"The Classic" Post Time Odds

[LarrytheK]

I expect the off odds to be much different than current sportsbooks or euro-odds...

Zenyatta................ 8-5
Blame.....................9-2
Quality Road............5-1
Lookin At Lucky........5-1
Gio Ponti.................9-1 Also Entered In Mile
Haynesfield.............10-1
Paddy O'Prado.........12-1
Fly Down.................12-1
Espoir City...............15-1
First Dude................18-1
Musket Man..............22-1
Pleasant Prince.........25-1
Etched.....................30-1
Morning Line.............35-1
Crown Of Thorns.......n/l
Dakota Phone............n/l

[Slewbopper]

Larry, if these are your odds, they look pretty close to what I would think they will be.

[MonmouthGuy]

Larry, if these are your odds, they look pretty close to what I would think they will be.

I believe that odds will be much more strung out. After Haynesfield I think most will be above 15-1.

[LarrytheK]

Larry, if these are your odds, they look pretty close to what I would think they will be.

They are and I spent lots of time on three, the Classic, Mile, Juvy..Still working on the other two..Thx for input..

[Matt Converse]

The public loves 3-year-olds who run in the TC races, therefore 'Lucky will be the second choice. Often (like Paddy O' Prady vs. Winchester) the public is let down and wonders what "went wrong", when mostly it's just them running their typical race against older, better horses. Lucky will be second choice, but it could very well be him running his best would only get him 4th.

[Matt Converse]

My guess would be:
Zenyatta 7-5
Lookin at Lucky 7-2
Haynesfield 6-1
Blame 7-1
Quality Road 7-1
Gio Ponti 12-1

[RHIOT]

I would jump
for joy at Blame at 7-1!!!!! I hope people continue to unload on Lucky, though I think the Churchill crowd will no way let Blame go off that high

[Dusty]

Hmm here are my odds:

Re: "The Classic" Post Time Odds

My guess would be:
Zenyatta 2-1
Lookin at Lucky 4-1
Haynesfield 8-1
Blame 7-1
Quality Road 6-1
Gio Ponti 15-1

Close... but I think the odds also will spread - not sure the big Z will hold the awesome fav....

[LarrytheK]

I am imagining the amount of $2 souveneir win tickets on Z will be in the 10s of thousands. People are preselling them on EBay right now. Every time a horse wins the first two legs of the Triple Crown, lots of enterprising people pre-sell the Belmont Stakes Program with a Souveneir Ticket for like $15, and every time the horse loses in the stretch i.e. Funny Cide, Silver Charm, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Big Brown....It's the kiss of death...Whomever saved a win ticket on Zenyatta during the entire streak and I doubt theres more than a few, has something worth a lot of money now, even if she loses the Classic....20 Tickets matted and hung up on the wall..The place pool on Z should be out of whack...

[Valiant-Nature]

My guess would be:
Zenyatta 7-5
Lookin at Lucky 7-2
Haynesfield 6-1
Blame 7-1
Quality Road 7-1
Gio Ponti 12-1

There isn't a chance in hell that Haynesfield goes off lower than either Blame or QR. It just isn't going to happen.

And can we assume you won't have LAL on any tickets? Most horses won't run a lifetime best race, and if he does and that only garners a 4th place, then you can't conceivably use him.

[LarrytheK]

There isn't a chance in hell that Haynesfield goes off lower than either Blame or QR. It just isn't going to happen.

And can we assume you won't have LAL on any tickets? Most horses won't run a lifetime best race, and if he does and that only garners a 4th place, then you can't conceivably use him.

I respectfully disagree...Haynesfield will be the 5th choice at best...He had a lone F trip in JCGC..There will be Quality Road fighting him around the track with Etched as well. This speed duel will cost all three. Depending on where Blame, Lucky, and Musket draw their posts will determine the winner..If you like Haynesfield you are going to get a big price...Looking at Lucky has ran on poly and won but his times were slow for par on those races..The Derby is a Line Through...So evaluating his improvement in Figs on dirt and he has been working like a complete monster..He is the real deal on dirt....He was a very late foal but I think he is heading not only to a carreer best beyer, but expect him to hit 110-117 on dirt next year..If you hook Lucky in the stretch you're going to lose....Strictly a 2 horse race Blame and Lucky and depending on the Post Draw, Musket Man could get a piece with the big finish he has.

[Songofthesword]

Overseas horses with good racing lines, always get hammered, always. Espior City imho wont' go off higher than 12 to 1 and that might be too high.

[The Tin Man]

If these horses all run in The Classic ... They will be auto tosses for me ...

Paddy O'Prado
Espoir City
Pleasant Prince
Etched
Morning Line

I may play with the rest of them ... As much as I love Crown of Thorns ... I'd probably toss him. Damn it!!

I wanted to keep my trifecta at 48 bucks just like last year's Classic trifecta ... I'm gonna construct it the exact same way(Preliminarily) ...

Were I betting it right now my TRIFECTA would be ...

Zenyatta

over

Blame, Quality Road, Lookin At Lucky, Gio Ponti, Haynesfield, Fly Down

over

Blame, Quality Road, Lookin At Lucky, Gio Ponti, Haynesfield, Fly Down, First Dude, Musket Man, Dakota Phone

Total bet - 48 Dollars.

I may do a small side win bet or two just in case Zenny gets upset ... Just to recoup my bet. I did that last year with Gio as my cover in case Zenny hadn't won.

