Accelerate vs Justify HOTY

Who gets your vote?

Justify
24
32%
Accelerate
50
68%
 
Total votes: 74
Tessablue
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Location: Boston

Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:40 am

...you all realize that the sport would be in a much healthier place if Accelerate was on the list, right? The fact that only Justify made any sort of impact on the wider sports audience only emphasizes the harm done by his early retirement.
mariasmon wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:49 pm
La Verdad won an Eclipse without a G1 to her name. There's something to be said for having the most consistent season. Horse can't help it if the division in which he excels has a (comparative) dearth of graded stakes and only one North American G1 available.
I completely forgot about La Verdad, that's a great point. If anything, the lack of graded stakes often forces the best horses in the division to race against each other.
peeptoad
Posts: 2789
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:35 am

Tessablue wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:40 am
...you all realize that the sport would be in a much healthier place if Accelerate was on the list, right? The fact that only Justify made any sort of impact on the wider sports audience only emphasizes the harm done by his early retirement.
Fo shiz...
Tessablue wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:40 am
completely forgot about La Verdad, that's a great point. If anything, the lack of graded stakes often forces the best horses in the division to race against each other.
Isn’t this what we want though? (Or am I misunderstanding your point? )
Tessablue
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Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:24 am

peeptoad wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:35 am
Tessablue wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:40 am
completely forgot about La Verdad, that's a great point. If anything, the lack of graded stakes often forces the best horses in the division to race against each other.
Isn’t this what we want though? (Or am I misunderstanding your point? )
Oh, yeah that wasn't clear- I mean that even though Stormy Liberal only has the one G1 victory, the lesser graded stakes in his division tend to still have high-quality fields because there aren't many other options, so his record is better than it looks. I think it's great that turf sprints are getting more recognition, but at the same time the division is a pretty good model for what happens when you reduce the pool of available G1s.
peeptoad
Posts: 2789
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:39 am

Tessablue wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:24 am
peeptoad wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:35 am
Tessablue wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:40 am
completely forgot about La Verdad, that's a great point. If anything, the lack of graded stakes often forces the best horses in the division to race against each other.
Isn’t this what we want though? (Or am I misunderstanding your point? )
Oh, yeah that wasn't clear- I mean that even though Stormy Liberal only has the one G1 victory, the lesser graded stakes in his division tend to still have high-quality fields because there aren't many other options, so his record is better than it looks. I think it's great that turf sprints are getting more recognition, but at the same time the division is a pretty good model for what happens when you reduce the pool of available G1s.
Got it, and yes I mis-read your point initially. I do agree (as we discussed previously) on the race grades vs divisions, total #s, etc.
MR-W
Posts: 206
Joined: Sat Oct 05, 2013 6:46 pm

Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:17 pm

stark wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:24 pm
MR-W wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:12 pm
barbaro111 wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:09 am
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... 0_list_123#

Justify lands on ESPN's dominant 20 list--
Accelerate ain't there
Point being: the triple crown is a very big deal
When it comes to horse racing, ESPN reminds me of my local newspaper. They look at the glitz and the glamor and don't know much about the inter workings of the sport. I doubt that they even know who Accelerate is. Just sayin'...
Sounds like you could be describing ABC tv and the Academy Awards.
Isn't it true that 87% of the fans fit into that category?
Yep.
stark
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Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:29 pm

Image
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Starine
Posts: 4237
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2014 12:39 am
Location: South Carolina

Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:40 pm

peeptoad wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:32 am
From Baffert and Sadler:
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/so ... rt-sadler/
Thanks for sharing this link. They both make very strong cases for their horses while being respectful of the other's.
sweettalk
Posts: 2006
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 5:05 pm

Sun Dec 16, 2018 4:01 am

peeptoad wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:32 am
From Baffert and Sadler:
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/so ... rt-sadler/
My take on it is that it is incredibly difficult to win the Triple Crown and he made it look easy.
i don't think we watched the same preakness, i'll go rewatch it because i clearly missed something.
Rick1323
Posts: 846
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:00 pm

Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:23 pm

stark wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:24 pm
MR-W wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:12 pm
barbaro111 wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:09 am
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... 0_list_123#

Justify lands on ESPN's dominant 20 list--
Accelerate ain't there
Point being: the triple crown is a very big deal
When it comes to horse racing, ESPN reminds me of my local newspaper. They look at the glitz and the glamor and don't know much about the inter workings of the sport. I doubt that they even know who Accelerate is. Just sayin'...
Sounds like you could be describing ABC tv and the Academy Awards.
Isn't it true that 87% of the fans fit into that category?
After reading this thread, I would have to agree......
Everyone come home sound.....
Rick1323
Posts: 846
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:00 pm

Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:58 pm

On a related note, this weeks Sports Illustrated has a story on Justify. A well written piece that covers his 112 day career. It should have been titled "Home run hitters get all the chicks"......
Everyone come home sound.....
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Big Ten
Posts: 700
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 am

"There’s no timetable you can employ at will. The Triple Crown dates are set in stone, three races in a five weeks, period. You can’t pick and choose."
Bob Baffert makes a point. You can't pick and choose.

