Risen Star Stakes (G2), 8.5F, $300,000, 2/19/11, Fair Grounds

[second_glance]

Fair Grounds - February 19, 2011

Race 10 - 4:46 PM Exacta / Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12)

STAKES
Risen Star S. (Grade II)

Purse $300,000. For Three Year Olds. By subscription of $300 each (Louisiana Derby early bird nominees automatically subscribed); $1,750 to enter; $1,250 additional to start. Supplemental nominations of $5,000 will be accepted at time of entry which shall include all fees. $300,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 4% to fourth, 2% to fifth and 1% to sixth through ninth. Weight: 122 Lbs. Non-winners of a grade I or II stakes allowed, 2lbs, a sweepstakes at a mile or over, allowed, 4lbs, $27,000 twice at a mile or over, allowed, 6Lbs. (Maiden and claiming races not considered in estimating allowances). Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This Stake will be limited to 14 starters. Preference to horses according to highest lifetime earnings excluding restricted races at the time of passing entry box. Different owners have equal draw according to earnings. Failure to draw into the race will cancel all fees. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. Closed Saturday, February 5, 2011, with 103 nominations. One And One Sixteenth Miles.
PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Rogue Romance (KY) 3/C L J R Leparoux 120 K G McPeek
2 Liondrive (LA) 3/C L C Sutherland 116 T A Ice
3 Decisive Moment (FL) 3/C L K D Clark 120 J D Arias
4 Pants On Fire (KY) 3/C L J Bravo 116 K J Breen
5 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 3/C L E Coa 116 K Ritvo
6 Machen (KY) 3/C L J Theriot 116 N J Howard
7 Santiva (KY) 3/C L M E Smith 122 E Kenneally
8 Action Ready (KY) 3/C L A R Napravnik 116 W B Calhoun
9 Justin Phillip (KY) 3/C L S Bridgmohan 116 S M Asmussen
10 Sorgho (KY) 3/C L E Martin, Jr. 116 W D Bennett

[RichardGrunder]

I believe this is the weekend where we will finally see some of the major players step forward.

The Risen Star, along with the Southwest Stakes and San Vicente will prove to be major measuring sticks going forward.

There are proven horses, with loads of potential, moving forward in each of these prep races.

This is the weekend that we start to get a glimpse of what the first Saturday of May could look like!

[PONYRCR]

This race is all about Machen for me!!

[Kennedy]

Looks like an exciting race on paper. I hope we see some good performances from several of these horses.

[LarrytheK]

This race is all about Machen for me!!

The race sets up nicely for Machen....Santiva will have a wide trip, Mucho Macho Man will be taken back this time, and I don't see him at 1 1/16 doing damage on this track. Rogue Romance must sit chilly on the rail and swing out in the stretch..

Machen
Rogue Romance

Ice Cold!!!!!!!

[second_glance]

The race sets up nicely for Machen....Santiva will have a wide trip, Mucho Macho Man will be taken back this time, and I don't see him at 1 1/16 doing damage on this track. Rogue Romance must sit chilly on the rail and swing out in the stretch..

Machen
Rogue Romance

Ice Cold!!!!!!!

Rogue could also be taken back early to avoid getting stuck on the rail. Julien's a patient rider and doesn't have to commit with this colt early.

[Paladin]

Rogue Romance/ Decisive Moment

Machen wont be a factor

[LarrytheK]

You'll get a square price on any of the 4 big boys...

Machen................ 5/2
Santiva................ 3-1
Rogue Romance......3-1
Mucho Macho Man...5/2

[LarrytheK]

Rogue Romance/ Decisive Moment

Machen wont be a factor

How do you see it unfolding Paladin?

[LarrytheK]

I believe this is the weekend where we will finally see some of the major players step forward.

The Risen Star, along with the Southwest Stakes and San Vicente will prove to be major measuring sticks going forward.

There are proven horses, with loads of potential, moving forward in each of these prep races.

This is the weekend that we start to get a glimpse of what the first Saturday of May could look like!

Hi Richard:

Enjoy your announcing at Tampa Bay Downs..Who do you like in the Risen Star?

[RHIOT]

I want to see Machen step up and win here, his last was way better than looked, I think he's a legit horse.

[LarrytheK]

I want to see Machen step up and win here, his last was way better than looked, I think he's a legit horse.

