Portland Meadows showviver

[drjohnh]

i just got a message about this...details are on the PM website.

[Ultimate Selector!]

Starts Monday, Oct.24th.


http://www.portlandmeadows.com/race-info/showvivor

[serenassong]

Wow, that one could be interesting for me, since I know next to nothing about the track and the runners there. I love a challenge!

[Ultimate Selector!]

Here's the twist to the payouts ..

This will be interesting!

5k to the Winner!
10k If the Winner makes it the whole season
25k If the Winner's picks win each day of the season


Best of Luck Players!

[daisy]

Portland is as close to impossible as you can get. WEIRD stuff happens there.

[Dusty]

Well...heck..take a SHOT! ya never know! Good luck all...Let us know how you do!

[Jumron]

Portland is as close to impossible as you can get. WEIRD stuff happens there.

I've followed PM for thirty years - it's my local track - and just when I thought I've figured it out, I seem to get a curveball thrown at me. But for the last couple of years, recent Jerry Hollendorfer shippers from CA have been as close to a sure thing at PM as you can get. BTW, PM recently updated their website; it sure is a lot nicer now.

[serenassong]

ok, all signed up!

[daisy]

Bump, starts tomorrow!

[daisy]

Hollendorfer has a 4/5 shot on the card but I'm not familiar with the horse, so I went with an Emerald in-the-money standby in a later race. Last meet Hollendorfer was in the money something like 75% so I might be kicking myself soon!

[dustino140]

Hollendorfer has a 4/5 shot on the card but I'm not familiar with the horse, so I went with an Emerald in-the-money standby in a later race. Last meet Hollendorfer was in the money something like 75% so I might be kicking myself soon!

I looked at the horse, but honestly I went a different direction for a few reasons. 1, I figure that a large portion of the people in the contest will go that direction due to her ML price and the Hollendorfer/Matias angle. You're right, they are as good as gold. So, I think it's shrewd to go against the grain a little bit. But 2, I honestly have no idea if this horse is that good or not right now. A year ago, she wins this thing for fun. She was running some pretty decent races on the lawn at Golden Gate and Santa Rosa (essentially ITM a little less than half of the time in some salty n1x turf allowances. But she was off about 11 months and came back at that level at Santa Rosa, dropped out the back of the field at the break, and trailed by open lengths throughout. Now Hollendorfer drops her in for the lowest claim price he can find, $2,500, and that seems very suspicious to me. 3, she's also not a proven dirt horse. All 3 of her wins have come on the AW, and her 2 placings came on the lawn. Her only dirt try was last out.

She's either type that will win by 5 for fun, or will struggle throughout and will never be heard from again. My handicapping gut says to stay away from her, though, even against this weak field.

I, too, went with a horse in the following race. Not sure, why, though, because it's really far too wide open for my liking. I think Wave Her On *should* hit the board in that one, so I went there, but I'm not overly confident in it. Not crazy about the mare facing boys when she's not used to doing so, but she's been consistent and drops out of a tougher race at Emerald. Or heck, now that I look at it, maybe I'll go with Form a Posse...not a huge fan of 'first time Portland Meadows,' but the last time he ran for 2500, he won for fun. I really wanted to pick Warnock in the 1st - I still might, actually - but QH's make me so nervous. So much can go amiss in 350 yards.

[serenassong]

Hollendorfer has a 4/5 shot on the card but I'm not familiar with the horse, so I went with an Emerald in-the-money standby in a later race. Last meet Hollendorfer was in the money something like 75% so I might be kicking myself soon!

This would be the obvious choice, but I'm going with the #2 in that one, Pepe Le Feu. Won last out at 1 1/8, early speed and just held on by a neck. Cut back should help, and had a good last work over the surface. All I need is for this one to hit the board, and M/L of 4/1, so bit of a value there. Gosh, I hope my selection doesn't "stink" lol.

[serenassong]

Not sure if anyone else is having a problem, but I keep logging in, it allows me to make my selection, then pops me back to the log in page.

[serenassong]

Not sure if anyone else is having a problem, but I keep logging in, it allows me to make my selection, then pops me back to the log in page.

Well, it works now, maybe everyone was making selections, lol.

[Dusty]

Well, it works now, maybe everyone was making selections, lol.

I had the same problem - went the whole way out and tried again and it worked.

[Jumron]

FWIW, I'm with Dustino on the Hollendorfer horse this time. To me this major class drop makes me think they should put a "Fire Sale" sticker on her. I'd feel better about The Town Lady's chances if they waited a bit and put her in, say 4K or 5K claiming. But yes, she could air by a dozen lengths also. I went for One Down One to Go in the 2K claiming race. She was running decently for a little more at EMD, and she's shown a definite affinity for PM, having won twice over the track. With its sandy surface, PM can throw off horses unused to it, especially when it drys out, when it can get cuppy.

[dustino140]

Well the horse I liked in the first won, Hollendorfer's 2/5 shot won...now it's my horse's turn!

[Ultimate Selector!]

Made it thru day 1 with a Win in Race 4 on the #5_The Town Lady!

[drjohnh]

Made it thru day 1 with a Win in Race 4 on the #5_The Town Lady!

i had her too

[serenassong]

Well, my horse can in third, so I'm still in!