O'Neil just cost himself the Triple Crown

[stuff]

Do you work with horses? I only ask because I've ridden perfectly sound animals who were sticky on one lead or the other, out of sheer preference, or because they once had a bad experience (e.g., ridden with a minor injury that is now healed but well ingrained in their memory). It wouldn't surprise me if the same animals (not machines - you use a lot of ultimatiums like "no 100% sound horse") in a different scenario would be sluggish about swapping leads if they like one more than the other.

ETA: I was trying to remember the horse I'd heard had trouble with leads - it was Alydar. He very rarely swapped leads in the stretch.

I've worked with horses all my life. I've shown horses but spent most of my time on the track, including galloping horses. It's not like a show horse who are generally one sided or another. If you look at most racehorses, they will accelerate once they swap over to their right lead. In fact, most racehorses that come off the track are more right sided than left sided because they're used to spending more time on that lead. Of course they are going to spend more time on their left lead in the Belmont. It has bigger turns. A tiring or leg weary horse will need help changing that lead coming out of the last turn. A sore horse will either not swap leads or flip back and forth.

I don't know anything more about IHA other than what is out there for public knowledge. I merely offered my opinion based on what the trainer has said and what I've seen. He's said he gets body sore adn they have `Thumper' travelling with them. I've worked with `Thumper', and he does great work, but I'm guessing he's there for a reason.

I'm not sure why having an opinion or saying everything is perfect and it's a lock is so offensive to some and brands me a `hater'. It's a discussion board, no?

[stuff]

You don't need to gamble, I was just pointing out that not liking a horse doesn't make you a hater. A hater is someone like me and Big Brown. I don't hate IHA, but I don't like him in the Belmont. I think Paynter beats him or Paynter costs him the race. Go with him and lose or don't go with him and lose. That horse isn't Bodemeister. He looks much more mature and when he hits the stretch he might just have another gear. Street Life or Paynter for me.

Baffert said he always considered Paynter the better of the two between him and Bodemeister. I don't know much about the horse other than that Baffert doesn't usually ship if he doesn't have a serious shot.

[Insane Crazy]

I'm not sure why having an opinion or saying everything is perfect and it's a lock is so offensive to some and brands me a `hater'. It's a discussion board, no?

As a note, I didn't call you a hater in any way. I was interested in your input and offering my own. No hating here (for you, anyhow. =P)

[stuff]

As a note, I didn't call you a hater in any way. I was interested in your input and offering my own. No hating here (for you, anyhow. =P)

The `hater' remark was for the OP that keeps calling me that. In all honestly, when I heard Thumper was travelling with Team O'Neill that's when I started to take a closer look. that's all.

[Skywalker]

Baffert said he always considered Paynter the better of the two between him and Bodemeister. I don't know much about the horse other than that Baffert doesn't usually ship if he doesn't have a serious shot.

Baffert chucked Paynter into the deep waters really quick. He must have really liked him, but Bodemeister seems freakishly fast. I can see him liking Paynter over Bode for the Belmont at 12f, but I don't think anyone can beat Bode at 9f.

[Miss Woodford]

We do know he had sore shins last year. We do know that O'Neill himself said he got a `little tight' over the loins, which is body sore. You don't have to be three legged lame to be `sore'. That's all I'm saying. He's LITTLE. These races pound on the biggest and most strapping horses.

War Admiral was LITTLE too

Between the Preakness and the June 5 Belmont Stakes, trainer George Conway poured it to the little Admiral. Working at three-day intervals, War Admiral breezed 11 furlongs in 2:22, 12 furlongs in 2:35.40, 12 furlongs in 2:34.60, and 12 furlongs again in 2:34.60, the last move coming just three days before the Belmont.

Also, in the 3 weeks between his Derby and Belmont, Gallant Fox had no fewer than 3 all-out works, including a 1 1/8 work in 1:50 (just shy of the world record at the time) 4 days before the Belmont, and a tightener the day before.

Here's Assault's Triple Crown season schedule

MAY
3 – 4F in :48
4 – Won Kentucky Derby by 8 in 2:06 on sloppy track
5 – walked at CD
6 – shipped to Pimlico
8 – 3F in :40
9 – 8F in 1:45
11 – Won Preakness Stakes by a neck in 2:01 on fast track
12 – shipped to Belmont
16 – 4F in :52
18 – 3F in :40
20 – 4F in :48
22 – 8F in 1:44
24 – 3F in :35
25 – 1.25 miles in 2:05 (:50, 1:15, 1:40, 2:05)
28 – 4F in :50
29 – 1.5 miles in 2:32
JUNE
1 – Won Belmont Stakes by 3 in 2:31 on fast track
5 – 4F in :52
7 – 4F in :51
9 – 8F in 1:43
11 – 3F in :36
13 – 8F in 1:43 at Aqueduct
15 – Won Dwyer Stakes by 5 lengths in 2:07 on fast track

[sweettalk]

yea, i'd like my 2nd place G3 horse more than my 2nd place in the derby/preakness horse better, too.

i think baffert's a little delusional.

[Spahny]

If Paynter goes to the lead I'll Have Another will have no problem running him down. The problem will be if he gets to him too early, which is very possible. I don't think IHA stays on well after getting the lead. That's his only weakness.

So... What's behind him?

I think Dullahan is overrated. The blimp shot of the Derby shows me that he was not flying late and he never got close to the winner on the gallop out. That one was Went The Day Well, who floundered at Pimlico. The closers in the Derby are being over bet. I know. I fell for it.

Union Rags is the main threat. If he can be in the race throughout, somewhere right behind IHA, he has a shot.

I'll Have Another is the best horse in the race. I hope he wins. Betting against him makes some sense considering his assignment and all of those that came before him who have failed. But as of now he seems to be perfect. As of now I am just his fan. We'll see if that changes in the next two weeks.

