Japanese Derby

[specialweek]

Well, if you thought the Oaks was exciting, the race that promises so much more this year is the Derby.
There are, in my opinion, 6 strong chances this year and even then I might have missed the winner.
Barrrier draw later in the week with the prospect of fine weather.
For me Pelusa, Victoire Pisa, [s]Danon Chantilly[/s], Rulership, Eishin Flash, Rose Kingdom. Should be over 100,000 at the track.

[Songofthesword]

a horse would have to basically get piggy back on top of one of the other horses to beat what i saw saturday night.

[specialweek]

[quote author=Songofthesword link=topic=43412.msg955404#msg955404 date=1274747182]
a horse would have to basically get piggy back on top of one of the other horses to beat what i saw saturday night.
[/quote]

18 colts this time that seem to better than the fillies this year. The fillles have been dominant last few years.

[specialweek]

As always I'd be very interested what umanosuke and tachyon think about the Derby.

[Cantant]

Very hard to pick.
Victoire Pisa looks great, will he get the trip?
Pelusa may start as the second favorite. Those two seem to have the best performances prior to the Derby.
However, a lot of other good horses could pull it off (f. e. Eishin Flash). I will keep my eyes on risky ones like To The Glory and Aliseo. But to be honest, this indeed looks like an open contest with a lot of chances.

[specialweek]

Sadly, Danon Chantilly is out of the Derby with an illness(not sure what as yet)

[tachyon]

[quote author=specialweek link=topic=43412.msg957688#msg957688 date=1275091022]
Sadly, Danon Chantilly is out of the Derby with an illness(not sure what as yet)
[/quote]

What a bummer...
According to keibabook web, he broke his metatarsus bone.
Is he a victim of the asphaltic turf?
I just hope he gets well soon.

[specialweek]

1 cm fracture so maybe not too bad for his future.

[tachyon]

[quote author=specialweek link=topic=43412.msg957737#msg957737 date=1275097015]
1 cm fracture so maybe not too bad for his future.
[/quote]

That's good to hear!

-- current odds (win and exacta, in Japanese pool, 9:30 a.m. JST) for the Japanese Derby
http://keiba.yahoo.co.jp/odds/ut/1005030410/?ninki=0

Vitoire Pisa 6/5 (2.2)
Pelusa 9/5 (2.8)

[specialweek]

There might not be too much between Pelusa and VP. Eishin Flash looks the value runner.

[tachyon]

I think that Pelusa will be an undefeated Japanese Derby winner. He was quite impressive in his last time out Aoba Sho (G2, 2400m at Tokyo), admitting that it was not a strong field. His class might have already been unquestionable as he had defeated Hiruno d'Amour, who subsequently came in second in the Satsuki Sho (G1), in the Wakaba Stakes (Listed) back in March. Lightly raced so far, with a perfect lead-up into this big event, he should now be ready to win big here.

Hiruno d'Amour is going to be my sentimental favorite. Out of a Lammtarra mare, he was bred at a small farm in Hidaka. He showed a better stretch run than the winner Victoire Pisa in the Satsuki Sho and the additional 400m might play in his favor.　

Victoir Pisa was certainly a splendid Satsuki Sho winner and has always been walking the high road to be a champion horse. However, I can't be so sure that he will like the distance here. He is a half brother to Asakusa Den'en (by Singspiel), a class miler.

My ''value horses'' for the exotics are Reve d'Orient (deep closer), Rulership (royally bred), Gestalt (steady stalker).

-- Quinella
Pelusa/ Hiruno d'Amour, Reve d'Orient, Rulership, Gestalt

-- Trifecta (two horses key, in box)
key on Pelusa & Hiruno d'Amour, with Reve d'Orient, Rulership, Victoire Pisa, Gestalt

[specialweek]

As a betting proposition the race doesn't appear to be one that will pay huge dividends with the top 3, especially the trifecta. I am looking forward to this more from a total contest involving many chances. I too am unsure about VP getting the trip and Pelusa's Aoba run was impressive but the rest were average performers.
The value remains with Eishin Flash. Has had to work hard from wide gates and now draws gate 1. As long as Uchida gets off the fence around 1200m point as the inside is off from there, I think EF has strong claims.
Aliseo is the unknown for me but with Williams on board he might conclude his official 1 month contract(riding HK horse next week in Yasuda as visiting jock) by opening with the Tenno Sho and closing with the Derby, as G 1 wins on his resume.
In closing, I will work around EF as banker and couple up with others but not expecting a big return.
The under card might be the ones to secure some funds. Good Luck and may they all go around safely.

[Songofthesword]

i just want them to play that music they play before american races lol

can you imagine watching mountineer race 4 and hearing a a marching band come out leading them to the gate?

but seriously that is very nice

[Songofthesword]

[quote author=specialweek link=topic=43412.msg957869#msg957869 date=1275123969]
There might not be too much between Pelusa and VP. Eishin Flash looks the value runner.
[/quote] ding ding ding we have a winner.

my god he's gorgeous too


two favs want no part of that distance

[Cesario]

Great Pick Special Week. I went with you on Flash as well $20 win. Missed out on the Exactor but what can you do, the two year old champ finally bounced back to form.

[Cantant]

1. Eishin Flash (1) 4.90 31.90
2. Rose Kingdom (8) 5.00
3. Victoire Pisa (7) 1.20

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oe-UW1Zu_lQ

[tachyon]

Great call, specialweek!!!!

I went to the track today and ended up flat broke.
I should have gone with you!

[quote author=Cantant link=topic=43412.msg958299#msg958299 date=1275205771]
1. Eishin Flash (1) 4.90 31.90
2. Rose Kingdom (8) 5.00
3. Victoire Pisa (7) 1.20

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oe-UW1Zu_lQ
[/quote]

Exacta (1-8) : 46,210 Yen (on 100 Yen)
Trifecta (1-8-7) : 152,910 Yen (on 100 Yen)

[specialweek]

Murphy's law Tachyon...............I didn't get time to back him............next week Reach the Crown but at short odds unfortunately.

[tachyon]

[quote author=specialweek link=topic=43412.msg958316#msg958316 date=1275220674]
Murphy's law Tachyon...............I didn't get time to back him............next week Reach the Crown but at short odds unfortunately.
[/quote]

Where are you going to bury your treasures, specialweek? :grin:

Reach the Crown next?
Any horse you think will win will win!!!

[Viva Pataca]

Eishin Flash's pedigree is loaded with German blood. His BM sire Platini (GER) is also the BM sire of HK Champions & Chater Cup winner Mr Medici.