DERBY 2011: WHO CAN WIN *** WHO WILL LOSE *** By The Numbers

[LarrytheK]

DATA TO SUPPORT OPINIONS TO SOON FOLLOW


DERBY WINNER ....................................THE TOSS LIST

1.Premier Pegasus.....................................Animal Kingdom
2.Uncle Mo................................................ To Honor And Serve
3.Pants On Fire..........................................Stay Thirsty
4.The Factor............................................ ..Santiva
5.Mucho Macho Man....................................Watch Me Go
.................................................. ...............Dialed In
.................................................. ...............Shackleford
.................................................. ...............Decisive Moment
.................................................. ...............Astrology
.................................................. ...............Nehro
.................................................. ...............JPs Gusto
.................................................. ...............Soldat

THE BUBBLE LIST

MASTER OF HOUNDS:
TWICE THE APPEAL:
JAYCITO

NEW top 20 in earnings qualifiers will emerge over the next few weeks.

[Minersmarq]

anyone.

[Matt Converse]

So what by what numbers do Mucho and Pants qualify as 10f Derby winners?

[PJMIII]

So what by what numbers do Mucho and Pants qualify as 10f Derby winners?

Matt, I guess winning a race was the main criteria.

[TapitsGal]

Why are you Tossing Soldat,Dialed In,Stay Thirsty,and THAS?Dialed In certainly looked good in the FL Derby this weekend

[GeorgeWashington]

Dialed In simply can't be tossed. I didn't like him because I thought he was too slow, but he did what he did yesterday against a HUGE bias in the track.

Dialed In has a real shot if the winner only needs a 103-105 type beyer, which I think is what will win it.


Santiva is simply another that can't be tossed. Horse has a win over the track, has the pedigree to get the distance, and he is not slow. His last was pretty solid off a long layoff. He is a complete mystery going into the race because his last will be on the synthetic.

[GeorgeWashington]

So what by what numbers do Mucho and Pants qualify as 10f Derby winners?

Good question. Hard to see how Santiva is a toss too if Mucho is not.

[Horse's Rear]

His list is only "by the numbers." That means it is a personal opinion that pretends to be objective. Those kinds of lists get very popular in April.

[GeorgeWashington]

His list is only "by the numbers." That means it is a personal opinion that pretends to be objective. Those kinds of lists get very popular in April.

If you look at just raw numbers and nothing else, it is a two horse race. The Factor and Uncle Mo. Just an opinion of course, but obviously raw numbers usually don't tell the whole story. On paper it looks like those two are standouts.

[Ty88]

Dialed In simply can't be tossed. I didn't like him because I thought he was too slow, but he did what he did yesterday against a HUGE bias in the track.

Dialed In has a real shot if the winner only needs a 103-105 type beyer, which I think is what will win it.

There was no bias. Three of the four horses on the board in the first race closed. The third stalked. I watched more winners stalk or come from mid-pack than win wire-to-wire. Dialed In's closing time and his low Beyer are not what I want to see from a Derby winning closer. He is not Street Sense. He will be the wise-guy horse who finishes fourth or worse.
With Uncle Mo and The Factor running the Beyers they are running, I doubt a 105 tops (still a far cry from Dialed In's 93) will bring a horse out on top. I am thinking 110-114. Nothing yet suggests Mo will have distance problems. The Factor might, let's see if he blows after the Arkansas Derby the way he did after the Rebel.

[BARNFOUR]

If you look at just raw numbers and nothing else, it is a two horse race. The Factor and Uncle Mo. Just an opinion of course, but obviously raw numbers usually don't tell the whole story. On paper it looks like those two are standouts.

Q Chris,you always did like chalk........