2019 Three-Year-Olds

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Somnambulist
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Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:09 pm

thinair wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:50 pm
stark wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:40 pm
I'd like to know a listmaker that you respect and admire the effort they put forth
Privman puts enormous effort into his work for DRF and it shows.
I think Kennedy on this forum does, too.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Spahny
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Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:31 pm

There appears to be some form of brinkmanship going on with the Baffert and Hollendorfer barns. Baffert is talking about running both Game Winner and Improbable in the San Felipe despite his well established track record of keeping his good horses separated. It could be that Baffert is just running a temperature. Or more likely it's an attempt to affect where Instagrand debuts this year. Right now that also appears to be the San Felipe. And that's a pretty fast horse.

Maybe Dorfer should also nominate Galilean to the San Felipe just to make it all even more obvious. Although it's a little hard for me to believe that Baffert would believe he could dupe the Dorf this easily so who knows? I do definitely get the impression these two are not the best of friends.

Or maybe it's just me. If the game gets a little boring maybe you can just invent some drama. Fake news is the new normal. Hell you don't even need to be very good at it apparently.
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Starine
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Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:37 pm

I don't put too much stock into Haskin's lists parlaying into a the selection of the Derby winner, but I do find them interesting to read. Although all that nonsense about the 'Derby Gods' gets old though...
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Starine
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Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:40 pm

Maximum Security on Path to Florida Derby
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... rida-derby
Considering he started his career Dec. 20 in a $16,000 maiden claimer, Maximum Security has already exceeded initial expectations by a wide margin.

Not only is the homebred 3-year-old undefeated in three starts, but his eye-opening 18 1/4-length romp Feb. 20 in a starter optional-claiming race at Gulfstream Park gave him a combined winning margin of 34 1/2 lengths in his trio of races at the south Florida track.
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Curtis
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Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:53 pm

Spahny wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:31 pm
There appears to be some form of brinkmanship going on with the Baffert and Hollendorfer barns. Baffert is talking about running both Game Winner and Improbable in the San Felipe despite his well established track record of keeping his good horses separated. It could be that Baffert is just running a temperature. Or more likely it's an attempt to affect where Instagrand debuts this year. Right now that also appears to be the San Felipe. And that's a pretty fast horse.

Maybe Dorfer should also nominate Galilean to the San Felipe just to make it all even more obvious. Although it's a little hard for me to believe that Baffert would believe he could dupe the Dorf this easily so who knows? I do definitely get the impression these two are not the best of friends.

Or maybe it's just me. If the game gets a little boring maybe you can just invent some drama. Fake news is the new normal. Hell you don't evenw need to be very good at it apparently.
Well Baffert did dupe some people last year by talking up Justify going to Sunland while hoping that first level allowance would go the day after the San Felipe. I think Baffert thinks he’s got three fianalists for the Louisville Shuttle and as you say, to quote The Offspring, when Baffert’s 3yo’s come out and play, this time of year, he likes to keep ‘em separated. He may send Mucho Gusto to the Fair Grounds for their Derby, and split the other two between the Rebel and the San Felipe. Of course I’m not on his speed dial so I’m just guessing.

Instagrand, I find puzzling. Larry Best, the owner, went out of his way last summer to proclaim that Instagrand was being put away for the year because they wanted a horse for the next summer and fall and the TC wasn’t a priority. If that’s so, and despite pulling the plug all really was Grand with Instagrand, why comeback in the San Felipe? It is Dorf’s MO to run for the most he can against the least he can, so why not just ease him back the way he did Shared Belief? Do they just want Derby points to give them options? This is why I don’t usually handicap people, horses are hard enough.
Spahny
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Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:19 pm

Curtis wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:53 pm

Well Baffert did dupe some people last year by talking up Justify going to Sunland while hoping that first level allowance would go the day after the San Felipe. I think Baffert thinks he’s got three fianalists for the Louisville Shuttle and as you say, to quote The Offspring, when Baffert’s 3yo’s come out and play, this time of year, he likes to keep ‘em separated. He may send Mucho Gusto to the Fair Grounds for their Derby, and split the other two between the Rebel and the San Felipe. Of course I’m not on his speed dial so I’m just guessing.

