2018 Preakness Stakes

stark
Posts: 5354
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Tue May 22, 2018 10:27 am

stark wrote:With dirt horses returning on two weeks rest, Chad Brown is still 0 for the past 5 years.
When will be the next time we see Good Magic.....August?
Brown said Good Magic would be pointed to either the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell at Monmouth on July 29 or the Grade 2, $600,000 Jim Dandy at Saratoga on July 28 as a stepping-stone to the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers at Saratoga on Aug. 25.

Since Good Magic has already run well at Saratoga – finishing second in his career debut there last summer – and doesn’t need to prep there for the Travers, “I’d lean towards the Haskell,” Brown said.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
Posts: 4016
Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm

Tue May 22, 2018 11:48 am

peeptoad wrote: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/h ... /35157347/
Now all eyes are on Justify, who might have one major factor in his favor. His owners and Baffert have connections to Audible, My Boy Jack and Solomini, who ultimately might not be entered in the Belmont because they could threaten Justify's chances of finishing off the Triple Crown.
I hope all enter and Justify beats them all... if he gets off "easy" and wins the TC there will forever be an asterisk in my mind, although this type of thing has likely happened in the past.


incidentally (and unrelated to what I just posted): the Preakness TimeformUS fig came back stronger than the BSF (if one attempts to compare them, which is not really optimal), mainly because the BSF does not account for pace as strongly as TFUS. From what I read, converting the TFUS fig to BSF would give J something in the 105-108 area, if one accounts for the protracted duel he was in with Good Magic. That's just another opinion on his performance, but possibly something to keep in mind going forward.
Yeah, I think his TF numbers have been pretty consistently the strongest of his figures for a while now. I know the figure maker is confident about this one, so it's worth keeping in mind. In addition, his Bris came back as a 98 and his Ragozin is predicted to be a 7, both of which I believe are pretty major regressions. Not sure about Thorograph.

I'm not expecting them to keep Audible in, but they absolutely should. As far as direct historical comparisons go, none immediately come to mind but it would be a lot of fun to investigate. One case study that has always interested me is Citation vs. Coaltown in the 1948 Derby. Coaltown took a long lead, finished second to Citation, then to my memory he never faced Citation again, stuck to sprints as a 3yo, then only truly came to prominence in 1949 when Citation was injured. My grandfather always swore up and down that Coaltown, despite possibly being Citation's equal, would never have been allowed to win the Derby and was never really asked in the race. Was he right? Check out the video and judge for yourself! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ku1jG-sdNFE
peeptoad
Posts: 2846
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Tue May 22, 2018 12:06 pm

stark wrote:
Since Good Magic has already run well at Saratoga – finishing second in his career debut there last summer – and doesn’t need to prep there for the Travers, “I’d lean towards the Haskell,” Brown said.
The real reason is because Sporting Chance is also targeting the Dandy and he doesn't want GM getting pummeled. ;)
Spahny
Posts: 1037
Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:02 pm

Tue May 22, 2018 12:19 pm

By any measurable standard Justify regressed his last 2.

But there is a possibility that Justify actually does not like muddy tracks and that is what we are seeing. He might be so superior that he won on them anyway and if he does get a fast dry surface to run on at Belmont he will run off and hide. To some extent that is conjecture but not entirely. His best races have come on fast tracks. My problem with that is that I believe closers were terribly hampered by the track conditions at the Derby and Preakness. So Justify did also benefit from the conditions.

At this point I still can't wait to take a shot against him. But anything I bet to win will probably bet to place too. And don't think for a second I won't applaud him if Justify draws off down the stretch. If I have money on the 2nd place finisher then even better. A perfect storm.

It's probably really stupid to wonder if Ax Man will run in the Belmont. If Bob is looking for something else for Solomini to do....
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Treve
Posts: 4557
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Tue May 22, 2018 2:54 pm

Spahny wrote:By any measurable standard Justify regressed his last 2.

But there is a possibility that Justify actually does not like muddy tracks and that is what we are seeing. He might be so superior that he won on them anyway and if he does get a fast dry surface to run on at Belmont he will run off and hide. To some extent that is conjecture but not entirely. His best races have come on fast tracks. My problem with that is that I believe closers were terribly hampered by the track conditions at the Derby and Preakness. So Justify did also benefit from the conditions.

At this point I still can't wait to take a shot against him. But anything I bet to win will probably bet to place too. And don't think for a second I won't applaud him if Justify draws off down the stretch. If I have money on the 2nd place finisher then even better. A perfect storm.

It's probably really stupid to wonder if Ax Man will run in the Belmont. If Bob is looking for something else for Solomini to do....
I'd say his most visually impressive race actually came on a wet track, then again who knows what he was beating then, but he looked very good over that wet track. Not sure I buy the idea he dislikes muddy tracks in of themselves. But maybe the weather conditions. I'd say in the case of the Derby the rain itself could be a factor it's not particularly pleasant to run with water pummelling your eyeballs.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Treve
Posts: 4557
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Tue May 22, 2018 3:36 pm

Per DRF's David Grening, the Baffert trainee Restoring Hope is possible for Belmont Stakes.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Big Ten
Posts: 785
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Tue May 22, 2018 7:24 pm

I remember Mike Smith saying how American Pharoah didn't exactly put away Firing Line so easily in the Kentucky Derby and it gave me some optimism for Justify's chances to win the Belmont. I still feel Justify looks like he's getting tired. Now if the Belmont does lack the early speed, then his chances increases and he could be long gone.

I'm 100% sure I won't bet on the Belmont. Only there at Los Al to watch as a fan. Hope Justify proves me wrong. I will be celebrating like I did when he won the first two legs. No Jerry Bailey and Alex Solis to try to speed up their horses (like my boy, Rock Hard Ten) to help ruin the favorite's chances.

Justify's "A" game beats his crop easily right now. It's if he has enough gas left in the tank to produce another "A" game performance? We'll just wait and see...
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
katmandu
Posts: 1212
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:16 am

Tue May 22, 2018 11:01 pm

Spahny wrote:If people want to see bald eagles I recommend the San Juan Islands in Washington state. Also anywhere around Port Townsend and Port Angeles. You won't go an hour without seeing one. Sometimes up close. They aren't shy.
Or you can just drive from Issaquah (a Seattle "outpost") to downtown Seattle on I-90. There is an eagle nest just south of I-90 in the tall firs as you cross on to Mercer Island going west, it's been there for years. But much better to go to the San Juans, etc. than to commute to work. . . . :lol:

Speaking of eagles, this spectacular footage is making the rounds (ETA - this was taken in the San Juans):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTKMpxEAzXw
Last edited by katmandu on Wed May 23, 2018 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Somnambulist

Wed May 23, 2018 9:14 am

Big Ten wrote: I'm 100% sure I won't bet on the Belmont. Only there at Los Al to watch as a fan. Hope Justify proves me wrong. I will be celebrating like I did when he won the first two legs. No Jerry Bailey and Alex Solis to try to speed up their horses (like my boy, Rock Hard Ten) to help ruin the favorite's chances.
Birdstone was quite honestly a very quality animal. People really seem to forget this.

As an aside, I told my dad I really liked Birdstone in that race but had to have been about 15 and couldn't bet by myself, and he was "too tired" to take me to OTB. I like to remind him I tried helping him to an early retirement every now and then.
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