Southwest Stakes

Matt Converse
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Location: San Francisco

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:21 pm

Tapiture also looks very good.
Matt Converse
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Joined: Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:10 pm
Location: San Francisco

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:22 pm

Tapiture, Louies Flower, and Bourbonize are my top picks, Tanzinite Cat after that.
Matt Converse
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Location: San Francisco

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:26 pm

Tapiture wins easily! yahoo!
peeptoad
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:27 pm

Easy win... Strong Mandate probably needed one, but that was a nice run by Tapiture.
Sound of Freedom
Posts: 610
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:36 pm

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:29 pm

I think the top 2 and maybe even the 3rd, Ride On Curlin are derby bound. I still am a skeptic when it comes to this group, although Tapiture and Strong Mandate are solid horses.
Last edited by Sound of Freedom on Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
mimi6920
Posts: 504
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:39 pm

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:29 pm

Tapiture was very impressive. He just ran away with it. Strong Mandate tried, but he could never get to him. Ride on Curlin was fading, but he finished third. I don't think ROC is a Derby horse.
Izvestia
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:30 pm

gravano had the exacta.
Izvestia
Posts: 4076
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:32 pm

Sound of Freedom wrote:I think the top 2 and maybe even the 3rd, Ride On Curlin are derby bound. I still am a skeptic when it comes to this group, although Tapiture and Strong Mandate are solid horses.
Your a skeptic of every horse! What you are seeing in these Derby preps are horses that are your Derby crop. Unless someone has something hiding in their barn that nobody knows about, all of these races we are watching are what we get this year.
Somnambulist

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:33 pm

Strong Mandate looked pretty green down the lane. Or tired. Probably needed one.

Not that it was really a contest.
Sound of Freedom
Posts: 610
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:36 pm

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:34 pm

Izvestia wrote:
Sound of Freedom wrote:I think the top 2 and maybe even the 3rd, Ride On Curlin are derby bound. I still am a skeptic when it comes to this group, although Tapiture and Strong Mandate are solid horses.
Your a skeptic of every horse! What you are seeing in these Derby preps are horses that are your Derby crop. Unless someone has something hiding in their barn that nobody knows about, all of these races we are watching are what we get this year.
I am not a skeptic when it comes to Bayern, Indianapolis, Commissioner, Top Billing, Honor Code or Cairo Prince,
Izvestia
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:35 pm

Obviously, they appear to be the best (so far). The race has 20 spots in the gate.
Matt Converse
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Location: San Francisco

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:38 pm

Strong Mandate ran better than I expected, a distance second, but now has tired in all three attempts at a mile or longer. He was caught way wide early (due to the fact that broke not so alertly and that he's not very fast) and Tapiture had a perfect trip, but still not inspiring that a less than perfect trip once again makes you tire going 1 &1/16 when your goal is a 10f race. He also looked a bit green down the lane not good for a horse with his who has run in a high level races for a long time now. The rest were terrible other than of course the winner Tapiture.
Somnambulist

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:42 pm

Matt Converse wrote:Strong Mandate ran better than I expected, a distance second, but now has tired in all three attempts at a mile or longer. He was caught way wide early (due to the fact that broke not so alertly and that he's not very fast) and Tapiture had a perfect trip, but still not inspiring that a less than perfect trip once again makes you tire going 1 &1/16 when your goal is a 10f race. He also looked a bit green down the lane not good for a horse with his who has run in a high level races for a long time now. The rest were terrible other than of course the winner Tapiture.
Lukas' numbers off a layoff are pretty bad. This could easily be a horse that just needs a few and could turn out useful later in the year.

I'm not really sure how I feel about him - I never have been sold on him, and I was not particularly encouraged by his stretch run today, but he's started 6 times with today. And he's a young three year old. That's hardly a horse that's raced at high level for a long time. I wonder how much ground he actually lost.
Spahny
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:49 pm

"One of those rides" from Rosario. Just when you think he can do no wrong he does it all wrong all at once in one race.
Matt Converse
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:56 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Matt Converse wrote: I'm not really sure how I feel about him - I never have been sold on him, and I was not particularly encouraged by his stretch run today, but he's started 6 times with today. And he's a young three year old. That's hardly a horse that's raced at high level for a long time. I wonder how much ground he actually lost.
When was the Hopeful? He's run at a top level about as long as any three year old possibly could. He ran the Champagne and BC Juvy after that. That's actually a good thing, but if he's still running green now, not so good. He lost a lot of ground on the first turn, but it wasn't bad luck, it was him, he wasn't fast enough to avoid it. The far turn he was 4-5 wide but in the Derby that would be considered a great trip. He definitely lost quite a bit of ground, so a loss where he is finishing coming towards the winner would be impressive, but that's not what happened. He is now 0 for 3 going a mile or longer, and his best two races are still sprints, and he has one race left before going 10f.
Matt Converse
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:03 pm

Spahny wrote:"One of those rides" from Rosario. Just when you think he can do no wrong he does it all wrong all at once in one race.
I can fault him for some of it, but not all of it, in particular the start. I don't see it as his fault the horse wasn't alert out of the gate, or that he wasn't fast enough then to get a good position. The move up the backstretch seemed premature and that's where I'd agree and say maybe a gradual move towards the leaders would have been a better idea. Still, a race like the Derby with 20 horses is often a nightmare, this horse seems to always have a bad trip in much more friendly confines. And unlike a horse who starts running at the end to show yes I can run it was a bad trip, he tires at the end, going barely a mile.
Somnambulist

Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:05 pm

Matt Converse wrote:When was the Hopeful? He's run at a top level about as long as any three year old possibly could. He ran the Champagne and BC Juvy after that. That's actually a good thing, but if he's still running green now, not so good. He lost a lot of ground on the first turn, but it wasn't bad luck, it was him, he wasn't fast enough to avoid it. The far turn he was 4-5 wide but in the Derby that would be considered a great trip. He definitely lost quite a bit of ground, so a loss where he is finishing coming towards the winner would be impressive, but that's not what happened. He is now 0 for 3 going a mile or longer, and his best two races are still sprints, and he has one race left before going 10f.
The Hopeful was Labor Day. In the slop, if I recall correctly.

I'm not trying to make excuses for him; as I stated above he wasn't winning regardless. I was actually just curious about ground loss and hoped someone would be kind enough to post it if they come across it so I can't have to open another tab.
Sound of Freedom
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:05 pm

I will say it, Strong Mandate is overrated. How he gets on people's top derby horses is beyond me.
Matt Converse
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:07 pm

Sound of Freedom wrote:I will say it, Strong Mandate is overrated. How he gets on people's top derby horses is beyond me.
I've felt that way for a long time.
Matt Converse
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:11 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Matt Converse wrote: I'm not trying to make excuses for him; as I stated above he wasn't winning regardless. I was actually just curious about ground loss and hoped someone would be kind enough to post it if they come across it so I can't have to open another tab.
I'm sure someone will find that info soon, but it's obvious he lost a lot of ground, especially on the first turn--6 or 7 wide--although two horses were even wider than him. Turning for home he was about 4-5 wide so he once again lost ground to Tapiture, who ran exactly 1 &1 16--he stayed right on that rail all the way around.
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