One Eclipse vote for trainer Juan Carlos Guerrero

[Moonglow756]

National Turf Writers Association member Dick Jerardi, of the Philadelphia Daily News, cast his Eclipse vote for 2010's top trainer for Juan Carlos Guerrero, who is based at Parx. Guerrero had a high win percentage during the year, but did not win the training title (he lost to Phil Aristone), nor did he win any graded stakes races. Jerardi (who is the co-host of the Parx-based TV show "Let's Go Racing") voted for Guerrero over Pletcher, Baffert, Shirreffs, Hollendorfer, etc.

[pokeyman]

I wonder if Juan is a clean trainer? I don't know him. But, maybe, Jerardi voted for the one trainer that races honest and clean. Maybe Guerrero has never had a drug violation and manages to win at a high rate with lesser quality horses simply by being a good horseman.

Of course, if the guy has had tons of drug violations than there goes that argument!

But, to an ethical, old school person that vote would make sense if the other information fell into place. But, I am just speculating.....

I certainly do not think a guy like Pletcher who gets violation after violation and risked the life of a horse and jockey by running them in the BC should be held up by our industry as "the best". I don't care about his win percentage.

I think there should be a new rule for trainers that in oder to be a finalist for Trainer of the Year you can have zero drug violations or positive investigated incidents (aka Life is Ten). If Clement can manage a huge stable and never have a positive test than why can't the others?

[GinTalking]

That's the same kind of logic that had a writer from the Mid-Atlantic, who covers Charles Town quite often, to vote for George Yetsook one year.

I think you're always going to get that unfortunately any time you are 'voting' on something. The rest of their ballots may be right on target, but it's their way of saying, "hey look here ... this horse/jockey/trainer is doing a pretty good job with what they have available to them so this is my way of recognizing them." I can only hope that was his intent.

Fortunately, one or two votes like that probably don't have much effect on the overall outcome ... but still, it would be nice if every voter could make a solid case why they voted the way they did. Even if we disagree with it, you listen to their argument and think, 'okay, I understand why they did that and if they feel that way, fine'.

It is the voters who don't include a horse like Lookin At Lucky as one of his (or in this case, her) top three choices that make you really wonder why they have a vote at all.

[Miss Woodford]

That's the same kind of logic that had a writer from the Mid-Atlantic, who covers Charles Town quite often, to vote for George Yetsook one year.

Honestly, he did one heck of a training job with Confucius Say.

[Rick1323]

Jerardi should lose his vote. That kind of vote makes a mockery of the entire voting process

[second_glance]

Jerardi should lose his vote. That kind of vote makes a mockery of the entire voting process

Oh, come on. Dick's one of the better turf writers remaining. He knows racing, and he knows how the Eclipse process works. I'm sure there was intent behind this, and in fact, I think he's done this before to "honor" a local or regional trainer.

[PJMIII]

Jerardi should lose his vote. That kind of vote makes a mockery of the entire voting process

This guy is one of the best writers covering the sport today. So he gave a little love to a local trainer. Who did that hurt?

[Hermes]

Jerardi voted for Z, so it's all good.
I mean, everyone knew Todd would win. How many of these does he need?

[Rick1323]

This guy is one of the best writers covering the sport today. So he gave a little love to a local trainer. Who did that hurt?

He is a good writer, but he is a lousy Eclipse voter. Is this Trainer worthy of a national vote for Trainer? It is a embarassment to the entire voting process. If he can't treat the process with more respect, he should lose the vote entirely. It is not a yearly opportunity to nominate friends who give you track tips.

[Horse's Rear]

I wonder if Juan is a clean trainer? I don't know him.

I don't know him, either; but I wonder the same thing for the opposite reason.

Of course, that is why Jerardi's choice makes a lot of sense. Whatever you care about, if you want to use the usual measures of success, it is easy to say that Guerrero was far more successful than any other trainer in North America in 2010.

Here's one way to look at that: he was one of only 104 trainers to win with 40% or more of his starters. Of those 104, 90 started 10 or fewer horses; of the remaining 13, only THREE started more than 26 (an average of one starter every two weeks):

Luis Roberto won 26 of 64 starts (41%) and earned a little more than $250K, an EPS average of about $4,000;
John C. Carlisle won 35 of 88 (40%) and earned a little over $420K, an EPS average of about $4,700;
Guerrero won 115 of 290 (40%), earning more than $2.5M, an EPS average of more than $8,000.

