The boys get their chance this weekend and what a crack field it is with Deep Impact siring 7 of the 18 runners. The barrier draw has given me less confidence in some of my place getters but I can see World Ace going one better here than the Satsuki sho.
I have Goldship, Alfredo, Grandezza and Brightline as my 2nd and 3rd horses. The inside gates have proved more successful since the track remodel but hey stats can lie sometimes.
Tachyon will fill us in with all his good stuff later.
Spielberg will be an interesting horse to follow. His 1/2 brother is 1 win away from being a Triple Crown winning sire.
Last edited by Lava Man Fan; 05-24-2012 at 05:17 PM.
I'll Haveanotherone may have the wood on Spielberg. After a reassessment over night the draw does go against quite a few here.
Now have narrowed down to the following. World Ace, Fenomeno, Tosen Homareboshi(William's factor) and Goldship. Historical is the other I would throw in as a potential place.
I might just bet along the lines of my original plan and concentrate on the new analysis more so after the barrier draw.
Please have a look at the pedigree for Tosen Homareboshi and Historical. The dams of Tosen Homareboshi and Historical are full sisters who are out of Crafty Wife (USA) by Nothern Taste (Northern Dancer) (the grandam is a brilliant broodmare out of whose progeny lots of graded winners have come). Furthermore, the colts share the same sire.
Spielberg starts from the stall #1, which has turned out to be most preferable as the data below show, but the trainer, Mr K Fujisawa, judging from what he has said of the colt, seems not so confident in his current form:
■Stall# and placing in Tokyo Yushun from 2002 to 2011
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
stall# | 1st -2nd-3rd (winners)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
#1 | 3-1-0 (2010: Eishin Flash; 2009: Logi Universe; 2008: Deep Sky)
#2 | 1-0-0 (2006: Meisho Samson)
#3 | 2-1-1 (2007: Vodka; 2002: Tanino Gimlet)
#4 | 0-0-0
#5 | 2-1-0 (2005: Deep Impact; 2011: Orfevre)
#6 | 0-1-0
#7 | 0-2-2
#8 | 0-1-1
#9 | 0-0-0
#10 | 0-0-1
#11 | 0-1-0
#12 | 1-1-0 (2004: King Kamehameha)
#13 | 1-0-0 (2003: Neo Universe)
#14 | 0-0-1
#15 | 0-0-2
#16 | 0-1-0
#17 | 0-0-1
#18 | 0-0-1
Last edited by Uma; 05-24-2012 at 07:27 PM.
What releation does that make them Uma? Half brothers?
On closing speed as they have matured from last year to this, regardless of distance, they rate in this order.
Goldship 1st gate 6
Historical 2nd 2
World Ace 2nd 8
Elendard 4th 9
Spielberg 5th 1
Zelos 6th 3
Just another confusing and possibly useless stat.
Last edited by specialweek; 05-25-2012 at 12:48 AM.
TOKYO YUSHUN (JAPANESE DERBY) (G1)
2011 Winner : Orfevre
TOKYO 10R
THE TOKYO YUSHUN (JAPANESE DERBY)(G1)
May 27, 2012, 2400m, Turf
INT C&F DSN, Special Weight, 3-Year-Olds, Open Class, Value of race: 339,300,000 Yen
1 Spielberg(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact x Princess Olivia by Lycius : Norihiro Yokoyama
2 Historical(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact x Brilliant Very by Northern Taste : Katsumi Ando
3 Zelos(JPN) C3 57 King Kamehameha x Samson Fairy by Sunday Silence : Yuga Kawada
4 Just a Way(JPN) C3 57 Heart's Cry x Sibyl by Wild Again : Shinichiro Akiyama
5 Veiled Impact(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact x Violet Love by Dr Devious : Yusuke Fujioka
6 Gold Ship(JPN) C3 57 Stay Gold x Point Flag by Mejiro McQueen : Hiroyuki Uchida
7 Cosmo Ozora(JPN) C3 57 Roses in May x Meine Sharona by Commander in Chief : Daichi Shibata
8 World Ace(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact x Mandela by Acatenango : Yuichi Fukunaga
9 Etendard(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact x Miss Pemberley by Montjeu : Masami Matsuoka
10 Deep Brillante(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact x Love And Bubbles by Loup Sauvage : Yasunari Iwata
11 Fenomeno(JPN) C3 57 Stay Gold x De Laroche by Danehill : Masayoshi Ebina
12 Trip(JPN) C3 57 Kurofune x Be Positive by Sunday Silence : Hironobu Tanabe
13 Clarente(JPN) C3 57 Dance in the Dark x Erimo Pixy by Dancing Brave : Futoshi Komaki
14 Tosen Homareboshi(JPN) C3 57 Deep Impact x Every Whisper by Northern Taste : Craig Williams
15 Brightline(JPN) C3 57 Fuji Kiseki x Cherie's Smile by King of Kings : Tetsuzo Sato
16 Monstre(JPN) C3 57 Admire Max x Isono Swallow by Dehere : Yoshitomi Shibata
17 Grandezza(JPN) C3 57 Agnes Tachyon x Marbye by Marju : Kenichi Ikezoe
18 Alfredo(JPN) C3 57 Symboli Kris S x Princess Camellia by Sunday Silence : Yutaka Take
-- preiview
