Beyer Figures have jumped the shark

Admin
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:45 pm

I honestly can't believe the explanation I read from Beyer regarding the figures given to Chrome and the allowance horse who won in an identical time in the race just prior. Pace? He adjusted for pace? Shaking my head. If he wants to start some new kind of performance figures, then by all means, go for it, but after this, I honestly don't think I'll trust any Beyer figures going forward.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
Rick1323
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:55 pm

IMO there has always been a personal element to his figs. He likes some and doesn't others, and it has shown in his figs over the years.............
Everyone come home sound.....
Spahny
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 3:02 pm

Admin wrote:I honestly can't believe the explanation I read from Beyer regarding the figures given to Chrome and the allowance horse who won in an identical time in the race just prior. Pace? He adjusted for pace? Shaking my head. If he wants to start some new kind of performance figures, then by all means, go for it, but after this, I honestly don't think I'll trust any Beyer figures going forward.
This happened a few years back at Oaklawn with one of your horses... Freisan Fire? I think the allowance horse actually ran a few ticks faster 2 races earlier and got a much lower Beyer.

I don't want any part of this though. I'm out.

Oh, and one bonus question. Without looking it up, who can tell me the origin of the phrase "Jumping The Shark"?
BaroqueAgain1
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 3:20 pm

From the TV show, Happy Days, and it was a scene that involved The Fonz literally jumping a fake shark on his motorcycle? IIRC, the show was losing steam with viewers, and some ditsy writer thought this scene would bring viewers back?
So it came to be that a faltering TV show that did something that was, to put it mildly, a reach for the show and/or the characters, that scene was called "Jumping the Shark."
Admin
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 3:27 pm

Spahny wrote:
Admin wrote:I honestly can't believe the explanation I read from Beyer regarding the figures given to Chrome and the allowance horse who won in an identical time in the race just prior. Pace? He adjusted for pace? Shaking my head. If he wants to start some new kind of performance figures, then by all means, go for it, but after this, I honestly don't think I'll trust any Beyer figures going forward.
This happened a few years back at Oaklawn with one of your horses... Freisan Fire? I think the allowance horse actually ran a few ticks faster 2 races earlier and got a much lower Beyer.

I don't want any part of this though. I'm out.

Oh, and one bonus question. Without looking it up, who can tell me the origin of the phrase "Jumping The Shark"?
The next poster got it with Happy Days.

I've known of horses getting figures like this or what you describe above (though didn't know that about Friesan Fire specifically), but assumed it was for other reasons. The figure maker thinking the track was drying out or different for the two races and such. Not, though, because he's adjusting for pace of all things. It's comical.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
peeptoad
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 4:48 pm

Can you post a link to the DRF article? I was trying to find it earlier but couldn't.
thinair
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:09 pm

Yeah, trying to get the figures accurate for the people that use them is disgraceful.

People on message boards that don't bet complain about them. People that bet, either use them or are happy to play against them, as they are the single biggest factor in determining the odds. That's a fact. You might want to think about what that means.

Speed figures are a tool, a tool in the immense tool box that is handicapping. If you don't agree with a specific fig, and you are correct, this will benefit you.
Somnambulist

Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:10 pm

I did read his books and didn't think he accounted for pace, though. When did that chance? Or did I misremember?
thinair
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:14 pm

Somnambulist wrote:I did read his books and didn't think he accounted for pace, though. When did that chance? Or did I misremember?
When jockeys lost any sense of pace and started routinely, and indisciminently, strangling down their mounts. When Beyer wrote those books, somewhere aroundd the dark ages, riders were actually aggressive.

It was before you were born....in a galaxy far, far away :D
Somnambulist

Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:25 pm

So he accounted for it then too and it was reflected in the figure, or the opposite?

It would be silly to expect something to remain the same in a game that changes, and I don't think any figure out there is so inflexible that it doesn't reflect what's currently going on. It can be tricky as a fan/casual bettor to know what a figure maker routinely takes into account. I feel you know what you're getting with a Rag # a lot more, but it does take into account a lot more and is clearly laid out to read of you buy it. Not say BSFs aren't like that but it gets murky when you don't know exactly what is going through his head when making them. Hopefully that was explained well although I am suspicious it might not be.
thinair
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:46 pm

Somnambulist wrote:So he accounted for it then too and it was reflected in the figure, or the opposite?

