Southwest Stakes

Matt Converse
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Fri Feb 14, 2014 6:03 pm

On Monday: Tapiture draws rail, will face Strong Mandate, Coastline, Tanzanite Cat, Paganol, Walt, Kendall's Boy, Louies Flower, Ride On Curlin, Son of Dixie, Fire Starter and Bourbonize in a field of 12. I'm anxious to see how Tapiture does and to see if Strong Mandate is as good as most people think he is.
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Oldowan
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Fri Feb 14, 2014 7:26 pm

I like Fire Starter.
Izvestia
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Fri Feb 14, 2014 7:29 pm

I'm giving Coastline one last chance.
On paper Strong Mandate looks like he should win this, but he might need a race.
I am interested in Kendall's Boy, besides his horrible Breeders Futurity (polytrack?), he hasn't been all that bad. He's been working well. He might be limited in distance though.
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Hoist The Flag
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Sat Feb 15, 2014 11:12 am

Oaklawn Park
$300,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III, Race 9, approximate post 5:09 p.m. CST), 3YOs, 1 1/16 miles (dirt)

PP, Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Tapiture, R. Santana Jr., 119, S Asmussen
2. Coastline, S. Bridgmohan, 117, M Casse
3a. Tanzanite Cat, C. Nakatani, 122, C Autrey
4. Louies Flower, L. Quinonez, 115, W B Calhoun
5. Kendall's Boy, L. Goncalves, 115, T Amoss
6a. Paganol, N. Arroyo Jr., 115, C Autrey
7. Walt, K. Tohill, 115, C Hartman
8. Strong Mandate, J. Rosario, 117, D W Lukas
9. Ride On Curlin, C. Borel, 117, W Gowan
10. Son of Dixie, M Berry, 115, W B Calhoun
11. Fire Starter, R. Albarado, 115, S. Hobby
12. Bourbonize, R. Vazquez, K Gorder, 117
a-coupled entry
Hoist the Flag was the best horse I ever rode, by far... It wasn't Seattle Slew.
Jean Cruguet
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Ridan_Remembered
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Sat Feb 15, 2014 2:19 pm

Looks like a strong race. I'm a fan of Tiznow, so am always hoping his kids do good on the track. I never like the inside post, but hope Tapiture can overcome it. Don't know much about the others.

Fire Starter has an interesting pedigree. His dam, Miss Excitement, was by Rajab who was by Jaipur, a top horse in his day, but a name not often seen in pedigrees today.

Rajab's dam was by Princequillo out of a mare by Stymie. Stymie, nearly forgotten today, was a sensation in his day and one of the great claims of all time. Claimed for only $1500, he went on to earn nearly a million dollars when that really meant something. For awhile he was the all-time leading money earner. He was also the Champion Handicap Horse in 1945.

Miss Excitement was out of a mare by the wonderful, but tragic Exceller. So good to see his name in the pedigree of a promising 3-year-old. Although Miss Excitement's pedigree is not fashionable by today's standards, it has consistently produced stakes winners. She traces in tail female to the good broodmare, Dog Blessed. Dog Blessed was the dam of the Champion Sprinter, Decathlon, and the good stakes winner, Prince Blessed. Prince Blessed is best remembered today as the sire of Old Bob Bowers, the sire of the great John Henry.
peeptoad
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Sat Feb 15, 2014 3:09 pm

Oldowan wrote:I like Fire Starter.
I'm interested to see what he does here. Had some trouble in the last (in a few races actually), but ran on well at the end.
Senator L
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Sun Feb 16, 2014 11:57 am

I like the 5 kendals boy looks like thespeed of the speed.
Taking him over the entry and strong mandate then reversed
Good luck
No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse.
Richard Sasuly
blamethewinner
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Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:21 pm

Ridan_Remembered wrote:Looks like a strong race. I'm a fan of Tiznow, so am always hoping his kids do good on the track. I never like the inside post, but hope Tapiture can overcome it. Don't know much about the others.

Fire Starter has an interesting pedigree. His dam, Miss Excitement, was by Rajab who was by Jaipur, a top horse in his day, but a name not often seen in pedigrees today.

