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by Tessablue
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:47 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Kentucky Derby Top 5
Replies: 98
Views: 3035

Re: Kentucky Derby Top 5

I have a natural bad habit of "seeing" parallel's from one horse to another eventhough they have nothing to do with each other. When I watched the Wood and saw Tax go early then get nailed by Tacitus without ever giving up I immediately thought of Funny Cide. Maybe it was just the Juddmonte silks o...
by Tessablue
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:28 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2019 Kentucky Derby
Replies: 24
Views: 706

Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby

People have been raving about By My Standards and his work all day. I agree he looked good but I'm a little skeptical of the pedigree for getting 10 furlongs. Yeah, on the surface it's a terrible pedigree. However, I'm not really bothered by it both because of his prior performances, which suggest ...
by Tessablue
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2019 Kentucky Derby
Replies: 24
Views: 706

Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby

This morning's works from Churchill: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICTmEziYTSU&t=772s Thoughts: I actually thought that work from By My Standards wasn't quite as good as his last two, but that's not saying much because his last two works were utterly spectacular. He's in an exellent place right no...
by Tessablue
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Kentucky Derby Top 5
Replies: 98
Views: 3035

Re: Kentucky Derby Top 5

I'm not terribly interested in talking anyone into betting Tacitus, but I do think it's funny to think about how different the narrative would be if Eskendereya had made the race. I also don't think there are two horses further apart mentally than Tacitus and Irish War Cry. One horse I've seen get a...
by Tessablue
Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Kentucky Derby Top 5
Replies: 98
Views: 3035

Re: Kentucky Derby Top 5

Now that Smith has chosen Omaha Beach, it further solidifies him as my top pick in the Derby. Seeing him alongside Improbable as the two of them entered the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, with Ortiz pushing on Improbable while Smith sat still on Omaha Beach, it was clearly evident that Omaha Beach ...
by Tessablue
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Kentucky Derby Top 5
Replies: 98
Views: 3035

Re: Kentucky Derby Top 5

No great surprise, but good that the drama wasn't prolonged. Honestly, the more I think about the SA Derby, the more I want to just toss everyone involved. I do think Omaha Beach will really need his ride to succeed in this race. Insert a joke about Geroux running interference on the rest of the fie...
by Tessablue
Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Kentucky Derby Top 5
Replies: 98
Views: 3035

Re: Kentucky Derby Top 5

1. Roadster--he's good and getting better. 2. Omaha Beach--fast, improving and a good head. 3. Maximum Security--fast but will need to rate because he won't get that pace this time. 4. Bodexpress--the most improved horse in the race; could shock the world. 5. Owendale--bounced back and looked good ...
by Tessablue
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Kentucky Derby Top 5
Replies: 98
Views: 3035

Re: Kentucky Derby Top 5

1. Tacitus- how often do you get to bet an improving horse with a glorious pedigree who you already know can handle mental and physical adversity? How often do you get to bet that horse at around 10-1? I'd be all over this guy even if he was the favorite. 2. By My Standards- he has twice run faster ...
by Tessablue
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Arkansas Derby G1 Million Dollars
Replies: 46
Views: 1456

Re: Arkansas Derby G1 Million Dollars

Improbable actually really impressed me. First-time blinkers and he took a lot of dirt but still ended up wide and never gave up. I don't think he wants any part of 10f, but he's a nice, tough horse. I'm not falling into fallacy that closers want more distance, but he didn't really look like a hors...
by Tessablue
Sat Apr 13, 2019 10:09 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2019 Three-Year-Olds
Replies: 317
Views: 13421

Re: 2019 Three-Year-Olds

I said we'd have to see how we felt today, but I'm not sure how to feel about the Lexington. Owendale looked realy good, but from glancing at the charts it certainly looks as though wide closing moves were very good today and Twist really had to wait for his run. But I really didn't like all of the ...
by Tessablue
Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:58 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Arkansas Derby G1 Million Dollars
Replies: 46
Views: 1456

Re: Arkansas Derby G1 Million Dollars

That sustained run by the winner was very very impressive. I suspect Smith's choice will determine the Derby favorite, and I'd put money on him choosing Omaha Beach. However, the horse was climbing before Smith got him to the outside. He has the ability to give himself a perfect outside trip in the ...
by Tessablue
Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:56 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Winx
Replies: 420
Views: 55062

Re: Winx

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:54 am
Has her race been run yet tonight (US time)? I would be so grateful is someone could post a replay link.
Nope, post time is in nine minutes!
by Tessablue
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2019 Three-Year-Olds
Replies: 317
Views: 13421

Re: 2019 Three-Year-Olds

Interesting, thank you for the response! Personally I really liked his attitude of "if we don't finish well in the Lexington we don't deserve to be in the race anyways," so I suppose we'll have to see how everyone feels after tomorrow. I genuinely think has a great chance in the Derby based on his p...
by Tessablue
Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2019 Three-Year-Olds
Replies: 317
Views: 13421

Re: 2019 Three-Year-Olds

Meanwhile, the Lexington has some interesting horses. I love Anothertwistafate and think he's the obvious winner, but Sueno has a chance to back up the form of the Louisiana Derby, and Zenden was tremendous in the Tampa Bay Derby, a race which was pretty well validated last week. I want Twist in th...
by Tessablue
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2019 Three-Year-Olds
Replies: 317
Views: 13421

Re: 2019 Three-Year-Olds

Another absolutely beautiful CD work from By My Standards: https://twitter.com/KentuckyDerby/status/1116348285067898886 A very interesting couple of preps this weekend. Does Baffert regret blinkers-on after drawing the rail? It looks like the weather is going to be atrocious so perhaps sticking to t...
by Tessablue
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2019 Three-Year-Olds
Replies: 317
Views: 13421

Re: 2019 Three-Year-Olds

Something interesting I noticed today. These are the Beyer progressions of three current Derby contenders:

Horse A: 75-93-97
Horse B: 73-86-97
Horse C: 83-90-96

One is a favorite, one could still be a favorite, and one is a pretty major longshot. Who do you like?
by Tessablue
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:08 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Santa Anita 2019
Replies: 765
Views: 23140

Re: Santa Anita 2019

Yes, and this entirely fake one that they recently tried to push: https://mashable.com/2017/06/06/peta-fake-animal-abuse-video/#6dmGEpbyqiqC There's also increasing evidence that they purposefully harm ( https://www.dairycarrie.com/2014/08/12/peta-dairy-farm-video/ and https://freebeacon.com/issues/...
by Tessablue
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Santa Anita 2019
Replies: 765
Views: 23140

Re: Santa Anita 2019

PETA terrorized the family of a scientist I know. He works on nonterminal perfectly humane experiments, and they called to threaten his family every single night until they got bored and found someone else to terrorize. The organization is comprised of admited extremists, and you simply cannot barga...
by Tessablue
Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Santa Anita Derby
Replies: 35
Views: 1191

Re: Santa Anita Derby

Hey, according to this news release ( https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/20190407_KDFW_Pool_4_Recap.pdf ), Roadster is the highest-price favorite in the final future pool since... 2004! In retrospect, the fact that we have a six-way battle for favoritism, vs. all others be...
by Tessablue
Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Santa Anita Derby
Replies: 35
Views: 1191

Re: Santa Anita Derby

Hey, according to this news release ( https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/20190407_KDFW_Pool_4_Recap.pdf ), Roadster is the highest-price favorite in the final future pool since... 2004! In retrospect, the fact that we have a six-way battle for favoritism, vs. all others bei...