2019 Three-Year-Olds

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Sparrow Castle
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Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:39 pm

Kaitlin Free @kaitlinefree
Mar 14
Mihos will have a break & is off of the Derby Trail according to his connections. will prepare for summer & fall races.
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CoronadosQuest
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:36 pm

By My Standards upsets the Louisiana Derby over Spinoff, who was 2nd.
Old Bones
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:37 pm

Favorite in the La. Derby, War of Will's back legs went out from under him coming out of the gate. Spinoff looked good.
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Big Ten
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:00 am

This year's Kentucky Derby could end the winning streak for the favorites.

1999 - Charismatic, 30-1
2009 - Mine That Bird, 50-1
2019 - ?

2010 - Super Saver, 4-1
2011 - Animal Kingdom, 25-1
2012 - I'll Have Another, 15-1

We're due anyway. I don't see any horse that blows me away. American Pharaoh still had a 100 Beyer in his Rebel. Game Winner gets like a 96. Just not convinced. Even Nyquist ran a 101 in the San Vicente.

Say the chalk does win the Derby. I see an upset right away in the Preakness. It's one of those years.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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CoronadosQuest
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:32 pm

Gunmetal Gray injured after SA work

https://www.drf.com/news/derby-prospect ... ture?type=
Happy Endings
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:05 pm

Big Ten wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:00 am

Say the chalk does win the Derby. I see an upset right away in the Preakness. It's one of those years.
Or, rather than major upsets, maybe more like 2007 when fairly evenly matched foes take turns beating each other up. So far, no single really outstanding star this year, though the preps aren't over yet....
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Mylute
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:06 pm

I've mentioned before that I'm a freshman college student, and this semester I'm taking English Comp II. Professor wanted us to write an argumentative, or "prove this will happen" paper in APA format. Instead of using the "Who Will Be the Next President?" or "Will the Avengers Defeat Thanos?" topics suggested I wrote about who will win the 2019 Derby.

For the sake of having an argument and backing it up, I wrote about how the favorite will win again this year and why they will most likley continue to do so.

I hope I am wrong. Racing gods, please give me another 50-1. I was really thinking we'd get a longshot in 2017 but alas.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
~ Peter Lorre 1904 - 1̶9̶6̶4̶ ∞
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Starine
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:25 pm

Yesterday I saw a tweet from Gary Stevens about how wide open the Derby is this year. And after this weekend I really have to agree.
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ElPrado2
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:53 pm

Another barn heard from....
Pletcher found a winner....Cutting Humor. Right after I snuck him into my fantasy stable string.
Sunland Park Derby.
Tessablue
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Mon Mar 25, 2019 3:07 pm

I think there's a pretty good chance that someone from the trio of Improbable/Game Winner/ Hidden Scroll wins big in their final prep and ends up solidly favored in the Derby. Just as likely that nobody ends up standing out, though! Personally, I'm really enjoying this crop so far. Just a lot of very nice, solid, evenly matched horses.
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ElPrado2
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Mon Mar 25, 2019 5:09 pm

I have no doubt that Hidden Scroll can run. His problem is mental. He needs the lights to come on.
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Curtis
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Mon Mar 25, 2019 5:25 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 3:07 pm
I think there's a pretty good chance that someone from the trio of Improbable/Game Winner/ Hidden Scroll wins big in their final prep and ends up solidly favored in the Derby. Just as likely that nobody ends up standing out, though! Personally, I'm really enjoying this crop so far. Just a lot of very nice, solid, evenly matched horses.
I really think Game Winner is the best horse as far as the Derby. I don’t think he’ll ever win big from now on as that’s not his thing, but he looks like the best bet to get 10f on May 4. Improbable is more brilliant but I don’t buy him at 10f—at least not now. I feel similarly about Hidden Scroll. The two latter horses probably have a higher ceiling and more brilliance than the 2yo champ but he’s further developed, now. If one really wants to find correlation to 2007, Game Winner is the Street Sense of the group.
Tessablue
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Mon Mar 25, 2019 6:59 pm