On balance, Machen looks more like a sprinter compared to Mucho Macho Man and Rogue Romance. So I think he is at the limit of his range going 1 1/16 while Mucho Macho Man looks like a 1 1/8 + horse..Rogue Romance has a serious impost to overcome to win this race.

[drjohnh]

hoping for good things from rouge romance, i wish he wasn't right on the rail though. hopefully that won't be a problem.
also, i have to cheer for pants on fire due to his having such a fabulous name

[Matt Converse]

I don't agree on MMM, look at the dam's side I say he's a miler, and he definitely ran like one in his last race. To me, this is a pretty soft race. Competitive, but soft. Horses that haven't been very fast that we are hoping will move forward.

[LarrytheK]

I don't agree on MMM, look at the dam's side I say he's a miler, and he definitely ran like one in his last race. To me, this is a pretty soft race. Competitive, but soft. Horses that haven't been very fast that we are hoping will move forward.

Matt if he's a miler, he's not very good..His sire Macho Uno ran a decent race in the derby..

[tcw]

To me, this is a pretty soft race. Competitive, but soft. Horses that haven't been very fast that we are hoping will move forward.

Agreed - likely competitive, but soft. But, perhaps one of them will step up... given that the "Clubhouse Ride's" of today are so very few and far between, who knows when a relative newcomer may jump out and flash some talent.

[LarrytheK]

ML ODDS....Rogue Romance Favored at 3-1

Fair Grounds - February 19, 2011

Race 10 - 4:46 PM Exacta / Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12)

STAKES
Risen Star S. (Grade II)

Purse $300,000. For Three Year Olds. By subscription of $300 each (Louisiana Derby early bird nominees automatically subscribed); $1,750 to enter; $1,250 additional to start. Supplemental nominations of $5,000 will be accepted at time of entry which shall include all fees. $300,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 4% to fourth, 2% to fifth and 1% to sixth through ninth. Weight: 122 Lbs. Non-winners of a grade I or II stakes allowed, 2lbs, a sweepstakes at a mile or over, allowed, 4lbs, $27,000 twice at a mile or over, allowed, 6Lbs. (Maiden and claiming races not considered in estimating allowances). Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This Stake will be limited to 14 starters. Preference to horses according to highest lifetime earnings excluding restricted races at the time of passing entry box. Different owners have equal draw according to earnings. Failure to draw into the race will cancel all fees. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. Closed Saturday, February 5, 2011, with 103 nominations. One And One Sixteenth Miles.

MORNING LINE

PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Rogue Romance (KY) 3/C L J R Leparoux 120 K G McPeek....3-1
2 Liondrive (LA) 3/C L C Sutherland 116 T A Ice......50-1
3 Decisive Moment (FL) 3/C L K D Clark 120 J D Arias.....9-2
4 Pants On Fire (KY) 3/C L J Bravo 116 K J Breen.....6-1
5 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 3/C L E Coa 116 K Ritvo....4-1
6 Machen (KY) 3/C L J Theriot 116 N J Howard.....6-1
7 Santiva (KY) 3/C L M E Smith 122 E Kenneally....6-1
8 Action Ready (KY) 3/C L A R Napravnik 116 W B Calhoun...12-1
9 Justin Phillip (KY) 3/C L S Bridgmohan 116 S M Asmussen....8-1
10 Sorgho (KY) 3/C L E Martin, Jr. 116 W D Bennett..30-1..

[Matt Converse]

Matt if he's a miler, he's not very good..His sire Macho Uno ran a decent race in the derby..

And the other 50% of the pedigree?

[Matt Converse]

I hope someone comes out of this race as a real Derby contender, but I'm not sure that will happen. Rogue Romance and Santiva will be my top two. Machen I haven't paid too much attention to but it seems like he's slow. Mucho Macho Man is a miler, but this race is barely over a mile so he should do OK. Decisive Moment I know little about, I'm guessing he's a contender but I don't have pp's yet.

[Kennedy]

I don't agree on MMM, look at the dam's side I say he's a miler, and he definitely ran like one in his last race.

I thought he ran like a horse who was NOT a miler in his last race. All his best races have been around two turns.

For me it's difficult to look at a horse that just achieved their worst placing ever and surmise that they were at their best distance.

He may not like 10f but he sure seems to want a bit more ground than he got in the Holy Bull.

The Risen Star should be a nice proving ground for him but don't forget that Discreetly Mine won this race last year after a worse than expected performance at Gulfstream. He also proved to be a much better sprinter than router. I guess time will tell with Mucho Macho Man.