2018 Preakness Stakes

Somnambulist

Mon May 21, 2018 7:25 am

This is all very silly and a lot like not understanding why your favorite song or book isn't someone else's favorite song or book.

It would be wonderful if emotions were an electrical outlet that we could turn on and off whenever we wanted to, but life doesn't work that way. Sometimes we just don't feel interested.

I'm personally getting excited about a TC attempt. I also love Faulkner and kind of like bird watching, which many people find boring. And that's ok.
Last edited by Somnambulist on Mon May 21, 2018 9:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
luvsgeldings
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Mon May 21, 2018 9:43 am

som.... you are so right - life does not work that way - and emotions are hard to get past sometimes.

but I truly sincerely wish Justify the best - he is a magnificent specimen to be enjoyed - and certainly, its a lot of fun for people to look forward to a TC attempt - Belmont day is going to be very exciting - they always have the best undercard too - it will be a wonderful day - hoping for lovely weather and as always, safe trips for all humans and horses.
luvsgeldings
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Mon May 21, 2018 9:51 am

som.... by the way, did you ever see the movie 'The Big Year'? it was about bird watching..... and I thoroughly enjoyed it - I have no idea about the accuracy of anything in the movie, but it was beautiful to see the birds and I thought it was a really good movie - my husband and I had to buy it and we have watched it several times - I never seem to find many people who have seen it - but I always recommend it - Steve Martin and Jack Black - anyway, you mentioned bird watching so I thought of it - and I can absolutely understand the enjoyment of bird watching. anything that involves being quiet and nature, is a huge plus with me.
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Ballerina
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Mon May 21, 2018 10:08 am

I'm not buying into the negativity that Justify will be beaten by a fresh horse in the Belmont. He WILL BE a fresh horse. His recovery time is phenomenal. That huge chest holds a huge heart and huge lungs, and those dinner plate size nostrils sucking in gallons of oxygen with each breath he takes is the same as having a built in turbo-charger. If he's healthy and injury free, 3 weeks is sufficient time. He's an athlete, and he's being treated like one. About damn time. Justify WILL WIN the Triple Crown. That's not wishful thinking - it's a knowing gut feeling. It happens infrequently, but when it does I go with it, and I've never been disappointed.

He is a horse like no other that has come down the pike in a really long time. Broke the Apollo Curse. Racked up three 3 digit BSF's in his first 3 races. I'm not sure, but he may be the first horse to do that. A maiden win is usually in the 80's and maybe low 90's on something spectacular. His was 104. YIKES! Won 5 races in a 2-1/2 month period with a 4th triple digit BSF. He got a 97 in the Preakness. He bested American Pharoah's time by 2-1/2 seconds on the same soup/slop track. Yet AP was awarded a 102. Head scratching here.

Take a look at the photo of him leaping - all 4 feet off the ground in a fully extended scissor position front and rear. This is tremendous athleticism. Mike never used a whip on him the last furlong of the race. He knew the horse was giving his all and that he was aware of what was coming up on him and just wasn't going to let them go by. Don't give me any of that "if the race was 100' longer, he would have lost. It wasn't, and there's no proof he would have lost. Mike would have handled the situation differently. The horse gives me goose bumps. He's just too good, and a lot of people can't accept/believe that.

I'm a fan and I refuse to be swayed by all the negativity swirling around this horse. My mind's made up.
Tessablue
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Mon May 21, 2018 10:41 am

This article discusses other horses who started their career with triple-digit beyers, he is not the first: http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-justify ... nable=true
And it's not "negativity" to question whether a horse will win a race; it's just discussion and handicapping. These are opinions about horses who run in an oval for our entertainment, it really doesn't matter whether or not other people agree. It's usually more profitable when they don't.
sweettalk wrote: so, you can hinge your happiness on baffert winning or losing the belmont, but i'm gonna be excited and have fun either way, because that's why i follow horse racing - to enjoy it.
Honestly, the person who sounds most unhappy here is you. We all watch horse racing to enjoy it, but people get enjoyment out of different things. I- and others here- simply don't enjoy it when people in the sport continually escape consequence.