Instagrand, I find puzzling. Larry Best, the owner, went out of his way last summer to proclaim that Instagrand was being put away for the year because they wanted a horse for the next summer and fall and the TC wasn’t a priority. If that’s so, and despite pulling the plug all really was Grand with Instagrand, why comeback in the San Felipe? It is Dorf’s MO to run for the most he can against the least he can, so why not just ease him back the way he did Shared Belief? Do they just want Derby points to give them options? This is why I don’t usually handicap people, horses are hard enough.
I saw some excerpts of Best's comments from last year regarding Instagrand. At the time he seemed to be saying that he thought 2yos were over raced and that's why he wanted to stop on him. But I could be misremembering. He was criticized for the move but I didn't think he was saying anything that hasn't been said in places like this. Where are the 3yos from last year?

Instagrand is training with purpose and he is going to race soon. He rated behind workmates willingly last time and galloped out strong. If he's not ready now he's pretty close. I would be surprised if they ship him for his first 2 turn experience. I think he will be in the San Felipe and for 8.5 furlongs he will be very strong competition for any horse. I'm sure Baffert has seen him working.
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Curtis
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Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:26 pm

Spahny wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:19 pm
Curtis wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:53 pm

Well Baffert did dupe some people last year by talking up Justify going to Sunland while hoping that first level allowance would go the day after the San Felipe. I think Baffert thinks he’s got three fianalists for the Louisville Shuttle and as you say, to quote The Offspring, when Baffert’s 3yo’s come out and play, this time of year, he likes to keep ‘em separated. He may send Mucho Gusto to the Fair Grounds for their Derby, and split the other two between the Rebel and the San Felipe. Of course I’m not on his speed dial so I’m just guessing.

Instagrand, I find puzzling. Larry Best, the owner, went out of his way last summer to proclaim that Instagrand was being put away for the year because they wanted a horse for the next summer and fall and the TC wasn’t a priority. If that’s so, and despite pulling the plug all really was Grand with Instagrand, why comeback in the San Felipe? It is Dorf’s MO to run for the most he can against the least he can, so why not just ease him back the way he did Shared Belief? Do they just want Derby points to give them options? This is why I don’t usually handicap people, horses are hard enough.
I saw some excerpts of Best's comments from last year regarding Instagrand. At the time he seemed to be saying that he thought 2yos were over raced and that's why he wanted to stop on him. But I could be misremembering. He was criticized for the move but I didn't think he was saying anything that hasn't been said in places like this. Where are the 3yos from last year?

Instagrand is training with purpose and he is going to race soon. He rated behind workmates willingly last time and galloped out strong. If he's not ready now he's pretty close. I would be surprised if they ship him for his first 2 turn experience. I think he will be in the San Felipe and for 8.5 furlongs he will be very strong competition for any horse. I'm sure Baffert has seen him working.
My policy is as long as we all take care of our horses, I’ll do mine and the other guys can do theirs, so Best can do what he wants. I also don’t necessarily disagree with the fact that they’re asked to do too much at two. Be that as it may, why not just start him later at two? If you don’t trot him out until the fall this big gap in race activity wouldn’t be there. The same owner seemed intent on “overracing” Rowayton until he proved he wouldn’t/couldn’t change leads and they pulled the plug for awhile.

I’m guessing you’re right, Baffert has seen Instagrand train and he’s thinking maybe threatening the two big guns—I think Baffert sees Game Winner and Improbable as his top two—might alter Dorf’s plans but I doubt it. I think Game Winner will stay here to face Instagrand and Improbable and Mucho Gusto will travel. Whatever, it should be fun.
thinair
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Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:05 pm

I thought Best made some comments about not caring about the Derby and wanting to have a good 4YO, or something like that, but maybe I'm wrong.

