Southwest Stakes

blamethewinner
Posts: 516
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:08 pm

Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:19 pm

gravano wrote:Well if there was passive riding why would you want Borel to tuck in?
Look at the trip Strong Mandate got after a slow start.
That's a flawed comparison. Borel had a golden opportunity to get over and save some ground early. He opted not to and instead went 5-6 wide around the turn during a wildly premature move. It was a terrible ride
thinair
Posts: 1732
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:43 pm

Horsebagger wrote:I will be surprised if the sheet number for Strong Mandate isn't better than Tapiture. 3-4w on both turns vs. an inside trip all the way around.

Which, of course, doesn't even take into account the slow break, the subsequent bump, and the steady in the backstretch that also cost him valuable position.
blamethewinner
Posts: 516
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:08 pm

Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:21 pm

This race is a perfect example of how it is far more important to understand how races are run than to simply focus on who wins them.
gravano
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Joined: Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:23 am

Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:51 pm

Strong Mandate had a bad trip. Part was his making, part wasn't.
I can certainly grant him some excuses, but I didn't like the erratic stretch/reaction to the urging.

It's not like Tapiture was cranked for the effort, nor did he run flawlessly, but he broke well and was able to relax. That's the type of improvement I wanted to see from him. He showed his class.

As far as ROC goes, I don't think he was gonna do better than third in this race given his early position.
Sound of Freedom
Posts: 610
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:36 pm

Tue Feb 18, 2014 5:54 pm

Love all the excuses for Strong Mandate and all the moronic posts about how to people should watch a race. Tapiture laughed at Strong Mandate who is this years overhyped horse. Horse looked like a first time starter in the stretch and all these absurd posters here saying he was the best horse in the race are absolutely clueless.

Thankfully the guys like Steve Haskin demoted Strong Mandate out of his derby dozen. Horse is a fraud.

There is nothing more laughable than the crowd here that thinks how a race is run is more important than who wins. Tell that to the guy who bet Tapiture and took all the money from the Strong Mandate backers.
Izvestia
Posts: 4045
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Tue Feb 18, 2014 7:23 pm

Sound of Freedom wrote:Love all the excuses for Strong Mandate and all the moronic posts about how to people should watch a race.
I'm just going to go ahead and say that sentence is moronic.
Matt Converse
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Tue Feb 18, 2014 7:31 pm

EquineAnne wrote:
Matt Converse wrote:2-Tapiture--he's never been that fast and will have to improve to win this, but I think he will.
You da man, Matto!
Thank you, it's nice to hear from someone with a positive attitude, I appreciate it.
Somnambulist
Posts: 7755
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Tue Feb 18, 2014 7:50 pm

Matt Converse wrote:Thank you, it's nice to hear from someone with a positive attitude, I appreciate it.
When my eyes get stuck in the back of my head from rolling them, I'm suing you for damages.

No one in this discussion was nasty or negative towards you. If all you want is discussion with people who agree with you, then fine. But that ain't ever happening here. This is how everyone learns something.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Matt Converse
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Tue Feb 18, 2014 7:54 pm

gravano wrote:Strong Mandate had a bad trip. Part was his making, part wasn't.
I can certainly grant him some excuses, but I didn't like the erratic stretch/reaction to the urging.

It's not like Tapiture was cranked for the effort, nor did he run flawlessly, but he broke well and was able to relax. That's the type of improvement I wanted to see from him. He showed his class. .
Tapiture was improving at the end of last year, but had to big time here and he came through with flying colors. His last split and enthusiastic gallop out are positives pointing to a 9f race next. Strong Mandate, not so much. He lost a ton of ground it's true, but he still didn't go 9f and he tired. You can look at this race isolated if you chose, but the fact is his next race is 9f, and he guess what--isn't guaranteed a good trip there either and judging from his body of work, he won't get one. Strong Mandate did show improvement and that is the biggest plus I saw from him, and it's a big one for a three-year-old, but I see the added distance in his next start at a minus. Face it, the fact is, if there was no Derby, this horse would be running 1 & 16 or 1 mile in his next start, while Tapiture would probably stretch out to 9f next just as a natural progression. If they meet again, at 9f, I'll take Tapiture again.
Matt Converse
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Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:12 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Matt Converse wrote:Thank you, it's nice to hear from someone with a positive attitude, I appreciate it.
When my eyes get stuck in the back of my head from rolling them, I'm suing you for damages.