[Songofthesword]

If these horses all run in The Classic ... They will be auto tosses for me ...

Paddy O'Prado
Espoir City
Pleasant Prince
Etched
Morning Line

I may play with the rest of them ... As much as I love Crown of Thorns ... I'd probably toss him. Damn it!!

While he wont' be on my win ticket, espoir city can scoot. I actually saw a few of his races when I stayed up, he might not win it, but he defiantly belongs. I would actually be shocked if he's not in the superfecta

Also keep in mind, over there, they actually train their horses to run this far and further, all year long. 10F is going to be a walk in the park from a distance standpoint. He should hit the superfecta board on stamina alone.

[The Tin Man]

While he wont' be on my win ticket, espoir city can scoot. I actually saw a few of his races when I stayed up, he might not win it, but he defiantly belongs. I would actually be shocked if he's not in the superfecta

Also keep in mind, over there, they actually train their horses to run this far and further, all year long. 10F is going to be a walk in the park from a distance standpoint. He should hit the superfecta board on stamina alone.

On your recommendation SOTS ... I'll look at Espoir City a little more thoroughly before I finalize tossing him. I've never really followed him. Just remember a few Japanese horses coming to Cali and getting smoked ... So it's a sort of "out of hand" dismissal ... I'll be more thorough before the actual race.

This was just a rough sketch for my current time thought process ... ;-)

I honestly think Zenny is gonna win going away ... But if she doesn't ... I wouldn't be shocked if QR pulled it off ... I think he's OK with the distance ... If he's on ... Ya never know ...

[LarrytheK]

Quality Road concerns.

No Race Tightener for 63 Days
Always decreasing Figs over 1 mile.
Pace Duel With The Toughest Field He's faced
If gets an outside post he'll be used even more early.......Will use in a Pick 4 Where I drop Goldikova for Paco Boy for value.

Haynesfield Concerns

Need The Lead Type With Way To Much Pace in Race Already
I think he will Bounce Off That Big Lone F Fig
Better Not Draw Outside Either............................Pass
9-13 Record


Blame Concerns

NONE

That 2nd place finish to Haynesfield was as impresssive a showing I've seen this year.
Must Admit I like Lookin At Lucky and Zenyatta, but he's the best horse for this race distance, can rate.
The race sets up for him and he is in my opinion the best 10F Horse..Great finishing kick..
Will go off at 4-1 to 7-1....He's my pick..Use in Pick 4..


Lookin At Lucky Concerns

Has to put up his biggest number yet to win.
Still 3 and not as good now as he'll be next year, so maybe a tad below Blames Best
You always have to be concerned at post draw time for Lookin At Lucky...
Increasing ability ON DIRT to either stalk, or stay far back and have a big closing finish.He's getting good enough to just circle the field like Zenyatta. If Blame falters theres Lucky..But he getting overbet like Z....Will use in Pick 4


Zenyatta: Concerns

I don't see her winning..No way no how...
Would have to throw up a career best number in her last race.
One of the greatest horses and racing accomplishments ever obtained. 19/19
If she wins this race...Has to be considered one of the top 5 horses to ever run in the world.
Should get HOY if she finishes in the money...Will get emotional vote. I'll use her in a Pick 4 and Drop Goldikova for Paco Boy for Value......

I like Morning Line If There Should Be A Freak $60 Longshot...He has Zito and talent....I'll use him in pick 4 with Goldikova and only a few others from the other 2 races like the two coming out of the Arc..

Musket Man should show some late pace and might get a piece...Not even critiquing the rest, chuck em out.....

[Matt Converse]

There isn't a chance in hell that Haynesfield goes off lower than either Blame or QR. It just isn't going to happen.

I hope you're right.

[arkle]

While he wont' be on my win ticket, espoir city can scoot. I actually saw a few of his races when I stayed up, he might not win it, but he defiantly belongs. I would actually be shocked if he's not in the superfecta

Also keep in mind, over there, they actually train their horses to run this far and further, all year long.

Not on dirt they don't. The longest Graded race on dirt in Japan are the G2 Tokai Stakes at 9.5f and the G3 Sirius stakes at 10f. Everything else is 7f/8f/9f.

10F is going to be a walk in the park from a distance standpoint. He should hit the superfecta board on stamina alone.

Are we talking about the same horse here? Espoir City has never run 10f in his life. He has mostly run at a mile, a few times at 9f. If there's any question mark about him it's ability to stay.
He doesn't lack for speed, that much we know.

[Matt Converse]

And can we assume you won't have LAL on any tickets? Most horses won't run a lifetime best race, and if he does and that only garners a 4th place, then you can't conceivably use him.

You know what they say about assuming.

"Lucky will be second choice, but it could very well be him running his best would only get him 4th."

"Could very well be" to me means it might happen, and it might not. He could run a lifetime top 106 and be 4th, he could run the same number and be 2nd, depending on how the rtace goes. He could run a 108-111 and actually have a shot to win. (Both Haynesfield and Quality Road could cancel each other out if the pace is fast, he gets first jump over Zenyatta and Blame and hangs on.) I would never toss Lookin at Lucky in this race. First off, I bet tri's and super's besides my pic3's and 4's, so even picking him 4th I'd play him for at least 3rd and 4th.

My pick would be Zenyatta. I think the horse most likely to beat her is Haynesfield.

[Man o' Taz]

I believe that odds will be much more strung out. After Haynesfield I think most will be above 15-1.

And I expect the odds on QR and LAL to be shorter...