Personally I'm most interested in Justify from a social perspective, because I love looking at contemporary vs. historical evaluations and I can't really remember a horse whom the racing public sort of immediately declared great and then worked backwards from there. American Pharoah, to some extent? But if you dropped another horse into the same Derby/Preakness double, would the general opinion still be as favorable? I kind of doubt it. There are certainly some fun parallels with Assault, however, given the skepticism he invoked after his neck victory in the Preakness.
peeptoad
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Mon May 21, 2018 10:43 am

Ballerina wrote:Justify WILL WIN the Triple Crown. That's not wishful thinking - it's a knowing gut feeling. It happens infrequently, but when it does I go with it, and I've never been disappointed.
I hope you are correct.
Just for fun since most of us are theorizing at this stage: if he does win the TC do you think we'll see him race again?
peeptoad
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Mon May 21, 2018 10:47 am

Tessablue wrote:This article discusses other horses who started their career with triple-digit beyers, he is not the first: http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-justify ... nable=true
Man, I forgot about Crafty CT. That brings me back to my CA days...
Somnambulist

Mon May 21, 2018 10:48 am

Tessablue wrote: Personally I'm most interested in Justify from a social perspective, because I love looking at contemporary vs. historical evaluations and I can't really remember a horse whom the racing public sort of immediately declared great and then worked backwards from there. American Pharoah, to some extent? But if you dropped another horse into the same Derby/Preakness double, would the general opinion still be as favorable? I kind of doubt it. There are certainly some fun parallels with Assault, however, given the skepticism he invoked after his neck victory in the Preakness.
Orb-mania was pretty impressive. I was a victim.

As for if he wins, I say we don't see him race again but then again I never thought we'd see AP race again either.
Tessablue
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Mon May 21, 2018 10:55 am

Somnambulist wrote: Orb-mania was pretty impressive. I was a victim.

As for if he wins, I say we don't see him race again but then again I never thought we'd see AP race again either.
Oh man, same. Apparently I didn't know what a pace meltdown was back then. I think it's a little different because Orb was "only" ~5-1 in the Derby, but we did sort of collectively lose our minds for two weeks afterwards.

I'd say there's a chance except for the Scat Daddy thing. And it would be super awkward if they kept Audible out of the Belmont and Justify later lost to him, so they'd want to avoid that. I also think Winstar is a lot less interested in adulation than Zayat, but who knows.

It might sound a bit weird, but I'm actually a bit sad to think that we'll never see Justify in a sprint again. I think he would be absolutely unstoppable at 7f and I would love to see him face Mitole.
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Ballerina
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Mon May 21, 2018 11:00 am

peeptoad wrote:
Ballerina wrote:Justify WILL WIN the Triple Crown. That's not wishful thinking - it's a knowing gut feeling. It happens infrequently, but when it does I go with it, and I've never been disappointed.
I hope you are correct.
Just for fun since most of us are theorizing at this stage: if he does win the TC do you think we'll see him race again?
I do believe Baffert will send him on the same path as AP. I hope, however, after the Belmont he just sends him to Saratoga and not back to the West Coast. Y'all know how healing the SPAHhhhhhh is. Also the Graveyard of Champions. :lol:
Somnambulist

Mon May 21, 2018 11:02 am

Tessablue wrote:
Somnambulist wrote: Orb-mania was pretty impressive. I was a victim.

As for if he wins, I say we don't see him race again but then again I never thought we'd see AP race again either.
Oh man, same. Apparently I didn't know what a pace meltdown was back then. I think it's a little different because Orb was "only" ~5-1 in the Derby, but we did sort of collectively lose our minds for two weeks afterwards.

I'd say there's a chance except for the Scat Daddy thing. And it would be super awkward if they kept Audible out of the Belmont and Justify later lost to him, so they'd want to avoid that. I also think Winstar is a lot less interested in adulation than Zayat, but who knows.