Rajab's dam was by Princequillo out of a mare by Stymie. Stymie, nearly forgotten today, was a sensation in his day and one of the great claims of all time. Claimed for only $1500, he went on to earn nearly a million dollars when that really meant something. For awhile he was the all-time leading money earner. He was also the Champion Handicap Horse in 1945.

Miss Excitement was out of a mare by the wonderful, but tragic Exceller. So good to see his name in the pedigree of a promising 3-year-old. Although Miss Excitement's pedigree is not fashionable by today's standards, it has consistently produced stakes winners. She traces in tail female to the good broodmare, Dog Blessed. Dog Blessed was the dam of the Champion Sprinter, Decathlon, and the good stakes winner, Prince Blessed. Prince Blessed is best remembered today as the sire of Old Bob Bowers, the sire of the great John Henry.
What does Tiznow have to do with Tapiture?
blamethewinner
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Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:31 pm

Izvestia wrote:I'm giving Coastline one last chance.
On paper Strong Mandate looks like he should win this, but he might need a race.
I am interested in Kendall's Boy, besides his horrible Breeders Futurity (polytrack?), he hasn't been all that bad. He's been working well. He might be limited in distance though.
At least Coastline is being given one more shot to join the growing list of Mark Casse high priced flops.
Izvestia
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Sun Feb 16, 2014 4:16 pm

blamethewinner wrote:
Izvestia wrote:I'm giving Coastline one last chance.
On paper Strong Mandate looks like he should win this, but he might need a race.
I am interested in Kendall's Boy, besides his horrible Breeders Futurity (polytrack?), he hasn't been all that bad. He's been working well. He might be limited in distance though.
At least Coastline is being given one more shot to join the growing list of Mark Casse high priced flops.
Oh, absolutely. Of course, if I don't include him he will win.
gravano
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Sun Feb 16, 2014 11:14 pm

Izvestia wrote:I'm giving Coastline one last chance.
On paper Strong Mandate looks like he should win this, but he might need a race.
I am interested in Kendall's Boy, besides his horrible Breeders Futurity (polytrack?), he hasn't been all that bad. He's been working well. He might be limited in distance though.
Some crazy rain came down on Keeneland for the Futurity.
I like him over Tapiture then Strong Mandate.
Matt Converse
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Sun Feb 16, 2014 11:35 pm

2-Tapiture--he's never been that fast and will have to improve to win this, but I think he will.
4-Louies Flower--has won three straight, hasn't beaten much but looks a decent fit here against these at 12-1.
11-Bourbonize--won both starts, improved Beyer from 75 to 82 stretching from 7f to a mile, should come running at the end.
1-Tanzanite Cat--has improved with every start, should be winging it and hoping to last.
8-Ride On Curlin--not sure what to make of him, showed promise in Champagne, won his 3-y-o debut sprinting, has two 90+ Beyers sprinkled in a sea of 70's Beyers.
5-Kendall's Boy--94 and 84 Beyers when sprinting, bombed at Keeneland two turn attempt, never did anything so may have been the surface. He's a big question mark, but his 3-y-o debut was promising.
7-Strong Mandate--best races were sprints, faded badly in the Champagne and faded in BC after going too fast early. Has worked well but we already know he's fast. 2-1? Pass.
3-Coastline--blew Delta, dull last, pass.
10-Fire Starter--another crazy Tapit, pass.
1a-Paganol--should pass horses late, but not enough.
6-Walt--not very fast.
9-Son of Dixie--going the wrong way
Matt Converse
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:37 am

Other notes: Kendall's Boy 5th start, at 5 different tracks; Strong Mandate's five races at 3 different tracks and varying distances all had 22 and change quarters and 45 and change halves; lots of speed here too. Louies Flower's last four works were over this track and he's worked very well. Will outside post hinder Bourbonize? With all that speed and him a closer, I don't think so.
Kennedy
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:05 am

It feels like Strong Mandate and Tapiture are the only horses in this race with legitimate claims of becoming Derby material but that doesn't make them easy winners that only makes them dangerous and probably poor value.