Once Justify won the Kentucky Derby in the wettest rendition for it, he had to win again on an off-track. He can't just skip it because winning the TC is the goal. Try putting Accelerate in those type of conditions when he was the same age? Would he win?

I don't care if Audible lost recently. American Pharoah didn't face Beholder, California Chrome, or Shared Belief in the BC Classic, did he? Didn't Secretariat lose twice on dirt against his elders?

I believe Accelerate is the faster horse but the accomplishment that Justify did in 112 days should trump it. Like missing training camp and preseason. Then winning the Super Bowl THREE times.

Accelerate had room for error. He lost in Oaklawn. Easily forgiven. He wasn't attempting a TC, was he? We can sweep that loss under the rug. Justify had a narrow room for error and everything he did was magnified.

Accelerate's connections had the ability to pick and choose. If the conditions were bad, they could just scratch. Baffert couldn't just do that. He couldn't just skip the Preakness.

To me, the Triple Crown is why I still watch horse racing. Might be only a bunch of 3YOs, but it will always be American racing's holy grail.

1977 - Seattle Slew: 7-6-0-0
2018 - Justify: 6-6-0-0

If they awarded Slew for HotY, they should award Justify.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Katewerk
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Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm

Big Ten wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 am
"There’s no timetable you can employ at will. The Triple Crown dates are set in stone, three races in a five weeks, period. You can’t pick and choose."
Bob Baffert makes a point. You can't pick and choose. [snip]
I argued this earlier in the thread, a few weeks ago. There are ample opportunities for connections to select where and when a horse runs to maximilze his Gr1 win chances. That flexibility doesn't exist for a Triple Crown, and thus it will always be the most difficult of challenges.
barbaro111
Posts: 534
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:43 pm

Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:21 pm

Katewerk wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm
Big Ten wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 am
"There’s no timetable you can employ at will. The Triple Crown dates are set in stone, three races in a five weeks, period. You can’t pick and choose."
Bob Baffert makes a point. You can't pick and choose. [snip]
I argued this earlier in the thread, a few weeks ago. There are ample opportunities for connections to select where and when a horse runs to maximilze his Gr1 win chances. That flexibility doesn't exist for a Triple Crown, and thus it will always be the most difficult of challenges.
totally agree
Rick1323
Posts: 846
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:00 pm

Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:33 pm

Katewerk wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm
Big Ten wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 am
"There’s no timetable you can employ at will. The Triple Crown dates are set in stone, three races in a five weeks, period. You can’t pick and choose."
Bob Baffert makes a point. You can't pick and choose. [snip]
I argued this earlier in the thread, a few weeks ago. There are ample opportunities for connections to select where and when a horse runs to maximilze his Gr1 win chances. That flexibility doesn't exist for a Triple Crown, and thus it will always be the most difficult of challenges.
A curse and a benefit. In the TC a horse gets to run all 3 races against the same crop. If the crop happens to suit the horses style perfectly, as this one did, it is a matter of remaining sound. The best conditioner in history saw to that.
Everyone come home sound.....
Horsebagger
Posts: 2014
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:20 pm

Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:32 am

Rick1323 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:33 pm
Katewerk wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm
Big Ten wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 am


Bob Baffert makes a point. You can't pick and choose. [snip]
I argued this earlier in the thread, a few weeks ago. There are ample opportunities for connections to select where and when a horse runs to maximilze his Gr1 win chances. That flexibility doesn't exist for a Triple Crown, and thus it will always be the most difficult of challenges.
A curse and a benefit. In the TC a horse gets to run all 3 races against the same crop. If the crop happens to suit the horses style perfectly, as this one did, it is a matter of remaining sound. The best conditioner in history saw to that.
Because no horse on the triple crown trail in that guy's barn with his training program ever comes out of it unsound. Gotcha.
Rick1323
Posts: 846
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:00 pm

Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:21 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:32 am
Rick1323 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:33 pm
Katewerk wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm


I argued this earlier in the thread, a few weeks ago. There are ample opportunities for connections to select where and when a horse runs to maximilze his Gr1 win chances. That flexibility doesn't exist for a Triple Crown, and thus it will always be the most difficult of challenges.
A curse and a benefit. In the TC a horse gets to run all 3 races against the same crop. If the crop happens to suit the horses style perfectly, as this one did, it is a matter of remaining sound. The best conditioner in history saw to that.
Because no horse on the triple crown trail in that guy's barn with his training program ever comes out of it unsound. Gotcha.
Some come out dead before the TC trail starts, but that doesn't take away from his ability to get a horse ready for a specific date. No small accomplishment that not many have mastered to his level of success. Pletcher is a monster day to day. He wins with all sorts of horses at an unprecedented rate, but he has not been able to master Bafferts ability to have a horse ready for a peak performance on a series of dates. In many ways Baffert is despicable, but his greatness is hard to deny.......
Everyone come home sound.....
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Curtis
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Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:52 pm

Rick1323 wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:21 pm
Horsebagger wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:32 am
Rick1323 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:33 pm