It might sound a bit weird, but I'm actually a bit sad to think that we'll never see Justify in a sprint again. I think he would be absolutely unstoppable at 7f and I would love to see him face Mitole.
Orb felt good because the connections didn't get any better. We all were going crazy over it.

I'd love to see Justify at 4. What a powerhouse he could be. Maybe we'll get lucky.
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Ballerina
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Mon May 21, 2018 11:07 am

Tessablue wrote:This article discusses other horses who started their career with triple-digit beyers, he is not the first: http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-justify ... nable=true
I can't open the article and forget my log-in info. I said I wasn't sure. Did the other horses mentioned get 4 consecutive triple digit BSF's in their first 4 races?
peeptoad
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Mon May 21, 2018 11:23 am

Somnambulist wrote: I'd love to see Justify at 4. What a powerhouse he could be. Maybe we'll get lucky.
I hope so... with his owners I wouldn't bank on it. That's partly what got me thinking about the chances of seeing him even at 3 again if he wins the TC undefeated.
Maybe we will get lucky as you say.
Tessablue
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Mon May 21, 2018 11:23 am

Somnambulist wrote: Orb felt good because the connections didn't get any better. We all were going crazy over it.

I'd love to see Justify at 4. What a powerhouse he could be. Maybe we'll get lucky.
He really did seem like The Horse of Destiny. I'm still sad he didn't get a chance to rehabilitate his reputation at 4. Justify at 4 would be incredible... hope dies last!
Ballerina wrote:
Tessablue wrote:This article discusses other horses who started their career with triple-digit beyers, he is not the first: http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-justify ... nable=true
I can't open the article and forget my log-in info. I said I wasn't sure. Did the other horses mentioned get 4 consecutive triple digit BSF's in their first 4 races?
Yes, Lost in the Fog started with ten straight and Pulpit went six-for-six, among several others. With the (unmentioned) caveat that Beyers aren't all that fit for across-year comparisons.
peeptoad
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Mon May 21, 2018 11:27 am

Tessablue wrote:
Somnambulist wrote: Orb felt good because the connections didn't get any better. We all were going crazy over it.

I'd love to see Justify at 4. What a powerhouse he could be. Maybe we'll get lucky.
He really did seem like The Horse of Destiny. I'm still sad he didn't get a chance to rehabilitate his reputation at 4. Justify at 4 would be incredible... hope dies last!
Ballerina wrote:
Tessablue wrote:This article discusses other horses who started their career with triple-digit beyers, he is not the first: http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-justify ... nable=true
I can't open the article and forget my log-in info. I said I wasn't sure. Did the other horses mentioned get 4 consecutive triple digit BSF's in their first 4 races?
Yes, Lost in the Fog started with ten straight and Pulpit went six-for-six, among several others. With the (unmentioned) caveat that Beyers aren't all that fit for across-year comparisons.
Also hard to compare from routes vs. sprints. Lite the Fuse went 15 straight though all at sprints or a mile I think. That's damned impressive nevertheless.
Spahny
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Mon May 21, 2018 11:37 am

I would agree that Orb is a decent talking point for entertaining the notion of playing against Justify. Orb won his Derby on a perfect set up then regressed in the Preakness. And it wasn't only hard core Shug lovers that thought he would bounce back and run a winner in the Belmont. People who should have known better got caught up in it. Not criticizing that, in actual fact I've been there/done that. I guess it's easier to see when you're not caught up in the "story".

Bounce backs can happen but the 3rd leg going a mile and a half is not ideal for that. I'm not on the Justify superstar band wagon but he is more talented than Orb and can make his own trip. That's not a minor point. Justify can dictate the race if Mikey so chooses. So he has every chance to prove he is the real deal. I am however still waiting for him to run a race as good as his fans tell me he is. I think his fan's best hope is to believe Mikey's story that he was sandbagging the other horses and could have opened up on them if he wanted. It might be an easier story to stomach if the margin were a bit more than 1/2 length over world beater Bravaso.