Curtis wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 5:25 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 3:07 pm
I think there's a pretty good chance that someone from the trio of Improbable/Game Winner/ Hidden Scroll wins big in their final prep and ends up solidly favored in the Derby. Just as likely that nobody ends up standing out, though! Personally, I'm really enjoying this crop so far. Just a lot of very nice, solid, evenly matched horses.
I really think Game Winner is the best horse as far as the Derby. I don’t think he’ll ever win big from now on as that’s not his thing, but he looks like the best bet to get 10f on May 4. Improbable is more brilliant but I don’t buy him at 10f—at least not now. I feel similarly about Hidden Scroll. The two latter horses probably have a higher ceiling and more brilliance than the 2yo champ but he’s further developed, now. If one really wants to find correlation to 2007, Game Winner is the Street Sense of the group.
I think that's a fair comparison, although I do think Street Sense showed more brilliance in his Juvenile win than Game Winner has in any of his races. I really want to see a little spark of brilliance from Game Winner in his next start- at the moment, I think it's the main thing he's missing. Certainly it would be difficult to deny him a top placing on any Derby list at present.

Agree with you that Improbable has brilliance but doesn't quite feel like a 10f horse. Hidden Scroll I'm waiting on, as he's only been flattered since his loss in the Fountain of Youth, but I really want to see some new tactics on his end.

Honestly, it might be recency bias but I'm a little taken by Anothertwistafate and By My Standards right now. Both finished up really well under some challenging circumstances (dirt, step up in class) and both figure to be overlooked as the later preps finish up. I think By My Standards got lost a little because he was at the center of some very challenging figuremaking situations at the Fairgrounds. Will certainly be watching the training of both with interest going forward!
Somnambulist

Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:18 pm

Street Sense gets so much blah but I think Hard Spun was the most underwhelming of that bunch.

This croo is exceptionally even matched. And has proved to be relatively formful so far. I think the biggest controversy so far has been Hidden Scroll. Pretty uneventful so far in a way.
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Mylute
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:03 am

> Game Winner

Game Winner is one of the more talented/impressive of the bunch but he still hasn't 'wowed' me in the way that Nyquist or Classic Empire did in the way of BCJ winners and 2yo champs. Honestly I came away from that race more impressed with Knicks Go.

> Improbable

It will definitely be interesting to see how far he can go. Dad City Zip was a sprinter/miler that sired much the same, and aside from sprinter Stravinsky on the dam side, there's a ton of stamina.

> Other

War of Will was my Derby horse and now with him most likely out I don't have one.

Really hope a horse that raced at two wins this year because like many I don't like the way things are going. People make a fuss about pushing juveniles too hard (which I agree with) but the average dirt juvenile of today runs 3/4 races (aside from the maiden maybe) and I think that makes a solid foundation.

And the horses Instagran's owner cited as being why the Triple Crown is Literally the Worst™ were horses that didn't/barely raced at two and then barely raced before the Derby.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
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ElPrado2
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:53 am

I'm going to get screeched at.
2 year olds need racing. The bone remodeling done at 2 helps prevent the sesamoid fractures we see at 3. Personally, I'd rather see a bucked shin than both sesamoids exploded when I look at an xray, but to each his own.
Then you have the bisphosphonates. By all means... every sales horse must be perfect. Get that money rolling in, baby! What's the record? Oh Hell! I have 2 that can beat that in the barn already! Here, that weanling needs another shot. So what if his xray will look like cottage cheese. He will look straight come July.
Oh, by the way, barn 8's vet told me about a steroid powder they don't test for yet! Those 3 May colts are going on that tomorrow. They will have so much muscle it will take 3 boys to get them in the ring. Hopefully they won't jump into the auctioneer's booth at Keeneland. Sorry about that sale handler in Miami. I can't understand why that colt tried to kick him to Havana. He was doing pretty well for his age before that....
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Miss Gladiator
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 12:51 pm