Strong Mandate will take most of the money and to be honest this is a race he is likely to win. He's been working great and the distance likely won't be a factor for him but I feel like Lukas likes to race his horses into shape a bit and although he's been bright in the morning I wonder if this won't be a bit of a learning experience for him. In short I think he's the one to beat but I think he's beatable and maybe best used underneath some plays with more value.

Tapiture could be a good prospect in the making but I am increasingly skeptical of the Asmussen 3yo's as derby prospects. I know he had Curlin but he neither picked him out of the sales nor began his training. In many ways he was not a typical Asmussen horse. You could say the same for Rachel Alexandra who came to Asmussen and he did a great job with her but she was not his horse from the beginning. Trainers often have certain types they just like. You see similar body types and often running styles. My concern with Asmussen is that many of his good 2yo's show some flashes at 8.5f but really struggle to go further. None of this means that Tapiture has any less a chance in the Southwest. He has been working well and seemed like a pretty hard running horse as a 2yo. But I don't like the inside post him it feels like this horse is going to be sent and he will likely have plenty of company up front. I think Tapiture like Strong Mandate is best played for the bottom part of the exotics.

The horses I like just happen to be coupled which unfortunately kills the value for both but maybe limits the losses if it doesn't work out :) The Autrey entry of Paganol and Tanzanite Cat have a huge chance in my mind. Of the two I like Paganol. He is bred to prefer routing and I was really impressed with him in his first start. He began slowly but soon got into the race with a nice sweeping move. Through the stretch he faced quite a bit of adversity with the horse on his inside leaning in to him and the horse on his outside bearing down. He managed to fight his way to the line and was maybe even edging away from the field despite the narrow margin. The figure came back modest but the horse he nosed out already came back to win a maiden and earned a 90 BSF. The horse who finished 6th that day came back to win next out with an 88. I think Paganol rates a huge chance and if he doesn't blow the break he should be able to sit a nice stalking trip instead of having to close from the back. Arroyo chose to ride him instead of his stakes winning entry mate. He's the pick.

His entry mate Tanzanite Cat is not getting as much credit as he maybe deserves for the Smarty Jones. He showed speed and patience and was clearly the best horse that day. 8.5f should be no trouble for him and I could easily see him in the mix. He's a nice solid horse for this level of race and gives the entry added appeal.

I like Bourbonize a bit as another value play but I think the post is really tough for him. With an inside draw he'd be getting a much harder look.

Paganol/Tanzanite Cat
Strong Mandate
Tapiture
Sound of Freedom
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:59 am

I like Ride on Curlin. Hopefully he shows up today.
second_glance
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 1:25 pm

Mary Rampellini @DRFRampellini 1m
#Southwest rider changes at #Oaklawn: Eurico Da Silva on No. 3, Coastline, and Terry Thompson on No. 5, Kendall's Boy. Thx @NancyUryHolthus
peeptoad
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 1:46 pm

I'm inclined to side with a horse that has a recency edge, and I agree with Kennedy that the entry looks fairly solid in this spot. I'm wondering what the pace will be like though. If all horses run true to previous efforts, then there will a good number just fading and dropping back in the lane leaving the race open for horses coming from behind. Louies Flower is actually looking pretty good on paper to me and he will probably be a good price. I might take a shot with him, Bourbonize (despite the post), the entry and/or Fire Starter . Or I might just throw a show wager on Fire Starter. If he can run in a straight line, without getting rank he might benefit from a pace meltdown late...
Sound of Freedom
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 6:57 pm

Strong Mandate opens at 4-5.
second_glance
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:12 pm

Have no idea what this means, but Asmussen put on a groom's smock and is escorting Tapiture (who can be a bit nutty).
Matt Converse
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:20 pm

Strong Mandate looks good physically, but a little wound up. Bourbonize looked great as did Louis Flower, very on his toes. Looking forward to this since I pick the favorite to finish about 5th or 6th, I don't get the love for him at all but I'm a sucker for a horse who proves me wrong. My guess is, if he does win, it won't be the type that bodes well for longer. Love his pedigree but don't like what I've seen him do on the track.
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