Of course it's way to early to be talking winner. At least for someone who is remotely interested in handicapping and not just rooting for the home team. I'm genuinely curious about how Magnum Moon is doing and if there's a chance he would line up. Early speed and bred to go the distance. If he learns how to run straight. It sounds like a Todd thing to do. I guess we'll see...
Tessablue
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Mon May 21, 2018 12:03 pm

Spahny wrote:I would agree that Orb is a decent talking point for entertaining the notion of playing against Justify. Orb won his Derby on a perfect set up then regressed in the Preakness. And it wasn't only hard core Shug lovers that thought he would bounce back and run a winner in the Belmont. People who should have known better got caught up in it. Not criticizing that, in actual fact I've been there/done that. I guess it's easier to see when you're not caught up in the "story".

Bounce backs can happen but the 3rd leg going a mile and a half is not ideal for that. I'm not on the Justify superstar band wagon but he is more talented than Orb and can make his own trip. That's not a minor point. Justify can dictate the race if Mikey so chooses. So he has every chance to prove he is the real deal. I am however still waiting for him to run a race as good as his fans tell me he is. I think his fan's best hope is to believe Mikey's story that he was sandbagging the other horses and could have opened up on them if he wanted. It might be an easier story to stomach if the margin were a bit more than 1/2 length over world beater Bravaso.

Of course it's way to early to be talking winner. At least for someone who is remotely interested in handicapping and not just rooting for the home team. I'm genuinely curious about how Magnum Moon is doing and if there's a chance he would line up. Early speed and bred to go the distance. If he learns how to run straight. It sounds like a Todd thing to do. I guess we'll see...
As one of those Orb/Belmont suckers, I totally agree. I thought it was interesting that Baffert, apparently unprompted, mentioned the other day that they weren't originally certain if Justify would run past 7f, and he's sure none of these horses "really" want 12f. He definitely has the ability and versatility to get away with it even if 12f is far past his best, although I think his runstyle matches Chrome's (open up on the turn and hang on) better than Pharoah's (just keep galloping). Very interested to see if we get any, shall we say, peripheral entries from Winchell or Repole to keep him company.

I haven't heard anything about Magnum Moon but would love to see him in the Belmont, meanwhile Vino Rosso seems like he was built in a lab just for this race. A grindy Pletcher/Velazquez with a moderate amount of early foot and a pedigree absolutely packed with stamina? Just wish he'd put in a work one of these days. Hofburg is also going to get a ton of press and I think it's warranted, but I'm super biased when it comes to him.
Somnambulist

Mon May 21, 2018 12:05 pm

MM is on the farm for a freshner I think.
peeptoad
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Mon May 21, 2018 12:06 pm

Spahny wrote: I'm genuinely curious about how Magnum Moon is doing and if there's a chance he would line up. Early speed and bred to go the distance. If he learns how to run straight. It sounds like a Todd thing to do. I guess we'll see...
Feel free to laugh at me, but I feel this way about Solomini.
Tessablue
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Mon May 21, 2018 12:14 pm

Somnambulist wrote:MM is on the farm for a freshner I think.
Makes sense, probably for the best. Thanks!
peeptoad wrote:
Spahny wrote: I'm genuinely curious about how Magnum Moon is doing and if there's a chance he would line up. Early speed and bred to go the distance. If he learns how to run straight. It sounds like a Todd thing to do. I guess we'll see...
Feel free to laugh at me, but I feel this way about Solomini.
Not about to disagree here, he also fits the profile. Unfortunately...
The morning after the Kentucky Derby, Baffert said Solomini, who finished 10th in the Derby for him, was possible for the Belmont. On Sunday, Baffert seemed to be leaning in another direction.

“We haven’t really figured out a game plan for him,” Baffert said. “We’re working on something. We’re not sure yet.”
http://www.drf.com/news/common-ownershi ... nable=true
These owner/trainer monopolies are already getting tiring. And Audible hasn't even been declared out yet!
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