The Belmont Stakes - The Test of Champions

[RSA]

What is your take on this year's crop/contenders? Y'all know who I'd be betting on. I came to the wedding and I'll be there for the funeral.

The main threats are the two with European bloodlines.

[algobbi]

Test of Champions? I don't see any champions in this field.

[Happy Endings]

Test of Champions? I don't see any champions in this field.

Whether you like it or not, one member of this crop will get the 3yo Eclipse at the end of the year, so there's at least one champion floating around out there. Rather than turning up your nose how about seeing if you can figure out who it is?

[Ty88]

Test of Champions? I don't see any champions in this field.

We don't even know who the full field is yet.

Of the known probable, I like Animal Kingdom, Master of Hounds, and Shackleford.

[Matt Converse]

Animal Kingdom has been my Belmont horse since before the Derby and he's only done better than expected leading up to it, so he's still my pick if he runs. Nehro looks very good again and has the advantage of a five-week rest. Master of Hounds would definitely be my value horse as I liked the way he finished in the Derby and how he galloped out past the wire. Shackleford of course will be tough once again if he goes, especially given most of the milers and sprinters have dropped off the Triple Crown trail.

Santiva and Brilliant Speed looked decent at the finish of the Derby and could hit the board with some improvement, but I don't see either winning. I know I'm very chalky once again, but to me, the only surprise in the Triple Crown races is that there hasn't been a surprise. Animal Kingdom was 20-1 but should have been fifth choice, he wasn't that surprising. Shackleford was 11-1 but one of the top 4 logical winners. Same goes for the runner-ups, Nehro and Animal Kingdom. And I don't think anyone is too shocked Mucho Macho Man got 3rd in the Derby or Astrology got 3rd in the Preakness.

It's very interesting now that I look back at it. In both races, the best value in the top 4 or 5 horses won. So, maybe that's the way to go in the Belmont.

[second_glance]

I know this will fall on mostly deaf ears, but . . .

Crop dusting

OK, so this is a mediocre crop of 3-year-olds, one of the slowest ever. What else is new? We hear that almost every year. One of those years we heard it was in 1987 after a stumbling Alysheba picked himself up and still ran down a weaving Bet Twice to win the Kentucky Derby in a sluggish 2:03 2/5, the slowest Derby in 13 years. Alysheba’s jockey, Chris McCarron, in defending his colt, put it best when he said, “He’s still just a kid.” When Alysheba breezed a half in :50 3/5 before the Preakness, the media all but threw him out for working so slowly. Now, most horses don’t even work between the Derby and Preakness.

Fast forward to the fall of 1987 and just about everyone is proclaiming that very same crop one of the greatest ever, with the likes of Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch, Java Moon, Lost Code, Gone West, Cryptoclearance, Afleet, and Polish Navy.

As a point of interest this year, we’re all aware that Animal Kingdom came home the second-fastest final quarter and half-mile in the history of the Derby, second only to Secretariat. Well, for good measure, he came his final three-sixteenths in the Preakness in about :18 3/5, again one of the fastest in the history of the race. And Shackleford’s :19 1/5 was one of the fastest closing fractions by a horse on the pace.

How about if we wait for these kids to grow up before putting the stamp of disapproval on them?

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse...t-follies.aspx

[Horse's Rear]

For people who like the Sheets, it might be interesting to think of this year in relation to past years.

I think that the comparison that has gotten the most play has been comparing Animal Kingdom with Giacomo, on the basis of being slow; and suggesting that like Giacomo, his 15 minutes of fame may have ended where it began.

That isn't entirely without merit. Giacomo's only strength--from a sheets perspective--coming into the race was the consistency of his line, but it was consistently too slow: 7+ 7+ 7+; in the Derby he moved forward enough to win, but only to a 5. That is the only Derby that slow since 1995; prior to 1995, such a number was pretty much the norm for Derby winners: between 1984 and 1995, eight of 12 Derby winners recorded numbers of 5 or higher.

Animal Kingdom's line was similarly consistent coming into the Derby, and even slower: 9- 9^ 9^; but he moved forward much more rapidly, jumping up in his first dirt race to a 3+. That's a big move that put him right in the normal range for Derby winners since 1995: ten of the 15 since then have been 3+ or less. The last 3+ was Street Sense who came in off a much faster line. The big move from slow to normal might have suggested a bounce was likely in the Preakness; but it wasn't a bad bounce, and while he went backward too far to bounce-and-win, he still ran faster than he had ever run before, getting a 7-.

Shackleford, on the other hand, came into the Derby off a long spacing to recover from the Florida Derby, where his 8- was a two point top. Running fourth in the Derby, he paired up, then moved forward slightly to yet another new top two weeks later when he won the Preakness, earning a 7.

Of the two lines, it would seem that Shackleford's is the more promising for forward development, but I can imagine arguments made for each as boding well for development. The year that seems to me to cry out for comparison is 1989: Sunday Silence came in that year with a pattern of 9- 9- 4^ and then went back to a 6+ while winning the Derby. I don't know how the numbers came back on that year's Preakness and Belmont, or for that matter how they went the rest of the year. But I do know that not too many people speak of what a terrible crop that was.

[RSA]

I know this will fall on mostly deaf ears, but . . .

Crop dusting

OK, so this is a mediocre crop of 3-year-olds, one of the slowest ever. What else is new? We hear that almost every year. One of those years we heard it was in 1987 after a stumbling Alysheba picked himself up and still ran down a weaving Bet Twice to win the Kentucky Derby in a sluggish 2:03 2/5, the slowest Derby in 13 years. Alysheba’s jockey, Chris McCarron, in defending his colt, put it best when he said, “He’s still just a kid.” When Alysheba breezed a half in :50 3/5 before the Preakness, the media all but threw him out for working so slowly. Now, most horses don’t even work between the Derby and Preakness.

Fast forward to the fall of 1987 and just about everyone is proclaiming that very same crop one of the greatest ever, with the likes of Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch, Java Moon, Lost Code, Gone West, Cryptoclearance, Afleet, and Polish Navy.

As a point of interest this year, we’re all aware that Animal Kingdom came home the second-fastest final quarter and half-mile in the history of the Derby, second only to Secretariat. Well, for good measure, he came his final three-sixteenths in the Preakness in about :18 3/5, again one of the fastest in the history of the race. And Shackleford’s :19 1/5 was one of the fastest closing fractions by a horse on the pace.

How about if we wait for these kids to grow up before putting the stamp of disapproval on them?

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse...t-follies.aspx

That would be so awesome if this were just a crop of late-bloomers that peak in the fall. It might even force many connections to run them deep into the ripe old age of 4.