BC Top 5's

[Kennedy]

With the Derby past us I'm already looking forward to the Breeders' Cup. On the first Monday of each month from now to the Breeders' Cup I'll try to post my top 5's in each race where I actually have an opinion. For now that means leaving out the Juvie races, Marathon and Turf Sprint. Like the Derby Dozen thread you all should feel free to post your top BC picks as well.

Classic
Zenyatta
Battle Plan
Summer Bird
Blame
Rail Trip

Turf
Fame And Glory
Spanish Moon
Kite Wood
Take the Points
Musketier

Mile
Gio Ponti
Goldikova
Special Duty
Courageous Cat
Dick Turpin

Sprint
Hollywood Hit
Custom for Carlos
Warrior's Reward
Musket Man
Cash Refund

Dirt Mile
Quality Road
Arson Squad
Sidney's Candy
Convocation
Mythical Power

Distaff
Unrivaled Belle
Blind Luck
Life At Ten
Careless Jewel
Evening Jewel

FM Turf
Dar Re Mi
Shemiyla
Proviso
Forever Together
Wasted Tears

FM Sprint
Franny Freud
Free Flying Soul
Tar Heel Mom
Informed Decision
Warbling

Hope everyone enjoys the road to the Breeders' Cup!

[ManOTaz]

And you do not have Quality Road in that field for either the dirt mile or the Classic?

[seahawkgal]

[quote author=ManOTaz link=topic=42887.msg943053#msg943053 date=1272912500]
And you do not have Quality Road in that field for either the dirt mile or the Classic?
[/quote]
Right, or Rachel in either the Classic or Distaff. She at least should be top 5 for the distaff.

[Kennedy]

[quote author=ManOTaz link=topic=42887.msg943053#msg943053 date=1272912500]
And you do not have Quality Road in that field for either the dirt mile or the Classic?
[/quote]

??? Quality Road is my #1 for the Dirt Mile. Not sure how you missed that.

[Kennedy]

[quote author=seahawkgal link=topic=42887.msg943056#msg943056 date=1272912693]
[quote author=ManOTaz link=topic=42887.msg943053#msg943053 date=1272912500]
And you do not have Quality Road in that field for either the dirt mile or the Classic?
[/quote]
Right, or Rachel in either the Classic or Distaff. She at least should be top 5 for the distaff.
[/quote]

I happen to disagree, you can feel free to make your own list.

I honestly do not believe that Rachel Alexandra will be in training by the time the Breeder's Cup rolls around. So, in keeping with that belief I would find it hard to select her for a Breeders' Cup race.

[SecretariatForever]

Kennedy, not disagreeing with you or anything just wondering. :smiley:

1. Why no Rachel?
2. Do you think Quality Road will actually be in the Mile not the Classic, is that why you put him there?

[ezgoerbaby]

I'm almost positive that if QR stays healthy, he will point to the Classic. Not the mile. The Classic puts the shine on a young stud prospect more than the BC Dirt Mile.

[Kennedy]

[quote author=Secretariat Forever link=topic=42887.msg943068#msg943068 date=1272913481]
Kennedy, not disagreeing with you or anything just wondering. :smiley:

1. Why no Rachel?
2. Do you think Quality Road will actually be in the Mile not the Classic, is that why you put him there?
[/quote]

I think Rachel is past her best and will not still be campaigning once the BC rolls around. She's a good horse to be sure but her connections expect her to be a great horse and I'm not sure that she can live up to that this year. I expect her to be taken out of training possibly even without another start. This is still the first list though, if Rachel gets her old swagger back I'll have no qualms about placing her well up the list.

As for Quality Road I have him in the Dirt Mile because I think it's his best distance. His connections will likely send him to the Met Mile, Whitney then perhaps the Woodward or JCGC. If he loses a race like the JCGC again I think they'll revert him back to the race where he would be nearly unbeatable. Based on what I've seen from him so far he wouldn't be my top Classic selection anyway. 4th or 5th at best.