[gravano]

I agree union rags is the biggest threat. I think Dullahan is a classic closer and the added distance will flatten him out.

[Kurenai]

A timed 5 furlong workout does not matter for the Belmont, at all. If anything they should let him gallop longer than usual. Cause well, in the Belmont he has to run further than usual too, duh. If he has too much energy a quick blow out before race day would do the trick.

About the switching leads: there are some horses that hate to run on a certain lead. Could be because some of their muscles are tightened up (IHA has a chiropractier with him), or that they simply don't want to. You could put some work into the horse to gymnasticize. Although that would require a lot of work (dressage) and would have to be done usually over the winter when the horse is on a farm for a few weeks to get a breather and on top of that you would have to keep up the work, while the horse is in training. So in IHA's case (or any other race horse): nope, not going to happen.

Soreness: doesn't mean the horse will break down at all. Could explain also the switching leads problem, but doesn't have to be the reason for it. He probably just feels the wear and tear. Compare it to humans who sit the whole day in front of a computer, they have a bit of a sore neck. Doesn't really hurt, doesn't cause any real damage, but it's uncomfortable. So if a horse is a little sore and has to run a big race, you probably don't want to pound on him with timed works, but you rather do long and slow gallops. He's got the speed anyway, he has the kick. Just gotta train stamina. And that's good for his soreness (if there is even some) too.

I'm not a hater (before you call me that now too), I root for IHA. And so far I think that O'Neill has done a wonderful job. He knows the horse, he knows what he is doing.

Does anyone know how far they let him gallop/canter actually? That would be really interesting. I surely hope it's like 2 miles or even 2.5 miles.

[katmandu]

Stuff says: I've shown horses but spent most of my time on the track, including galloping horses. It's not like a show horse who are generally one sided or another.

HUH? What type of show horses would that be?

A sore horse will either not swap leads or flip back and forth.

That may be true but what is also true is that flying changes require a certain type of athletic ability and not all horses are equally adept at this. And you can get a horse with a strong handedness that is markedly unequally developed. It does not mean that he is not one heck of a racehorse, if he does not run as well balanced as some horses. Race horses aren't particularly known for their suppleness, they generally come off the track stiff as boards.

[tcw]

I agree union rags is the biggest threat.

Agreed. He's a big horse with the stride to go with it, and has the grinding type of running style that often fares well in this race. He also has JV up, who is very familiar with this track and has won it before aboard Rags to Riches.

[stuff]

Stuff says: I've shown horses but spent most of my time on the track, including galloping horses. It's not like a show horse who are generally one sided or another.

HUH? What type of show horses would that be?

A sore horse will either not swap leads or flip back and forth.

That may be true but what is also true is that flying changes require a certain type of athletic ability and not all horses are equally adept at this. And you can get a horse with a strong handedness that is markedly unequally developed. It does not mean that he is not one heck of a racehorse, if he does not run as well balanced as some horses. Race horses aren't particularly known for their suppleness, they generally come off the track stiff as boards.

What does what horses I have shown have to do with anything. Would you like my home address too? Believe me or not. My point is that a racehorse is vastly different than any kind of horse you ride. Yes, balance and all the good stuff helps. The fact is, that most of these horses have never done much more beyond go around to the left. Nobody said he wasn't a good race horse. It was an observation. Hopefully, you realize the difference between doing a flying lead change in collection and doing one at a gallop going over 35mph. Hopefully you also realize that a gallop and a canter/lope are not the same gaits as well.

[reverberate]

The horse doesn't need to be worked. I've been watching him for the past week and he's fine galloping him up to the race a good decision because they don't have to do much with him

[tcw]

Between the Preakness and the June 5 Belmont Stakes, trainer George Conway poured it to the little Admiral. Working at three-day intervals, War Admiral breezed 11 furlongs in 2:22, 12 furlongs in 2:35.40, 12 furlongs in 2:34.60, and 12 furlongs again in 2:34.60, the last move coming just three days before the Belmont.

Compared to War Admiral, it looks like Secretariat got off easy between the Preakness and Belmont.

[EquineAnne]

That is the difference between a TC winner and a TC loser.

now we know why Alydarling lost!

[Starine]

The real question is:

How many needless threads can Skywalker create before Belmont Stakes Day?

[Miss Woodford]

Compared to War Admiral, it looks like Secretariat got off easy between the Preakness and Belmont.

War Admiral was just a bundle of nervous energy. Even with all that work he acted up in the gate (they waited 8 minutes at the post for him to settle) cut his foot and still set a new track record in the Belmont.

[Secretariat Forever]

Anyway, the horse will surely have plenty of time off after the Belmont, regardless of outcome. But he seems so mentally together that it's hard to believe he won't settle, work or no. Some of his gallops are practically 2-minute licks.

Exactly this.


I'm not 2nd guessing how they prepare him now. I have liked the way they have been preparing him. Quite a few things have been very old school. Like shipping to the track to get as much time over it as possible right away, long strong gallops and asked for more speed at the end of them. He's as fit as can be right now. And like mariasmon said, this horse seems so mentally professional even if he's LOADED with energy from not working between, I don't think Mario will have a problem getting him to do what he needs. He hasn't in the past, even after a 5 month lay off. So why should he now after two of the biggest races in his life? He gets enough out of his gallops to make up for one timed work.

[katmandu]

Actually, stuff, you were the one that brought up "show horses" (and their supposedly unique sidedness), perhaps you missed the point. . . . .

All horses are sided (not just show horses), it is thought to be a function of how they were "curled" in utero.

I can assure you, I am quite aware of the footfall/rhythm of the gaits. Well, except for the lope - whatever
that is. . .