Somnambulist wrote: ↑
Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:17 pm
Tessablue wrote: ↑
Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:10 pm
Meanwhile, I love
the 97 on Tacitus. He needed to improve, and he did. He also gave the impression that he had more to give after that early trouble. A similar step up in the Derby- or even just the same effort with a cleaner trip- puts him right there at the finish. Perhaps it's the color, but he reminds me quite a bit of Frosted, who made a similar leap forward in the Wood en route to an absolutely tremendous effort in the Derby.
I honestly really like him. Part of this might be because I was a Close Hatches fan girl, but he's improving every time out and still looks green. He'll run all day and he handled adversity well. Go Bill Mott!
Oh man, I keep forgetting that he's Close Hatches' son. Even better! And you just have to admire an inexperienced 3yo who finishes with his ears pricked after getting knocked around early. I think the biggest downside to him is the fact that he got pace to run at in his last two starts, but he gives me the impression of a horse who just gets into his best rhythm early regardless of where he is in the field. In a year when it feels like it'll be difficult to settle on a solid #1, he's way up there for me.
Meanwhile, what the heck do you do with Game Winner? He doesn't really give the impression that he's progressed from 2 to 3, but he keeps encountering these extenuating circumstances. Impossible to ignore, but unlikely to offer much value on the tote. I suppose he's just one to keep an eye on in the upcoming weeks.
The Derby future wager appears equally conflicted. Tacitus didn't move much last night but has come down pretty sharply to 8-1 this morning, while Game Winner, Maximum Security, and Roadster all battle it out at 6-1. Vekoma has barely moved off of 20-1 while Win Win Win has come down quite a bit to 22-1. If anybody on here loves Omaha Beach, now may be the time- he's at 12-1 with five hours left.
Here's the figures from Timeform: https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/stat ... 0811386885
They have the Blue Grass faster and the SA Derby slower than the Beyers (basic rule of thumb is subtract 20). Both seem pretty much in agreement about the Wood.