No one in this discussion was nasty or negative towards you. If all you want is discussion with people who agree with you, then fine. But that ain't ever happening here. This is how everyone learns something.
And I think that goes for her post and mine as well.
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dustino140
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Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:22 pm

Admin wrote: I'm scratching my head over why you're being so hard on Tapiture and forgiving of Strong Mandate. The latter looked like a drunk sailor down the stretch. I haven't re-watched and studied the race, but my first impression wasn't that Strong Mandate ran the better race of the two.
For me, when I'm comparing two horses in any instance, I try to ask myself what would've happened if the shoe was on the other foot. For example, in this case, what if the two horses swapped trips. If Tapiture broke from an outside post and was forced wide, and if Strong Mandate broke from the rail, assuming all other things stay equal, what happens? Would Tapiture still have won? Would the result merely have been closer? Would the outcome remain unchanged? Did both horses get 'their' trip, or was one hindered? Was the hindering their own doing, or were external factors (other horses, rider error, etc.) involved. This race, for me, is a tough one. There is no doubting that Tapiture ran a winning race and Strong Mandate ran a runner-up race Monday, but to what extent was that 'winning race' aided by a perfect trip? In this instance it's tough to envision what would have happened if Strong Mandate had drawn the rail and if Tapiture been in a position where he was potentially wide throughout. However, it's nothing short of fact that Strong Mandate spotted multiple lengths to Tapiture by covering more ground around the track (how many is in the eye of the beholder, really), and I thought the ride Rosario gave could have been better. Even the wide/check aside, I didn't like when they rushed up on the backstretch as I've seen moves like that backfire much more often than not, IMO. Personally, I find the disparity in trip, along with the strengths of the conditioner, enough to say these horses really pretty much equally well yesterday. Does that mean either is a smart bet next time? Not at all. They could both be terrible bets next time, but that all depends on numerous external factors. For me, it's merely a mental note - if they start again and Tapiture is 4/5 and Strong Mandate is 5/1, I'd be looking to make a case to bet the latter. In the case of the former, next time out he's going to fall into the category of "last time was the time to have him." It's also important to keep in mind that Matt is the first person to admit that he really doesn't bet and he is purely evaluating these horses on their ability to run in the Kentucky Derby, while Thinair, myself and others are evaluating the horse as a mental note for his next start. Different approaches and everyone is looking for different things.

For me, a much better example of all of this is that Samraat vs. Uncle Sigh race a few weeks ago. I think that result, Samraat over Uncle Sigh, was completely driven by post position and if you swapped their trips, you'd have the other result.

But anyway, that's a complete digression. It's interesting to me that people take anyone's opinion about a race - and let's face it, that's all handicapping is, opinions - and feel the need to bash it or post with such bravado that they call people people morons for holding an opinion (as an aside, PLEASE, people, stop quoting Sound of Freedom. When you do, I have to read those posts).

That was long, unorganized and everyone probably knows all of it anyway.
Somnambulist
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Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:29 pm

dustino140 wrote:But anyway, that's a complete digression. It's interesting to me that people take anyone's opinion about a race - and let's face it, that's all handicapping is, opinions - and feel the need to bash it or post with such bravado that they call people people morons for holding an opinion (as an aside, PLEASE, people, stop quoting Sound of Freedom. When you do, I have to read those posts).