It would be silly to expect something to remain the same in a game that changes, and I don't think any figure out there is so inflexible that it doesn't reflect what's currently going on. It can be tricky as a fan/casual bettor to know what a figure maker routinely takes into account. I feel you know what you're getting with a Rag # a lot more, but it does take into account a lot more and is clearly laid out to read of you buy it. Not say BSFs aren't like that but it gets murky when you don't know exactly what is going through his head when making them. Hopefully that was explained well although I am suspicious it might not be.
The only thing that remains the same in racing is people complaining about Beyer figs ( and TVG ) on the internet.

If you aren't evolving, especially in this game, you are falling behind.
MTO
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:32 pm

A couple years ago he did the same thing but the races were an hour or two apart. One of the races was females and the other races males...same surface (fast dirt track) and distance and same age (either 3YO or 2YO, I forgot which). The female race had a faster time yet the male winner got a much Buyer speed figure. It was a well known male horse. I really don't recall the horse or even the track but the weather was the same for both races. The trips were similar too (one of them didn't go extremely wide versus the other on the rail, etc).

I gave up on Beyer speed figures that day. IMO he might favor a famous horse every now and then and might increase the speed figure for that alone.
Rick1323
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:31 pm

Somnambulist wrote:So he accounted for it then too and it was reflected in the figure, or the opposite?

It would be silly to expect something to remain the same in a game that changes, and I don't think any figure out there is so inflexible that it doesn't reflect what's currently going on. It can be tricky as a fan/casual bettor to know what a figure maker routinely takes into account. I feel you know what you're getting with a Rag # a lot more, but it does take into account a lot more and is clearly laid out to read of you buy it. Not say BSFs aren't like that but it gets murky when you don't know exactly what is going through his head when making them. Hopefully that was explained well although I am suspicious it might not be.
He didn't need to account for it when he first began. Jocks raced what was under them. Today most horses get strangled back and jocks ride a much less aggressive style. You used to be able to pretty much develop a fig off the time and track variant.
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Tessablue
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Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:58 pm

Beyers are a wonderful tool for figuring out lower-level races and they still have plenty of functionality when it comes to day-to-day handicapping. However, I've been leery of BSFs assigned to big races/ big horses for a while now. While I'm sure that most of them are totally legit, I think the combination of public visibility and difficulty/ambiguity (the Kentucky Derby for example has essentially zero points of reference for creating a BSF and its figure is pretty much always an educated guess) leads to some personal preferences and logical leaps that can skew things a bit.

My classic example is the 2005 Whitney- I could find the link if need be, but essentially, one of the fig makers said that he regretted giving the race a 123 because "Commentator hasn't run that fast since, and Saint Liam wasn't the kind of horse who could run a 123." Meanwhile, Commentator had run a 121 in his race before the Whitney, and Saint Liam would have run around that fig in his race against Ghostzapper the year prior... except it is highly likely that the figure in that race was adjusted down to a 114 because they didn't think Saint Liam was capable of running that fast! There's an element of overthinking that I believe can lead to this sort of circular logic. But it doesn't invalidate BSFs as a tool, it's just something to consider and keep on the lookout for.

Haven't seen the explanation for this one, but it does seem odd. Anyone have a link to Beyer's statement?
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Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:27 am

thinair wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:So he accounted for it then too and it was reflected in the figure, or the opposite?

It would be silly to expect something to remain the same in a game that changes, and I don't think any figure out there is so inflexible that it doesn't reflect what's currently going on. It can be tricky as a fan/casual bettor to know what a figure maker routinely takes into account. I feel you know what you're getting with a Rag # a lot more, but it does take into account a lot more and is clearly laid out to read of you buy it. Not say BSFs aren't like that but it gets murky when you don't know exactly what is going through his head when making them. Hopefully that was explained well although I am suspicious it might not be.
The only thing that remains the same in racing is people complaining about Beyer figs ( and TVG ) on the internet.

If you aren't evolving, especially in this game, you are falling behind.
It remains the same that you defend Beyers.

His figures are supposed to be SPEED figures. A figure assigned based on the time it takes to get from the starting gate to the finish line, adjusted due to how the track is playing.