That's nearly twice as many winners as his top two competitors combined, and close to twice their EPS average.

He tied John Sadler for 31st in the country in total races won, even though Sadler sent out almost twice as many starters (540 to 290).

Steve Asmussen was the runaway winner nationally in total races won (506 to Jamie Ness's second place total of 291), but Guerrero's EPS average easily surpasses Asmussen's which was below $7,000.

He ranked 51st nationally in money won, with his $2.5M total checking in just three spots behind perennial fan favorite Jonathan Sheppard; and again his EPS average outperformed that competitor, since Sheppard only won with 17% of his starters. Four spots BELOW Guerrero, with only 16% winners and less than $2.4M in earnings and an average EPS of just about $9,000 was perennial fan favorite, Shug McGaughey. Of the fifty trainers in North America who banked more in earnings last year, the closest anyone came to his 40% win clip was Tony Dutrow's 29% rate that led him into the nation's top ten in money-winning trainers.

By the usual measures of accomplishments, Guerrero earned his vote.

[pokeyman]

Very nice research, Horse's Rear. Thank you for taking the time to post.....

[GinTalking]

Honestly, he did one heck of a training job with Confucius Say.

Well, that's why he got that vote. The same person voted for Outcashem too. Nah, no bias there. ;-)

In the overall scheme of things, one or two stray votes doesn't hurt anything, but imagine if every voter decided they were going to do the same thing. You could end up with a giant mess.

[Horse's Rear]

I don't see how.

[Rick1323]

I was wondering what his stats were, so thanks, HR. He may not be a household name of top stakes horses, but it sounds as though a case could be made for him.

I can make a case for anyone who gives me a few winners........

[Moonglow756]

Does anybody know if they've developed a method to find out whether a sore horse has been the recipient of shock-wave therapy?

[Deputy Barrack]

I wonder if Juan is a clean trainer? I don't know him. But, maybe, Jerardi voted for the one trainer that races honest and clean. Maybe Guerrero has never had a drug violation and manages to win at a high rate with lesser quality horses simply by being a good horseman.

Of course, if the guy has had tons of drug violations than there goes that argument!

But, to an ethical, old school person that vote would make sense if the other information fell into place. But, I am just speculating.....

I certainly do not think a guy like Pletcher who gets violation after violation and risked the life of a horse and jockey by running them in the BC should be held up by our industry as "the best". I don't care about his win percentage.

I think there should be a new rule for trainers that in oder to be a finalist for Trainer of the Year you can have zero drug violations or positive investigated incidents (aka Life is Ten). If Clement can manage a huge stable and never have a positive test than why can't the others?

I believe Mr.Guerrero has had positive test come back on him as has a lot of trainers that run at Philly Park.I know that the state of Penn. has had a huge amount of positves come back in the last 2 months,as they have step up to a zero tolerance stance.

I have known of Mr. Guerrero for some time now and his horses where throw out horses a lot from a handicapping stand point. It seems from his career stats, for the 1st ten years he was between about 10-15% winning trainer.The next 8 years hovered around 20-23 %,and that seems somewhat normal to me.

Now from 2009 to 2010 this guys %'s jump double digits in winning and top 3.That is just not normal unless you are doing something that either no one else knows about or that others aren't willing to do.Win %'s don't jump from 20 to 40 by a guy just happening to figure it all out all of a sudden.Cause if he was truly that good he would have showed it before now after being in the business for 20 years.

I guess Jerardi voted for him cause he is a hometown guy for Jerardi,maybe Jerardi really thinks this guy is that good but i'm just saying that drastic jumps from trainers are suspect.Never been a fan of Jerardi so his vote really doesn't surprise me.

Jeradi was just eatin' on some home cooking that day cause as well he voted for Kendrick Carmouche for 3rd place voting in the jockey standings.No hate on Kendrick as he is one of my personal friends and have been to family function of his and he has been to mine as well, but statistically KC'S numbers all be them very,very good they do not stack up against Gomez for eclipse voting,IMO.

[Moonglow756]

Many trainers go through spurts, or through a particular meet, hitting at a very high win percentage. But it is very unusual to have a trainer, over nearly a two-year period at a year-round racetrack, maintain such a very high win percentage. Is it luck? Skill? Talented horses?

I just took a gander at the current Parx trainer standings. Guerrero has won with 13 of the 25 horses he saddled thus far in 2011, for a 52 percent strike rate.