That was long, unorganized and everyone probably knows all of it anyway.
Your lips to God's ears. But please, frame your prayers in a way that make you seem stuck in an antiquated bath of Neanderthal doings as to properly humbly pay homage to Chris' expansive IQ.

Honestly, I think whether or not people agree, it's great to get another viewpoint bounced off each other. You and I disagree - nastily at times - but I think we're always better off for the input. A good angle comes from anywhere. I don't really know about anyone else, but I just put my opinion out there to get critiqued, although it's easy to expect some shit for it.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Sound of Freedom
Posts: 610
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:36 pm

Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:30 pm

Izvestia wrote:
Sound of Freedom wrote:Love all the excuses for Strong Mandate and all the moronic posts about how to people should watch a race.
I'm just going to go ahead and say that sentence is moronic.
While you have a PhD in moronic, the fact is that statement is dead on. Strong Mandate is your typical overhyped horse. The better horse won yesterday, and it was not close.
Sound of Freedom
Posts: 610
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:36 pm

Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:33 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
dustino140 wrote:But anyway, that's a complete digression. It's interesting to me that people take anyone's opinion about a race - and let's face it, that's all handicapping is, opinions - and feel the need to bash it or post with such bravado that they call people people morons for holding an opinion (as an aside, PLEASE, people, stop quoting Sound of Freedom. When you do, I have to read those posts).

That was long, unorganized and everyone probably knows all of it anyway.
Your lips to God's ears. But please, frame your prayers in a way that make you seem stuck in an antiquated bath of Neanderthal doings as to properly humbly pay homage to Chris' expansive IQ.

Honestly, I think whether or not people agree, it's great to get another viewpoint bounced off each other. You and I disagree - nastily at times - but I think we're always better off for the input. A good angle comes from anywhere. I don't really know about anyone else, but I just put my opinion out there to get critiqued, although it's easy to expect some shit for it.
I get the Dustino bitterness. If Dustino stopped redistributing his limited cash into my pocket via the paramutual pools he might get out of his parent's house one day. lol
Matt Converse
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Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:07 pm

dustino140 wrote:[(as an aside, PLEASE, people, stop quoting Sound of Freedom. When you do, I have to read those posts).
Only if you and others promise to stop quoting horsebagger. (Actually, not many do thankfully.) But you don't have to read the posts, once you see who is being quoted, you can just scroll past it. That's what I do.
Somnambulist
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:11 pm

Matt Converse wrote:you can just scroll past it. That's what I do.
I'm tired, lazy, and not that mature.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Sound of Freedom
Posts: 610
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:36 pm

Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:13 pm

Matt Converse wrote:
dustino140 wrote:[(as an aside, PLEASE, people, stop quoting Sound of Freedom. When you do, I have to read those posts).
Only if you and others promise to stop quoting horsebagger. (Actually, not many do thankfully.) But you don't have to read the posts, once you see who is being quoted, you can just scroll past it. That's what I do.
Dustino is an idiot. "I have to read those posts." Why does he HAVE to do anything? It is like he is a 5yr old incapable of making decisions for himself.
Matt Converse
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Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:15 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Matt Converse wrote:you can just scroll past it. That's what I do.
I'm tired, lazy, and not that mature.

Now that was funny.
Matt Converse
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Location: San Francisco

Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:06 am

A few interesting things I noticed rewatching the race. Tapiture isn't on the rail turning for home, there's no horse inside him, but he's actually in the three path, with Strong Mandate in the 5-path. Not much lost ground at all. The first turn he lost more, mostly caused by him not cornering that well. He drifts out, which also causes him to be right behind the horse he gets too close to. Turning for home, he is almost smack dab against Ride On Curlin as they start the turn, by the time they finish, he's about a path further out. Then, he drifts in towards him. Then, of course, even off by himself in a straight away he veers/drifts again.

Strong Mandate had a bad trip, but bad racing luck had little to do with it.
gravano
Posts: 1076
Joined: Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:23 am

Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:34 am

Some good banter for what seemed like a pretty unremarkable race.
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