[SecretariatForever]

[quote author=Kennedy link=topic=42887.msg943074#msg943074 date=1272913794]
As for Quality Road I have him in the Dirt Mile because I think it's his best distance. His connections will likely send him to the Met Mile, Whitney then perhaps the Woodward of JCGC. If he loses a race like the JCGC again I think they'll revert him back to the race where he would be nearly unbeatable.
[/quote]

If he wins the JCGC?

Also, if Careless Jewel comes back this year to her form last year or better would you think she's the one to beat in the Distaff? (I already know her connections won't put her in the Classic)

[wesley30]

No Super Saver? he's proven that he likes the track and he'll have borel riding him. also, i thought conveyance looked like a top miler so i don't know why he's not considered one of the top 5.

lastly, i was speaking with one of her current connections who told me that bob baffert thinks that fanny freud is going to be better than indian blessing.

[Miss Woodford]

I see you aren't a believer in Atta Boy Roy?

[Kennedy]

[quote author=Secretariat Forever link=topic=42887.msg943077#msg943077 date=1272913989]
[quote author=Kennedy link=topic=42887.msg943074#msg943074 date=1272913794]
As for Quality Road I have him in the Dirt Mile because I think it's his best distance. His connections will likely send him to the Met Mile, Whitney then perhaps the Woodward of JCGC. If he loses a race like the JCGC again I think they'll revert him back to the race where he would be nearly unbeatable.
[/quote]

If he wins the JCGC?
[/quote]

Then I have plenty of time to change my list. Remember this is the first installment of a series of lists that will go on for 7 months. This is the rough equivalent of a Derby list in November. Things will change this is just my early shot at it.

Careless Jewel could easily be my #1 but I do want to make sure she's okay before then.

Something else my lists are missing are the Godolphin horses (Kite Wood excepted) that should start making a splash during Saratoga. They always have several live ones in the second half of the year but I'm really not sure which ones have come through their winters in Dubai well enough to be dominant forces in America. We'll have to wait and see on that.

[Kennedy]

[quote author=wesley30 link=topic=42887.msg943083#msg943083 date=1272914284]
No Super Saver? he's proven that he likes the track and he'll have borel riding him. also, i thought conveyance looked like a top miler so i don't know why he's not considered one of the top 5.[/quote]

Not yet for me. Horses that have big springs often have poor falls. Super Saver's form has been great but I'm not convinced that he'll be in his best form of the season once the Triple Crown is done with him.

lastly, i was speaking with one of her current connections who told me that bob baffert thinks that fanny freud is going to be better than indian blessing.

I agree, and it's why I make her the #1 FM Sprint filly. I was also very tempted to add Midst who beat Franny as a 2yo and only just returned to the races at Keeneland. She looked a bit rusty that day but still won in a gallop.

[EquineAnne]

[quote author=Kennedy link=topic=42887.msg943074#msg943074 date=1272913794]
[quote author=Secretariat Forever link=topic=42887.msg943068#msg943068 date=1272913481]
Kennedy, not disagreeing with you or anything just wondering. :smiley:

1. Why no Rachel?
2. Do you think Quality Road will actually be in the Mile not the Classic, is that why you put him there?
[/quote]

I think Rachel is past her best and will not still be campaigning once the BC rolls around. She's a good horse to be sure but her connections expect her to be a great horse and I'm not sure that she can live up to that this year. I expect her to be taken out of training possibly even without another start. This is still the first list though, if Rachel gets her old swagger back I'll have no qualms about placing her well up the list.

As for Quality Road I have him in the Dirt Mile because I think it's his best distance. His connections will likely send him to the Met Mile, Whitney then perhaps the Woodward or JCGC. If he loses a race like the JCGC again I think they'll revert him back to the race where he would be nearly unbeatable. Based on what I've seen from him so far he wouldn't be my top Classic selection anyway. 4th or 5th at best.
[/quote]

I fear you are right Kennedy.