Now he's going to adjust for PACE? Seriously? This horse PRESSED the pace. He could've made the pace faster had he just run faster. Had he run faster earlier, how do we know how fast he would've finished? It's total and complete conjecture.

Just give us the number the horse earned. Leave the conjecture up to us.

As I said, if he thinks he's losing business to Ragozin, TG and others and wants to revamp to some kind of performance figure, then announce it and go that route. Interestingly, I see, though, that at least one performance figure maker assigned the allowance horse a one point better number than Chrome due to that horse traveling further.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
thinair
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Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:55 am

Admin wrote:
thinair wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:So he accounted for it then too and it was reflected in the figure, or the opposite?

It would be silly to expect something to remain the same in a game that changes, and I don't think any figure out there is so inflexible that it doesn't reflect what's currently going on. It can be tricky as a fan/casual bettor to know what a figure maker routinely takes into account. I feel you know what you're getting with a Rag # a lot more, but it does take into account a lot more and is clearly laid out to read of you buy it. Not say BSFs aren't like that but it gets murky when you don't know exactly what is going through his head when making them. Hopefully that was explained well although I am suspicious it might not be.
The only thing that remains the same in racing is people complaining about Beyer figs ( and TVG ) on the internet.

If you aren't evolving, especially in this game, you are falling behind.
It remains the same that you defend Beyers.

His figures are supposed to be SPEED figures. A figure assigned based on the time it takes to get from the starting gate to the finish line, adjusted due to how the track is playing.

Now he's going to adjust for PACE? Seriously? This horse PRESSED the pace. He could've made the pace faster had he just run faster. Had he run faster earlier, how do we know how fast he would've finished? It's total and complete conjecture.

Just give us the number the horse earned. Leave the conjecture up to us.

As I said, if he thinks he's losing business to Ragozin, TG and others and wants to revamp to some kind of performance figure, then announce it and go that route. Interestingly, I see, though, that at least one performance figure maker assigned the allowance horse a one point better number than Chrome due to that horse traveling further.
I'm not sure how explaining the obvious that all that was being done was an attempt to make the figures as accurate as possible is a "defense" but if that works for you, fine.

Regardless, the arrogance of thinking YOU dictate how ANY professional speed figure is calculated is fairly remarkable. If you don't like a figure, as I said, use it in your favor. But to think you are the arbitor of what is, or isn't, acceptable in someone else's figure calculation is pretty confusing, for lack of a better word ( it is late ).

Losing business to other figure makers? Beyer Associates have a contract with DRF. They aren't making money on a daily basis by selling a product like the examples you use. Their sole responsiblity is to make figures that THEY BELIEVE are as accurate as possible for those that use them ( a number FAR greater than those that use all the other figures combined ). This is why they sometimes use pace....and have been for MANY years. If this suddenly doesn't work for you, that's your decision, and you are certainly welcome to dismiss them, and/or use other speed figures if you prefer. That's certainly your prerogative, but to think you possess the ability to TELL them how they SHOULD be making figures is to suppose that YOU know better than they do how to create them. Well, that's pretty nervy. But, hey, whatever floats your boat.
peeptoad
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Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:29 am

Tessablue wrote:
Haven't seen the explanation for this one, but it does seem odd. Anyone have a link to Beyer's statement?
I asked on the previous page... let's see if you get a response with the link. ;) I actually can't find it on DRF, but I was looking while multi tasking at work yesterday.
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Psychotic Parakeet
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Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:56 am

He was hellbent on making Zenyatta's figures low; even when one of them was a track [stakes] record over Del Mar's surface.
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Somnambulist

Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:05 am

Psychotic Parakeet wrote:He was hellbent on making Zenyatta's figures low; even when one of them was a track [stakes] record over Del Mar's surface.
That means nothing, you know.

Thanks to Rick and TA for the explanation. I was unaware.
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Big Ten
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Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:06 am

Like how the Beyers were ridiculously high in the 1990's and now you barely see 3YOs get to 110 during preps like it used to. The article on Beyer was pretty good on Cigar Aficionado. I stopped reading into speed figures since 2010 during the whole synthetic hating fiasco. Beyers is for beginners.

It probably was a more useful tool during the 1970's before they became published. I heard Andy was making a killing with it those days. Not anymore. The secret has been out for nearly 25 years. He should've kept it a secret instead of simplifying it to laymans like us but he makes an honest living out of it.
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