A curse and a benefit. In the TC a horse gets to run all 3 races against the same crop. If the crop happens to suit the horses style perfectly, as this one did, it is a matter of remaining sound. The best conditioner in history saw to that.
Because no horse on the triple crown trail in that guy's barn with his training program ever comes out of it unsound. Gotcha.
Some come out dead before the TC trail starts, but that doesn't take away from his ability to get a horse ready for a specific date. No small accomplishment that not many have mastered to his level of success. Pletcher is a monster day to day. He wins with all sorts of horses at an unprecedented rate, but he has not been able to master Bafferts ability to have a horse ready for a peak performance on a series of dates. In many ways Baffert is despicable, but his greatness is hard to deny.......
Bingo! He’s the devil we know.😉
Apollo
Posts: 298
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:05 pm

Sat Dec 22, 2018 5:20 am

There is no good argument for Accelerate. He will be forgotten as soon as his career ends.

Only horse racing could be dense enough to pretend this is any type of debate at all. It reminds me of football fans who ignore the big picture and change opinion of every player and team every week. I remember working for a sportsbook manager who said his dream scenario was to have every game and every sporting event televised every day, and every bettor watching each and every one of those games. His reasoning was incredibly sound: The more decisions they were forced to make, and the more they paid attention to the most recent outcome, the worse their clarity would be.

And that's exactly what happened here. The poll result in itself is a condemnation of racing mindset.
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Big Ten
Posts: 700
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Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:51 pm

If Ghostzapper can win Horse of the Year off four starts, Justify can win it off six. Justify is sorta like our Ghostzapper-version among Triple Crown winners except Justify ran six times in a span of 112 days. From Ghostzapper's '03 Vosburgh to '05 Met Mile, those six starts spanned nearly 20 months!

I actually think Arrogate was the most talented horse Bob Baffert ever trained and it's a damn shame he never won HotY. He would've defeated American Pharoah and Justify soundly considering he beat California Chrome twice when he was still technically a 3YO. We'll now look back at Arrogate as one of the most talented horses to never win HotY right alongside Easy Goer.

California Chrome was a better horse than Accelerate, Dortmund, Keen Ice, or any horse AP and Justify ever faced. Arrogate was not the same horse when he returned from Dubai. Maybe he hated Del Mar but what we saw from his Travers up to his DWC was a completely different animal than the final three starts he had. It's similar to Sunday Silence, Easy Goer, and Rachel when they turned 4. Just never the same again.

With the way Steve Haskin sounds in his blog, I can already sense he will vote for Justify. Sometimes these awards is based off narratives. And the biggest story of this year has been Justify. Nobody was talking Accelerate back in March, were they? I remember Squeaky posting a Justify thread here by March.

Ok, I was mistaken. Omaha was the only Triple Crown winner who didn't win HotY. I checked his 1935 season and he races up to July winning 6 of 9 races. I just don't see Justify being denied.

- 2nd TC winner to win it while undefeated
- 1st TC winner to retire undefeated
- 1st TC winner to never race as a 2YO
- Broke the Apollo curse

Justify is also our largest Triple Crown winner. That picture of him next to American Pharoah at Coolmore is really cool to see. I know beauty is subjective, but I consider Justify to be among the Top 3 most handsome TC winners we ever had with only Secretariat being prettier. Justify might be prettier than Affirmed. He certainly has the better physique.

Maybe the voters are still salty at Justify's connections for retiring him so soon? They need to realize, it was only business. Nothing personal. Right after Justify won the Santa Anita Derby, I had already thought about him retiring by June if he had won the Triple Crown. It was so obvious for many of us. Had Arrogate not run after DWC, wouldn't we look at him differently?

I honestly feel if Justify was given a chance to run in the BC Classic, he would've given Accelerate all he can handle. It wasn't like Mendelssohn lost by alot to Accelerate. We only saw maybe half of Justify's potential. A mature 5YO horse vs a 3YO who still ran green in the Santa Anita Derby and still won easily beating a nice colt in BDO.

Justify is going to be named the 2018 Horse of the Year. He has the East Coast vote. Accelerate is a nice horse and I wouldn't be shocked or sad if he won it. But nobody talked about Accelerate until recently. His connections got to pick and choose since they weren't aiming for a TC. He lost once in Oaklawn and only won one race outside Cali.

I'm no Accelerate hater. I was there when I saw him beat Arrogate in the San Diego. I recorded the race. I remember walking out of Del Mar like 3 minutes later and just laughing. Thinking what the hell did I just saw? Accelerate is worthy enough for HotY. I already dub him the Baffert-killer.

I just feel Justify deserves it if they gave the award to Ghostzapper with only four starts and to Seattle Slew with only seven starts racing from March-July. It's quality over quantity for me this year. Maybe this is the Baffert horse that won't lose to Accelerate this time?

We have 34 different BC Classic winners in a span of 35 years (1984-2018) but only 13 horses have won the Triple Crown in a span of 144 years (1875-2018). Award rarity. Thank you, #12 & #13. The Millennials' Triple Crown winners. You gave a new generation a lifetime of great memories...
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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