Mirco Demuro (Grandezza), followed by Iwata (Deep Brillante).

As for World Ace, I doubt the jockey in any male G1; he's a respectable record in G1s for fillies&mares, but is not good with male counterparts as the following data show:

Fukunaga's wins in male G1s:
●2005: Asahi Futurity　Stakes (turf mile G1 for 2yos)
●2005: February Stakes (dirt G1 for 4yo&up)
●2004: Takamatsunomiya Kinen (6f turf G1 for 4yo&up)
●2002: Asahi Futurity Stakes (turf mile G1 for 2yos)
●1999: the predecessor of Asahi Futurity Stakes (1 mile turf G1 for 2yos)

(*) Iwata has won the race twice, boarding Victoire Pisa (2010) and Unrivaled (2009). M Demuro, the best jockey now riding in Japan IMO, has won six male G1s since 2002, including '04Satsuki Sho(Daiwa Major) and the same race in 2003 (Neo Universe). As for Pinna, he won the Emperor's Cup (Tenno Sho Autumn 2011; Tosen Jordan), but that's not the reason I prefer him; it's due to the horse he boards that I've been watching before his debut.

[specialweek]

Fascinating stat re; Fukunaga. Never thought too much about his affinity with fillies or his recent lack of success with Colts or horses.

[specialweek]

Adam's Peak in the wet with a possible track upgrade by tomorrow any concern?

[tachyon]

-- JRA Race Programme
http://japanracing.jp/_pdf/informati...012/120415.pdf

-- Preiview by ''Keiblog''
http://www.keiblog.com/Keiblog/Keibl...ple_Crown.html

-- workout video

1 Monstre(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/01.asx (inside)
2 Adam's Peak(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/02.asx
3 Trip(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/03.asx
4 Meisho Kadomatsu(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/04.asx
5 Ardent(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/05.asx (outside)
6 Deep Brillante(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/06.asx (outside)
7 Veiled Impact(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/07.asx (inside)
8 Satono Gallant(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/08.asx (inside)
9 World Ace(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/09.asx
10 Snowdon(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/10.asx
11 Meiner Robusto(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/11.asx
12 Fujimasa Emperor(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/12.asx (center)
13 Silver Wave(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/13.asx
14 Gold Ship(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/14.asx
15 Cosmo Ozora(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/15.asx
16 Zelos(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/16.asx (outside)
17 Logi Major(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/17.asx (outside)
18 Grandezza(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/18.asx


-- Win odds as of 17:30 on Saturday

Grandezza 27/10


World Ace 3/1


Deep Brillante 5/1


Gold Ship 6/1

[tachyon]

Adam's Peak 10/1


Cosmo Ozora 13/1


Trip 29/1


Ardent 32/1

[tachyon]

Meisho Kadomatsu 34/1


Satono Gallant 34/1

Veiled Impact 39/1


Meiner Robusto 40/1


Zelos 42/1
Silver Wave 43/1
Logi Majpr 71/1
Monstre 75/1
Fujimasa Empreror 124/1
Snowdon 167/1

[tachyon]

World Ace and Grandezza impressed me the most in their prep races.
But Grandezza, one of my sentimental favorites, drew the widest post.
I believe that World Ace will win this, even if I am not thrilled with his name. He is the first Deep Impact son who reminded me of his sire. I wonder if his dam side suggests that he can handle the wet and the gives nicely.
Grandezza is for the second.
All the other Deep Impact's should also be competitive.
And I can't dismiss a colt who has the Stay Gold - Mejiro Mcqueen cross.
Roses in May's Cosmo Ozora should love the soft but drew poorly.

[LostInTheFog]

I'm rooting for Grandezza.

[Uma]

Adam's Peak in the wet with a possible track upgrade by tomorrow any concern?

Rather than the track condition, a cause for concern involves the jockey; a JRA database says that Pinna has never had a ride at Nakayama, and also he has no horse to ride tomorrow, except for a 1200m dirt race just before the G1; this is his first time around on the turf at the racecourse, which I admit is certainly not reassuring.