http://japanracing.jp/_news2012/120522.html
-- barrier draw
http://japanracing.jp/_news2012/120525.html
-- comments from runners' connections
http://www.keiblog.com/Keiblog/Keibl...-_Preview.html
-- data analysis
http://japanracing.jp/_news2012/120518-02.html
-- race programme
-- ''keiblog''
http://www.keiblog.com/Keiblog/Keibl...-_Preview.html
-- workout video
1 Spielberg(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/01.asx
2 Historical(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/02.asx
3 Zelos(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/03.asx
4 Just a Way(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/04.asx
5 Veiled Impact(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/05.asx (inside)
6 Gold Ship(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/06.asx
7 Cosmo Ozora(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/07.asx
8 World Ace(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/08.asx (inside)
9 Etendard(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/09.asx
10 Deep Brillante(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/10.asx
11 Fenomeno(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/11.asx (inside)
12 Trip(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/12.asx
13 Clarente(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/13.asx
14 Tosen Homareboshi(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/14.asx (center)
15 Brightline(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/15.asx
16 Monstre(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/16.asx
17 Grandezza(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/17.asx (inside)
18 Alfredo(JPN) http://www.jra.go.jp/keiba/thisweek/...raining/18.asx
What time is this race? I'm trying to make the conversion here
posttime is 15:40 on May 27th (local time)Originally Posted by mariasmon
What time is this race? I'm trying to make the conversion here
02:40 on May 27th (EST)
23:40 on May 26th (PST)
Thank you so much! And you even made the conversions! You rock
Thank you so much! And you even made the conversions! You rock
You are welcome!
I will be off to the track. It is going to be a beautiful day tomorrow and turf condition will be firm.
This is definitely a wonderful field.
Deep Impacts vs Satsuki Sho winner?
-- Win odds as of 12:30 pm on May 26th
World Ace (9/5 fav)
Gold Ship (13/5)
Deep Brillante (9/1)
Historical (10/1)
Last edited by tachyon; 12-16-2012 at 03:49 AM.
Tosen Homareboshi (13/1)
Fenomeno (14/1)
Grandezza (15/1)
Alfredo (24/1)
Last edited by tachyon; 12-16-2012 at 03:50 AM.
Spielberg (25/1)
Cosmo Ozora (28/1)
Zelos (49/1)
Clarente (56/1)
Etendard (57/1)
Veiled Impact (72/1)
Just a Way (80/1)
Trip (105/1)
Monstre (121/1)
Brightline (132/1)
Last edited by tachyon; 12-16-2012 at 03:50 AM.
-- JRA race programme (May 27th Tokyo)
http://japanracing.jp/_pdf/informati...012/120526.pdf
-- ''Grant Racing Form''
10R (Tokyo Yushun)
http://keibagrant.cocolog-nifty.com/...1020120527.pdf
Wow. Spielberg is a looker.
I think that Gold Ship and World Ace are the two best horses here.
While the firm turf condition tomorrow may give World Ace advantage, Gold Ship can welcome the additional 400m.
Among other Deep Impact sons, I like Historical and Tosen Homareboshi.
Of the longshots, I like Just a Way (92/1). Heart's Cry offspring seem to do well at Tokyo turf and he has a nice closing kick.
Pity, Grandezza had a bad draw again. But he may still have the ability to hit the board, if Ikezoe can race him up-front.
Last edited by tachyon; 05-26-2012 at 05:47 AM.
Other than the fave I have found new ways to place the next two in the race and have decided to go with multiple bet types.
The Fukunaga jockey factor does worry me. 1. Not won a Derby as yet. 2. Has not ridden a male G1 winner since 2005. Ikee the trainer had a stellar 2011 but everything seems to be going pear shape this year.
Hopefully that all changes today.
I don't worry too much about ''the Fukunaga factor''.
Yuichi Fukunaga's father Yoichi Fukunaga couldn't win the Japanese Derby, either.
Based in Kansai, Yoichi Fukunaga was the leading jockey nicknamed ''genius'' when I was young. He was seriously injured due to a spill and rendered paraplegic.
A Derby win is really a long-cherished wish for the family. And I think that Yuichi is good enough to smash the jinx at some point.
Of other horses than I noted earlier, Iwata is said to be confident about his chance to do well with Deep Brillante.
Last edited by tachyon; 05-26-2012 at 05:02 PM.
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