[Noble]

I personally do hope they keep Rachel pointed toward the Distaff and not the Classic. Keep it realistic and for her sake. A 8.5F race in a 6-horse field with a soft pace is already a struggle. Keep her at a mile and an eighth, max. If she continues to lose at 8.5F, point her at the shorter distance (Dirt Mile) or try out a different surface. Unless she runs the tables from now, another HotY is a longshot for her. She could still be a very good horse this year if they don't push her too hard at the distance. The 9F distance was already a struggle against open company for her last year in the Woodward. The Rachel we all know and love from last year just isn't better. Open company is THE REAL WORLD now and there is less weight-breaks.

It is not a knock at this horse and I'm not trying to demote her, but it is to keep things with the right perspective for her sake. Keep the expectations realistic for her to surpass them. Don't put her too high on that pedestal this year just because of what you saw last year. Championship form doesn't alway carry on after the next year. Look at sports teams. People don't realize how difficult it is for teams to repeat as champions. If you were part of any team, behind the scenes takes alot of hard work. Repeating as champs isn't easy unless you're like the Yankees or something.

I remember when Favorite Trick won HotY, he never really proved he was a distance horse at 3YO and Mott decided to put him on grass going a mile. To save face, retire her. I do think that is premature. I still do believe RA can still compete at a high level with another shot. But the expectations for her need to be lower. Let her get her groove back. RA is still a mortal lock for the HoF no matter what they do with her now. But I suggest the Distaff since these older females are giving her fits at 8.5F already.

But unlike Z's connections, if JJ can swallow his pride, he has less pressure with RA now and can get creative on what to do with her. Everytime Z wins, there is that bubble getting bigger and ready to burst. More pressure. I would love to see RA in the Vanity next month, but I know that is a pipe dream. My excitement for RA vs Z showdown just isn't there anymore. The luster wore off. A Unrivaled Belle vs Rachel Alexandra rematch seems to be more exciting since they both had a great stretch battle last Friday.

[seahawkgal]

Fair enough Kennedy. I guess we will see where QR and RA are this fall.
The lists can always be updated.

[SecretariatForever]

[quote author=Noble link=topic=42887.msg943103#msg943103 date=1272915461]
I personally do hope they keep Rachel pointed toward the Distaff and not the Classic. Keep it realistic and for her sake. A 8.5F race in a 6-horse field with a soft pace is already a struggle. Keep her at a mile and an eighth, max. If she continues to lose at 8.5F, point her at the shorter distance (Dirt Mile) or try out a different surface.
[/quote]


If Rachel can stay in good form and get better towards the Classic I think she could do fine. Do I think a 1 1/4 is going to be her best distance? No, I never have. But so far there isn't too much out there besides Zenyatta, Battle Plan, Misremembered, and a few others who all will more than likely get the 1 1/4 better than her. (we know Zen, and Misremembered can definitely handle a 1 1/4.) There's also Rail Trip, who if he comes back at top form will definitely be hard to handle in the Classic, assuming he likes the dirt. And Quality Road, well I'll wait to see how good he stays before I say if the Dirt Mile or Classic is better for him. If he keeps up his monster performances, then they no doubt try the Classic with him as I think they should. But how do we know they will all make it there? The Classic could turn up even softer if a few of them don't. So, if the Classic comes up strong, Rachel is probably better off in the Ladies Classic. If it doesn't, then heck why not try the Classic? This is all depending on her form by then though. If she's in the best form she's ever been, then I think she should try the Classic. And I'm sure that's where she will go if she's at her best. THEN assuming both her and Zen can get there, we'll have our long awaited match up!

As for the Dirt Mile with her, I'm not saying she's slow cause she's not, but I don't think she's quite "fast". If Quality Road would be in the Dirt Mile, I really don't think she could beat him going that short. And probably not a few others who are up there in the "fast" category. Again, I'm not saying she's slow, don't take it as I'm insulting her or anything.

