FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH Stakes (G2)

second_glance
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:25 pm

Feb. 22, Gulfstream

1 Commissioner (KY) 3/C L J R Velazquez 116 T A Pletcher
2 We Miss Artie (ON) 3/C L J Bravo 122 T A Pletcher
3 Medal Count (KY) 3/C L J Rocco, Jr. 116 D L Romans
4 Wildcat Red (FL) 3/C L L Saez 120 J Garoffalo
5 General a Rod (KY) 3/C L J Castellano 120 M J Maker
6 Casiguapo (KY) 3/C L J Lezcano 116 M Morales
7 C. Zee (FL) 3/C L E J Zayas 116 S I Gold
8 Almost Famous (KY) 3/C L C H Borel 116 P B Byrne
9 Best Plan Yet (FL) 3/C L P Lopez 120 S I Gold
10 Our Caravan (KY) 3/C L C J Lanerie 116 M Dilger
11 Hesinfront (KY) 3/C L A Jaen 116 D L Romans
12 Top Billing (KY) 3/C L J Rosario 116 C R McGaughey III
13 East Hall (FL) 3/G L J C Leyva 116 W A Kaplan
Sound of Freedom
Posts: 610
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:36 pm

Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:27 pm

Ouch. Not good Top Billing. Top Billing and Commissioner are better than these but the post is tough.
gravano
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:34 pm

I prefer a tough post for the touted candidates. It's a prep race, so let's see what you can do in tough conditions.
Somnambulist

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:48 pm

gravano wrote:I prefer a tough post for the touted candidates. It's a prep race, so let's see what you can do in tough conditions.
There's tough, and then just unfortunate. That's what the rail is.
thinair
Posts: 1800
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:49 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
gravano wrote:I prefer a tough post for the touted candidates. It's a prep race, so let's see what you can do in tough conditions.
There's tough, and then just unfortunate. That's what the rail is.

I'm sorry, what's wrong with drawing the rail? It feels like a perfect post for Commissioner.

He could well end up one of the most dressed up horses heading to KY....assuming he gets there.
Matt Converse
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:06 pm

I'm so looking forward to the rematch between Commissioner and Top Billing. I expect these two to be battling each other to the wire once again.
thinair
Posts: 1800
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:11 pm

Matt Converse wrote:I'm so looking forward to the rematch between Commissioner and Top Billing. I expect these two to be battling each other to the wire once again.
How much time have you spent looking at the past performances so far?
Somnambulist

Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:12 pm

thinair wrote:I'm sorry, what's wrong with drawing the rail? It feels like a perfect post for Commissioner.

He could well end up one of the most dressed up horses heading to KY....assuming he gets there.
It could be. We'll see.

I always feel better betting horses that want the lead (not that he does) or just want to lay off it to draw outside. A slow step out of the gate can cost a horse anywhere, I guess, but getting boxed in would worry me slightly in a larger field.Of course, being in a position to save ground helps.

It wouldn't really prevent me from using him. He certainty looks very formidable going in here.
Sound of Freedom
Posts: 610
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:21 pm

I will not be shocked if the allowance race on the undercard or the Davona Dale winner runs a bigger number. There are some good ones in both those races. I can see Top Billing having troubles with the post and in a large field we will see how wide Commissioner has to go. But, I still see no major threat to those two, although the 8.5f gives some a shot.



http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1572934
thinair
Posts: 1800
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:27 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
It could be. We'll see.

I always feel better betting horses that want the lead (not that he does) or just want to lay off it to draw outside. A slow step out of the gate can cost a horse anywhere, I guess, but getting boxed in would worry me slightly in a larger field.Of course, being in a position to save ground helps.

It wouldn't really prevent me from using him. He certainty looks very formidable going in here.

Given that racetrack, drawing inside is good.
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dustino140
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:30 pm

Nice race, but have to feel for those who drew outside. They practically start on the turn in the 1 1/16 races at Gulfstream.

It's an interesting race, though. None of these have really been running well against any of the best in the division. I like Commissioner and Top Billing, but I wouldn't be shocked if we haven't allowed ourselves to become a bit enamored with those ones out of allowance wins against potentially mediocre company. This is a significant step for both, based on class and field size. Neither has faced this many horses, and I wonder if Commissioner would rather go longer than this.

I may let myself lose with Almost Famous, again. He's probably going to get another nice trip and his margin of defeat last time is a little deceiving since Cairo Prince blew the doors off that field. It's a shame Wildcat Red probably won't get this distance, because he's got some talent.
Matt Converse
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:30 pm

thinair wrote:
Matt Converse wrote:I'm so looking forward to the rematch between Commissioner and Top Billing. I expect these two to be battling each other to the wire once again.
How much time have you spent looking at the past performances so far?
None. I'll see them probably on Friday, that's when I'll actually handicap the race.
Matt Converse
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Location: San Francisco

Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:33 pm

Almost Famous placed better than I picked him last time, but I don't see added distance as a plus for him.
Somnambulist

Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:33 pm

thinair wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:
It could be. We'll see.

I always feel better betting horses that want the lead (not that he does) or just want to lay off it to draw outside. A slow step out of the gate can cost a horse anywhere, I guess, but getting boxed in would worry me slightly in a larger field.Of course, being in a position to save ground helps.

It wouldn't really prevent me from using him. He certainty looks very formidable going in here.

Given that racetrack, drawing inside is good.
Absolutely. I would prefer 3 to 1, but whatever. It could end up not mattering, and I think you have to use him regardless.

Not sure what bearing it has on this race but I love that he's already won twice going longer.



I think C.Zee could benefit from the extra distance but I'm not sure he's good enough.
Matt Converse
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:35 pm

Here's how much I've handicapped it so far, I was thinking it was 1 & 18, forgot it was 1 &1/16. That doesn't help Commissioner or Top Billing.
Matt Converse
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:45 pm

OK, just checked out the Brisnet pp's--thanks Freedom--(I'm not a fan of Bris #'s, but I can see what they did and how they did it) and have to say I'll stick with Commissioner and Top Billing to battle to the wire at the end. The cutback doesn't help but they should be good enough against these. Wildcat & General will be the ones they'll have to run by late, I see them doing that. Almost Famous helped by not running further here but still don't like his chances, if Conquest Titan can run him down at this distance, these two certainly should.
sweettalk
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Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:49 pm

wasn't honor code supposed to be here?

assuming every horse runs their race, the top 2 are pretty easy.
Sound of Freedom
Posts: 610
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:36 pm

Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:54 pm

sweettalk wrote:wasn't honor code supposed to be here?

assuming every horse runs their race, the top 2 are pretty easy.
Originally, but he bruised his ankles and missed time. He just got back on worktab.
ChiLex
Posts: 46
Joined: Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:32 pm

Tue Feb 18, 2014 2:12 am

Might have to throw some money down on General a Rod if the price is right. Like the way he's coming up to the race and he picks up Castellano.
Matt Converse
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Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:13 am

General a Rod and 'Wildcat seem so even, at this distance at this track, I think it's a toss up. Down the road I'd lean towards 'Rod for the Derby with Dynaformer as dam sire, but I'm not sure either is of that level. Of course, I'm hoping this will just be the battle for hanging on to 3rd. Top Billing and Commissioner need to continue their improvement and separate themselves as the class of the field, despite the cutback. If they stall, and are just OK perhaps even in victory, that would drop their stock in my eyes.
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