Bold Ruler Handicap

[Paladin]

$100,000 Bold Ruler Handicap (gr. III, Race 9, 5:15 p.m.), 3 & Up, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Bribon (FR), J R Velazquez, 120, T A Pletcher
2. Tahitian Warrior (KY), C H Velasquez, 113, S bin Suroor
3. Wildcat Brief (KY), E Trujillo, 118, B W Perkins Jr.
4. Roaring Lion (MD), J Lezcano, 117, B N Levine
5. Jack On the Rocks (MD), R Maragh, 114, G P Gullo
6. Temecula Creek (FL), E S Prado, 116, R R Rodriguez
7. Half Metal Jacket (FL), R A Dominguez, 116, R R Rodriguez
8. Jersey Town (KY), A Garcia, 115, B Tagg

[Matt Converse]

Handicapping this race is as easy as 1-2-3.

[Jeff]

Handicapping this race is as easy as 1-2-3.

For my money, I think the 7 (Half Metal Jacket) may upset the simplicity here, Matt.

For starters, he's finished first or second 19 times in 23 tries on dirt. He's now going first time for Rudy Rodriguez, who happens to have saddled 26 winners from his last 55 first-timers.

And Bribon (1) is not helped by being on the rail. Not to mention the widespread belief that this race is a tuneup for the Cigar Mile in four weeks. If he runs like he did at the Spa, he won't be in the photo.

[raven]

Bribon and Temecula Creek in a dead heat.so that is my exacta box!

[Matt Converse]

Jeff--I agree, but 1-2-7 didn't have the same ring to it. 1-2-7-3 is my actual super pick.

[terpsichorist]

Wildcat Brief , he can sit right begind the leaders, alot of speed in the race.
Roaring Lion to hang on for second.

[Jeff]

Jeff--I agree, but 1-2-7 didn't have the same ring to it. 1-2-7-3 is my actual super pick.

Fair enough.

Unlike terpsichorist, I see some speed in here, but not as much as one might expect. I think that's another reason to be wary of Bribon.

I don't think the ML odds will hold up, but I still like Half Metal Jacket. I don't do supers, but I may use him with Tahitian Warrior and value play Jersey Town.

I will take a stab at 7-2-8 and a couple combinations thereof.

Good luck to anyone playing.

[terpsichorist]

Fair enough.

Unlike terpsichorist, I see some speed in here, but not as much as one might expect. I think that's another reason to be wary of Bribon.

I don't think the ML odds will hold up, but I still like Half Metal Jacket. I don't do supers, but I may use him with Tahitian Warrior and value play Jersey Town.

I will take a stab at 7-2-8 and a couple combinations thereof.

Good luck to anyone playing.

I just looked at the pp's , Jeff and your right probably not as much speed as I thought
Considering to mix in Tahition Warrior with my original two in exotics.
Gotta see how they look in the paddock . But probably stick with the Levine and Perkins
horses.

[dustino140]

It's a fun race in that there are a few 'name' horses that we've had the enjoyment of following for a while.

I like Bribon, I respect his talents, but I thought his last was very weak, and his consistency is deteriorating with his age. Keep in mind that this is a horse that has lost 6-of-7, against admittedly tougher opponents. He does appreciate the Belmont oval, a lot really, but wouldn't be surprised if he was defeated here.

Tahitian Warrior, is, IMO, overrated, yet talented. He was no match for Trappe Shot a few months ago, nothing to be ashamed of, and he didn't run poorly last out in defeat to Birdrun, who is a pretty talented animal when he's on. One thing I like about Tahitian Warrior, in victory and defeat, is that he's a fast horse. He runs fast races, and has tactical speed. I don't want to pick him up top, mainly because I find it peculiar that Godolphin kept him in allowance company for so long, and bypassed just about everything of substance for a 3yo sprinter/miler with him. I'm leaning toward making him my pick at the distance, but not confidently.

Wildcat Brief's last didn't really do it for me, yes he was flying late, but he was also flying late into strong fractions (stronger than he'll see here), but was never really a threat to the winner. I do think 8/1 on him is the best value you'll find in this group, but I'm not always wild about horses that appear to be 'raw' sprinters stretching an extra furlong.

Half Metal Jacket brings a lot of positive trends to the table with Rodriguez at the helm, and he ran a heck of a race last out in the Marvin, second to only Vineyard Haven. Plus he retains Dominguez and adores Belmont, so again, quite a few things going for him.

Problem I have with this race is that there simply isn't much value up top. It's tough for me to envision the winner being higher than 4/1, the place horses will probably be the majority of the faves as well, mainly because there appears to be a huge divide between the top 3 or 4 horses in here, and the bottom 3 or 4 horses in here.

Begrudgingly I'll go with this order, but not overly thrilled about the dynamic and I'm probably trying too hard to find value in a race void of it -

1. Half Metal Jacket
2. Jersey Town
3. Tahitian Warrior

[Songofthesword]

I'm not big on weight but TW is carrying 113. that's just stupid low for his talent level. I think he gets it together and pulls it out.

[Starine]

I'd like to see Tahitian Warrior step up today. He appears to have the most talent and, as SOTS pointed out, has a light impost.

[dustino140]

I'm not big on weight but TW is carrying 113. that's just stupid low for his talent level. I think he gets it together and pulls it out.

Good pickup, SOTS. I rarely look at weights, and didn't even notice the handicap some others were giving him, but I can't see why Bribon is carrying 7 more pounds than him, or why Tahitian Warrior is the low-weight in the field.

If Jersey Town does well, though, look out for Tizway in a week. I'm looking for a bit of verification on his form, because I'm really looking to bet against Crown of Thorns and Vineyard Haven.

[dustino140]

First flash of the tote and the secret is out on HMJ.

HMJ - 9/5
TW - 3/1
Bribon - 4/1
WB - 6/1

[Songofthesword]

after i saw the pp i'm going to have to go with half metal jacket. in fact i'm about to place a wager on him

[Paladin]

Going with TW

[dustino140]

Aaron Vercrussye (spl?) is all over Roaring Lion. He hits from time to time with some longshots and brings solid logic to the table.

[dustino140]

1. Bribon
2. Jersey Town
3. Half Metal Jacket

Tahitian Warrior never looked particularly excited to be running today, kind of broke sluggishly, was rushed up, was put to a ride earlier than you'd like to see, but held well to just get nosed from the trifecta.

[Songofthesword]

if ramon just goes wide and stops trying to be cute he wins that race.

[terpsichorist]

Congats to those who had Bribon !

[Jeff]

Congats to those who had Bribon !

I'll second that. He took me out by beating my three-horse box. Obviously my feeling that he wasn't in form was the wrong feeling. Nice job by Pletcher, Velazquez and Bribon.

Just to back up a bit . . . I believe Tahitian Warrior got the 7 pound-break because he has never tried, let alone won, a stakes race till today. And he's 3. As might have been expected, he didn't get the 7 pounds -- Cornelio was, I think, 3 pounds over.

Bribon was best in any event.