What would you rather take a chance at placing well in the Classic or a placing in the Dirt Mile? Basically, I'm saying that if she only gets a little better or just stays the same then I say Ladies Classic for her. If she starts to get really good, then I say Classic.

Forgive me if I forgot any horses that I should have mentioned, I'm just thinking off the top of my head.

[Noble]

BCC Exacta Box
Zenyatta / Borel

Borel can pull the upset against Z, but not on SS or RA.

[Horsebagger]

[quote author=Kennedy link=topic=42887.msg943074#msg943074 date=1272913794]
[quote author=Secretariat Forever link=topic=42887.msg943068#msg943068 date=1272913481]
Kennedy, not disagreeing with you or anything just wondering. :smiley:

1. Why no Rachel?
2. Do you think Quality Road will actually be in the Mile not the Classic, is that why you put him there?
[/quote]

I think Rachel is past her best and will not still be campaigning once the BC rolls around. She's a good horse to be sure but her connections expect her to be a great horse and I'm not sure that she can live up to that this year. I expect her to be taken out of training possibly even without another start. This is still the first list though, if Rachel gets her old swagger back I'll have no qualms about placing her well up the list.

As for Quality Road I have him in the Dirt Mile because I think it's his best distance. His connections will likely send him to the Met Mile, Whitney then perhaps the Woodward or JCGC. If he loses a race like the JCGC again I think they'll revert him back to the race where he would be nearly unbeatable. Based on what I've seen from him so far he wouldn't be my top Classic selection anyway. 4th or 5th at best.
[/quote]


Agree about Rachel, disagree about Quality Road. Don't see these connections in the Breeders Cup and running in the Mile, especially if he had already won the Met Mile (which he obviously hasn't yet, but you get the point).

Kudos for a grandiose undertaking, trying to figure out who's going to be in all the different BC races at this point, but I'd really be impressed if you gave me the 2yos also already!

[Songofthesword]

[quote author=Kennedy link=topic=42887.msg943048#msg943048 date=1272912354]
With the Derby past us I'm already looking forward to the Breeders' Cup. On the first Monday of each month from now to the Breeders' Cup I'll try to post my top 5's in each race where I actually have an opinion. For now that means leaving out the Juvie races, Marathon and Turf Sprint. Like the Derby Dozen thread you all should feel free to post your top BC picks as well.

Classic
Zenyatta
Battle Plan
Summer Bird
Blame
Rail Trip

Turf
Fame And Glory
Spanish Moon
Kite Wood
Take the Points
Musketier

Mile
Gio Ponti
Goldikova
Special Duty
Courageous Cat
Dick Turpin

Sprint
Hollywood Hit
Custom for Carlos
Warrior's Reward
Musket Man
Cash Refund

Dirt Mile
Quality Road
Arson Squad
Sidney's Candy
Convocation
Mythical Power

Distaff
Unrivaled Belle
Blind Luck
Life At Ten
Careless Jewel
Evening Jewel

FM Turf
Dar Re Mi
Shemiyla
Proviso
Forever Together
Wasted Tears

FM Sprint
Franny Freud
Free Flying Soul
Tar Heel Mom
Informed Decision
Warbling

Hope everyone enjoys the road to the Breeders' Cup!
[/quote]


take rail trip out the classic as it's not on synthetic this year, add for now ice box or fifth third

probably both


the turf i'd go with bourbon bay, loup breton, gio ponti, fame and glory and dae rai me not in that order


there will be a FEW horses out of the derby that are going to give some sprint horses fits. conveyance and / or sidney's candy come to mind. don't forget about D'Funnybone. throw the last out


there is no way in hell quality road will be in the dirt mile

gabby's golden girl deserves to be on the f and m sprint.

i'd put noble's promise on the dirt mile list


put tuscan evening on your mile list.