Musket Man has never been off the board lifetime.
How many think he can keep his streak in tack by finishing 2nd or 3rd in the BC Classic?
Musket Man has never been off the board lifetime.
How many think he can keep his streak in tack by finishing 2nd or 3rd in the BC Classic?
Casino Economy - Dollar Shock - Bag of Change
Wow, that is a very good point. Humm. He wont' get second, but I think he is a shoe in for 3rd.
I'm thinking blame - Quality Road - Musket man - Zenny Straight Super amirite?
wow that would pay like, 50 bucks lol.
Last edited by Songofthesword; 11-01-2010 at 09:12 PM.
Box them.Originally Posted by Songofthesword
Tough to say because Zenyatta, Blame, and Quality Road have never failed to hit the board either. Then add the ultra-game Lookin At Lucky, Gio Ponte, and First Dude. Then Espoir City is super consistent on dirt. Paddy also has experience on that track.
I personally think MM finishes anywhere between 3rd - 6th. It is going to be a tough race for everybody whether it is their final race or not. You can go 8-9 deep in the trifecta. This might have a smaller field than the Ky Derby, but the field is filled with quality and it will be just as hard to hit some of the exotics.
"The thing about musket man is though, i'm 100% convinced, he will run how fast or how slow he needs to, to come in 3rd place.
If it takes a 107, than that's what he is going to run. If he can get by with a 90, that's what he is going to run. He's the zenyatta of 3rd place.
So he is a distant relative to Youmzain.
It's very tough to go against him being in the trifecta with that 100% staring you in the face, but it will be very tough to back him too. Many of his 2nd and 3rd place finishes would only be good enough for 5th or 6th in this race. There are many more top level horses above him this time. Still, his consistency makes him a value longshot to consider. He'll have much higher odds than Blame, Zenyatta, Haynesfield, Quality Road, and Lookin at Lucky. If a couple of those either tire or don't run their best, then he might pull off 3rd or 4th. I'd play him more in the super than in the tri.
That would pay similar to the Curlin-Hard Spun-Awesome Gem- Street Sense super ($2,400)
I've been a MM fan but I think his streak come to an end here. Don't think he's a 10 F horse to begin with plus the quality of horses he's going to face. I'm playing that he finishes off the board.
I wish he was in the Dirt Mile, I think he had a very good chance to win there. I know many people complain that the Dirt Mile takes away from the classic, but I have yet to see a horse that should be in the classic in the Dirt Mile, only horses that should be in the Dirt Mile not the Classic. I remember a few weeks ago everyone was talking about how good the Dirt Mile might one of the toughest races, but of course now some of those horses are not running in it and once again it looks average. I couldn't even tell you who has won it in the past.
Like the horse. Thought he would win the Monmouth Cup.
I don't know why, but I don't think he is going to get the best trip this time.
Thus, just like Curlin in the Classic at Santa Anita -- for the first time he will finish off the board.
"...and God took a handful of Southerly wind, blew his breath over it, and created the horse." - Bedouin Legend
PLEASE SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL HORSE RESCUE OR OLD FRIENDS KY OR NY - AND GIVE THE GIFT OF LIFE.
I see you guys want Zenyatta as a winner, and your very wrong, Musket Man can win the race, like Lookin at Lucky, I've seen Zenyatta a little over weight, I don't want to mistake myself but Zenyatta will be the biggest loser on Bc....
My concept is, one of these two will win..Lookin at Lucky or Musket Man.
Thanks for the imput everyone.
Of the 4 horses that have never been off the board, something gots to give, only 3 spots, LOL. and of those 4 I think MM has the toughest task ahead of him.
How about Etched? He has never been 2nd or 3rd just first 7 out of 9 times. Lightly raced. I'm pretty sure he won't win but does anybody think he can get his first 2nd or 3rd?
Casino Economy - Dollar Shock - Bag of Change
etched just can't run this far
Maybe we get a dead heat or two and four or five horses hit the board.
Id love to see Musket Man hit the board, and I do think he can. I dont think Zenyatta wins, and wont be surprised if she's not top 3. The bottom line for all of them will be the mile and a quarter.
I respect him and I think he has a good chance to hit the board. I think he's a decent play underneath because I think his odds will represent value compared to his chances of running second or third.
I'm all for QR, and to tell you the truth I'm not sure Z will like the dirt with this competition. 10 gruelling furlongs with the best horses in the country should break the perfect streak. As for Musket Man...off the board. This is a Blame & QR showdown like in the Whitney. Give Z the show for sure though.
GO QR GO!!
Not for me. He's not a ten furlong horse.
I'm not planning on making that bet but I would consider First Dude, Fly Down or Haynesfield to hit the board there before Musket Man.
There is one other longshot I am starting to realize might hit the board - Etched. Watching his recent win over MM makes me start to believe that the 3YOs may still not be on the level of some of these lesser known older males. But I do like Fly Down and even First Dude for a price. Fly Down owns a win at CD, so watch out if he sneaks in the tri. He was only two lengths behind Blame last time.
With only three slots and about 8-10 horses that can hit the board, you end up tossing some good horses.
Trifecta
5,8/5,8/1,4,6,7,10,12
5,8/1,4,6,7,10,12/5,8
Likely Quality Road or Lookin At Lucky won't hit the board among the top 4 favs. The race is basically this. Zenyatta as chalk and sentimental fav. Then the other top three colts at the realm of 5-1. Then everyone else is double digits and up to you which one to add for value underneath. Last year, three of my top picks went 1-2-3. Gio (first pick) went 2nd, Twice Over (second pick) went 3rd, and Zenyatta (third pick) went 1st. I actually threw out that overhyped horse Rip Van Winkle and I have a feeling I may throwout Quality Road today as well. The rail could be dead by that point and too many horses will be gunning for him or forcing him to go faster. Immediate horses outside of him like Haynesfield, Paddy O' Prado, and First Dude all have early speed. The Dude is hard to put away and the only horse who can match Zen on pure size. QR is the sitting duck in the pond. If this was 9F, I would be all up on QR. If he matches his Donn performance, every horse would be playing for 2nd place. But I don't see that. QR already peaked and I don't see him ever matching that performance ever again for his final hurrah. He will run more to his Whitney/Woodward form. Peaks and valleys. With Zen, I still believe she can run much better than any of her previous races this year. Even if she doesn't win, I can still see her hit the board like what happened with Blind Luck finishing 2nd yesterday.
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