[Cantant]

I believe that World Ace will win this, even if I am not thrilled with his name. He is the first Deep Impact son who reminded me of his sire. I wonder if his dam side suggests that he can handle the wet and the gives nicely.

Mandela, World Ace's dam, is a half sister of Manduro, who handled soft ground, like his sire Monsun. However, Mandelas sire Acatenango was known for disliking wet ground and his best son Lando inherited that.
We'll have to wait and see I'll be rooting for this fella

[tachyon]

-- Grant Racing Form (English)

April 15: Nakayama, Hanshin, Fukushima
http://keibagrant.cocolog-nifty.com/...15-2012-n.html

Nakayama 11th (Satsuki Sho)
http://keibagrant.cocolog-nifty.com/...1120120415.pdf


It stopped raining last night and will be fine today in Nakayama area.
Turf condition will remain wet but might gradually improve from the rail side.

[tachyon]

Nakayama 8th was run on the turf labeled ''yielding''.
As they turned for home, all the jockeys skirted the rail side which could still remain rough.
World Ace moved to the 13/5 favorite.

[tachyon]

1st. Gold Ship
2nd. World Ace
3rd. Deep Brillante

Awww.. Stay Gold x Mejiro McQueen cross dominates again!!

[tachyon]

-- replay
high http://www.jra.go.jp/JRADB/asx/2012/...203060811h.asx
low http://www.jra.go.jp/JRADB/asx/2012/06/201203060811.asx


1st 7 14 Gold Ship(JPN)(Stay Gold x Point Flag by Mejiro McQueen) C3 57.0 2:01.3
2nd 5 9 World Ace(JPN)(Deep Impact x Mandela by Acatenango) C3 57.0 2:01.7 2 1/2
3rd 3 6 Deep Brillante(JPN)(Deep Impact x Love And Bubbles by Loup Sovage) C3 57.0 2:01.8 3/4
4th 7 15 Cosmo Ozora(JPN)(Roses in May x Meine Sharona by Commander in Chief) C3 57.0 2:01.8 NS
5th 8 18 Grandezza(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.0 1 1/4
6th 4 8 Satono Gallant(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.0 NS
7th 4 7 Veiled Impact(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.1 NK
8th 2 4 Meisho Kadomatsu(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.1 NS
9th 1 1 Monstre(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.2 1/2
10th 5 10 Snowdon(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.3 3/4
11th 3 5 Ardent(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.3 NS
12th 2 3 Trip(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.4 NK
13th 6 12 Fujimasa Emperor(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.5 1/2
14th 8 17 Logi Major(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.6 3/4
15th 7 13 Silver Wave(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.6 HD
16th 6 11 Meiner Robusto(JPN) C3 57.0 2:02.7 3/4
17th 8 16 Zelos(JPN) C3 57.0 2:03.5 5
18th 1 2 Adam's Peak(JPN) C3 57.0 2:04.8 8

[tachyon]

Here's a patrol video:
Fukunaga (World Ace) almost fell..
http://www.jra.go.jp/JRADB/asx/2012/...203060811p.asx

[Uma]

Glad for the jockey Uchida who was clever and courageous.

When his horse was defeated (finished third) in a G1, he curtly answered to an interviewer:'The difference of jockey brought this result.'

Since then, I've been cheering for him. This time you proved your class in a brilliant way! Congratulations!

[specialweek]

World Ace will be hard to beat from here on. Great race Uma by Adam's Peak.

[tachyon]

World Ace will be hard to beat from here on

I think that both Gold Ship and World Ace are very good horses.
True I felt like I was watching a replay of Street Sense's Kentucky Derby, but it is not to take anything away from today's impressive winner.
World Ace might have a better accelelation, turn of foot
But Gold Ship seems to have more stamina and power, maybe a right contender for the triple crown.
I am not sure that additional 400m at Tokyo will work to World Ace's advantage....

By the way, I guess it's worth having a look at Gold Ship's pedigree.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/gold+ship
This horse is very very Japanese, even more so than Orfevre.
Small and Medium sized breeders in Japan must be heartened by Gold Ship's romp today.