For years now I have used statistical profiles as a way to handicap the Breeders' Cup. I've called this project the 20-20.
Profiling horses for specific races is not always effective and the main reason is because in any given race nearly all of the horses are entered with different goals. Some are coming back from a layoff. Some are at the end of their form cycle. Some are being raised in class, others dropped in class. A specific race may have been the target of a particular horse while another might be using it as a prep. With so many different types of intentions from the connections it is impossible to build a successful profile. However the Breeders Cup doesn’t have those same variables. All horses who enter it are pointed specifically for it. No one uses it as a prep and it is almost never an after thought. Everyone comes up to the race in the manner that they feel gives them the best chance for success. Consequently we are able to identify and isolate those patterns and combine them into a profile.
None of the factors included are jinx or myth. There is no quantifiable reason why a certain horse would not be able to win a Breeders Cup race simply because he won a certain “jinxed” prep race, or because his name starts with a certain letter. Every single factor must be aimed at identifying six key ingredients to winning: Speed, Fitness, Current Form, Class, Experience and Suitability to the conditions.
The factors for each Breeders Cup race are unique to that race. As you might expect one requires different qualifications from a possible Breeders Cup Turf winner than one would a Juvenile winner. However some of the factors do overlap.
Most handicappers will tell you that value is the only way to have long term success. But the Profile of a Winner does not seek to identify value. It seeks to identify the winner. Having the winner in every race is actually your best chance for success. The trick is getting the winner. Most people consider a 30% win rate to be good, at that percentage one still needs to aid of value to be profitable, however this system identifies winners are more than twice that percentage. The starting price has nothing to do with the winners profiles because you don’t need to look for value when you are successful that often.
Anyway I have run through the PP's and come up with the horses that fit the profiles for their respective BC races this year and they are listed below.
Tell a Kelly
Hot Cha Cha
Havre de Grace
Life At Ten
Atta Boy Roy
18 horses from 8 races as there are no profiles available for any of the new BC races. It will be interesting to see how they do this year.