He doesn't seem like an easy owner:-)
stark
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Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:15 pm

This is the article from last September, along with 400+ thoughtful comments.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... f-training
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Treve
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Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:04 am

Thanks stark I was about to say that from what I remembered of that article it wasn’t about pulling him out of racing completely, or necessarily avoiding the KY Derby, just that the Derby was not an absolute and he’d rather the colt have a nice 3yo season with spaced out starts if necessary, rather than pressure him to make the Derby and if he made the Derby he would probably not run him through the TC. In trying to strike a balance between a good 3yo run while preserving him enough to run at 4.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Curtis
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Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:15 pm

thinair wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:05 pm
I thought Best made some comments about not caring about the Derby and wanting to have a good 4YO, or something like that, but maybe I'm wrong.

He doesn't seem like an easy owner:-)
No, he does not.
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Sparrow Castle
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Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:39 pm

Maximus Mischief Ruled out of Fountain of Youth
Cash is King LLC and LC Racing’s Maximus Mischief (Into Mischief) has been ruled out of Saturday’s GII Xpressbet Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park following a sub-par work in Hallandale Sunday morning.

“The horse didn’t breeze too good, so he is out of the Fountain of Youth,” trainer Butch Reid told the Gulfstream press office. “He just kind of went through the motions. The jockey wasn’t happy with the way he galloped out. All things considered, we’re going to go back to the drawing board and look for another spot.”

Maximus Mischief breezed a half-mile in :49.02 under jockey Jose Ortiz at Gulfstream Park Sunday.
More: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/ma ... n-of-youth

Maximus Mischief to be sidelined indefinitely
Trainer Robert "Butch" Reid Jr. said Maxiumus Mischief will be sidelined indefinitely after exiting this morning's half-mile work at Gulfstream Park with an undisclosed injury. Maximus Mischief was being eased at the wire by jockey Jose Ortiz after working four furlongs in 49.04.

"He didn't come out of the breeze well," said Reid. "We weren't happy with the way he pulled up and even though he cooled out okay, after going over him with our vet it looks like he's going to need a substantial amount of time off. It's disappointing, but that's the game. With time, hopefully he'll be able to get back to the level we think he can be at."
http://live.drf.com/nuggets/47152-maxim ... definitely
stark
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Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:12 pm

Speaking of lists....TimeformUS enters the fray....
http://www.horseraceinsider.com/HRI-Fea ... at-the-top
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Gemini
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Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:30 am

Too bad about Maximus Mischief, but thank God they caught the problem before it became catastrophic.
thinair
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Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:32 am

Gemini wrote:
Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:30 am
Too bad about Maximus Mischief, but thank God they caught the problem before it became catastrophic.
It sounds like a tendon issue. Those don't become catastrophic.
katmandu
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Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:50 pm

Remember this one? She's looking pretty good.

https://www.xbtv.com/video/newspaperofr ... 25th-2019/
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Starine
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Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:08 pm

katmandu wrote:
Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:50 pm
Remember this one? She's looking pretty good.

https://www.xbtv.com/video/newspaperofr ... 25th-2019/
Thanks for sharing this. I'd forgotten all about her and just that breeze alone makes me excited for her season this year.
thinair
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Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:50 pm

katmandu wrote:
Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:50 pm
Remember this one? She's looking pretty good.

https://www.xbtv.com/video/newspaperofr ... 25th-2019/
That's awesome. Thanks. Can't wait until she runs at Keeneland.
Three Ring
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Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:18 pm

stark wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:12 pm
Speaking of lists....TimeformUS enters the fray....
http://www.horseraceinsider.com/HRI-Fea ... at-the-top
That is the strangest Derby list I've ever seen. Not That Brady is a sentimental pick for me, but I'm not sure I'd even rank him in the top ten at this point. Great story if he were to win.
thinair
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Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:44 pm

Three Ring wrote:
Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:18 pm
stark wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:12 pm
Speaking of lists....TimeformUS enters the fray....
http://www.horseraceinsider.com/HRI-Fea ... at-the-top
That is the strangest Derby list I've ever seen. Not That Brady is a sentimental pick for me, but I'm not sure I'd even rank him in the top ten at this point. Great story if he were to win.
It's not a Derby list of horses that Craig likes....it is simply a list of the highest TimeformUS figures given to the males of this crop.

For instance, Complexity is not being pointed for any route races, and isn't nominated to the TC races.
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