ElPrado2 wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:53 am
I'm going to get screeched at.
2 year olds need racing. The bone remodeling done at 2 helps prevent the sesamoid fractures we see at 3. Personally, I'd rather see a bucked shin than both sesamoids exploded when I look at an xray, but to each his own.
Then you have the bisphosphonates. By all means... every sales horse must be perfect. Get that money rolling in, baby! What's the record? Oh Hell! I have 2 that can beat that in the barn already! Here, that weanling needs another shot. So what if his xray will look like cottage cheese. He will look straight come July.
Oh, by the way, barn 8's vet told me about a steroid powder they don't test for yet! Those 3 May colts are going on that tomorrow. They will have so much muscle it will take 3 boys to get them in the ring. Hopefully they won't jump into the auctioneer's booth at Keeneland. Sorry about that sale handler in Miami. I can't understand why that colt tried to kick him to Havana. He was doing pretty well for his age before that....
Don't be shy, tell us how you really feel! :lol:

Seriously, I agree with every sarcastic word. The lack of control and regulations in this sport is unbelievable.
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ElPrado2
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:36 pm

The days of the long shot Derby winner are long gone. The point system pretty much put an end to it. The field is now stacked in favor of the winners of the bigger prep races.
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Big Ten
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:45 pm

I just think the horses who ran in Gulfstream are still a shade slower than the horses who ran in the Rebel with the exception of Hidden Scroll's outlier performance in the slop.

I was checking my Bovada odds earlier today and already made my bet on Omaha Beach. I saw Code of Honor and Hidden Scroll having lower odds than the horse who just upset the 2YO champ and the 3YO regarded as Baffert's best Derby hopeful.

I shook my head and laughed. I need to see the Florida Derby to get a good barometer on them. After the FOY, I'm not really seeing it. It's like watching Mucho Gusto failing in Sunland. As of today, Code of Honor and Hidden Scroll should have higher odds than Omaha Beach and Cutting Humor.

I'm not buying into Cutting Humor but if I had to pick a 4th horse behind my Top 3, it would be him. I like him more than the horses in Florida but I rarely should trust horses coming from there or from Louisiana. I got duped by Hence already. I'm no Pletcher/JV fan either.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Cutting_Humor

My bets are set for Improbable at 11-1 who I think may not hit the board and Omaha Beach at 16-1 who I think can hit the board especially if it's an off-track. Mike Smith must not get caught in a speed duel with either Hidden Scroll and Mucho Gusto. He must sit behind them and then pounce. The pace could be blazing.

I'll use Game Winner as a win saver if I like him enough that day. Perhaps he will be the chalk but at 4-1 or higher. I can place like $20 or less. The option is there but I mainly want to beat him because I don't believe in Joel Rosario and GW doesn't have that explosive kick. He's more of a grinder. It all depends what happens leading up to the race.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Curtis
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:59 pm

ElPrado2 wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:36 pm
The days of the long shot Derby winner are long gone. The point system pretty much put an end to it. The field is now stacked in favor of the winners of the bigger prep races.
This is true. The main reason I don’t like the point system is it dictates where people need to run their horses. The only real longshot chance anymore is if a Pletcher #3 or 4 wins. I’d say the same for Baffert but he usually doesn’t put them in if they haven’t got a shot at a big piece.

It would be all kinds of fun, this year, if Anothertwistafate would be able to pull it off. Blaine Wright is real accessible every season at Emerald Downs. He saddles his horses and roots them on from the apron. To get in, for sure, they’ll probably need to do what My Boy Jack did last year and go the Lexington route. If he wins that, being a Scat Daddy, he won’t be a long shot. If he were mine, I’d skip the TC altogether but I’m sure at the very least they’re committed to the Preakness.
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