2019 Three-Year-Olds

tachyon
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:00 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:50 pm
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:39 pm
Does Win Win Win look like a Sunday silence-line horse, or what? :D
I was impressed by how much ground he made up in that short Keeneland stretch.
I think he'll be debated quite a bit going into the race, but there's no doubt his closing was legitimate and not an illusion. Final 1/8th was in 12.69, vs. Vekoma's slooooow 13.45. For reference, this is the fastest closing fraction in the Blue Grass since My Man Sam (12.67) in 2016.

And yeah, it does seem odd that Candy Ride produces horses with strange action in front. I also recall him having a beautiful fluid stride.

Visiting my mother this weekend and she wanted to switch off for the Santa Anita Derby... updates would be greatly appreciated.
Win Win Win closed so well and we may now know he can get distance.
But it’s a shame that he doesn’t have tactical speed at all.
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:09 pm

tachyon wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:00 pm
Win Win Win closed so well and we may now know he can get distance.
But it’s a shame that he doesn’t have tactical speed at all.
Yeah, and he doesn't break well either which is a huge problem in the Derby. But looking at the charts, he was one of the only horses all day who closed on this track. An interesting horse with a fascinating pedigree! Likely to get a good amount of attention moving forward.
tachyon
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:12 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:09 pm
tachyon wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:00 pm
Win Win Win closed so well and we may now know he can get distance.
But it’s a shame that he doesn’t have tactical speed at all.
Yeah, and he doesn't break well either which is a huge problem in the Derby. But looking at the charts, he was one of the only horses all day who closed on this track. An interesting horse with a fascinating pedigree! Likely to get a good amount of attention moving forward.
Glad to hear that! :D
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Sparrow Castle
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:21 pm

Didn't see anyone break down, safe to watch. Roadster, Game Winner, Instagrand, Nolo Contesto, in that order.
Horsebagger
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:22 pm

So, it took BB and Roadster to get my Derby interest to rise slightly today.

Overall, not feeling like I saw anything special today.
Last edited by Horsebagger on Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:22 pm

Sparrow Castle wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:21 pm
Didn't see anyone break down, safe to watch. Roadster, Game Winner, Instagrand, Nolo Contesto, in that order.
Thank you! Looking forward to catching the replay.
carole
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:23 pm

Wow quite the move from Roadster! And Mike Smith sat so quietly on him into the final turn, timed his move just right!

Game Winner and Instagrand both ran very admirable races.
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:39 pm

Caught a replay... it's probably the Baffert fatigue, but I wasn't blown away. Two very nice horses and I'll wait for the figures, but it feels like they should have put away Instagrand, who clearly doesn't want a distance, by more than that.

I don't know, really tough to judge over this slow track. Roadster closed in 12.79 which is probably really good over the surface. Game Winner is a wonderfully game horse who once again had some troubling circumstances, but how talented is he really?

One thing looks clear: the betting is going to be wiiiide open this year. I'm going to get some bets in on By My Standards at ~40-1 right now, and we'll see what happens next week.
tcw
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:57 pm

This should really set up Roadster and Game Winner well for the KD given the deeper, slower surface today at SA. GW was coming back on 3 weeks rest and will now have 4 weeks until the big race, where he should be super fit. We'll see how the Arkansas Derby turns out... if it goes according to form, Omaha Beach, Roadster, Game Winner, and Maximum Security (I know, the merry-go-round last out, but he's likely going to own two of the top pre-KD BSFs) will be at or near the top of most lists. Win x 3 also closed well in the Blue Grass and Tacitus should relish 10F based on his pedigree. As for Improbable, we'll see how he performs next out but have doubts regarding his ability/desire to go 10F.
Izvestia
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Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:27 am

This crop is bizarre.
I like Tacitus a lot and think there is more to come from him. He’s kind of green, but the talent and determination is there.
I’ve also got a soft spot for Vekoma, and thought his last race set him up for today. Not sure if he’s a Derby winner, but he’s in my top 5.
Omaha Beach worked impressively today and he’s also on my list.
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ElPrado2
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Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:32 am

"She has lousy action in front."
"Send her to Candy Ride, his is gorgeous."

Maybe the girl's genes beat the boy's sometimes.
Genetics 101
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Big Ten
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Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:04 am

The Wood Memorial was dreadful to listen to. It was like hearing a cat scratch a chalkboard.

Try to say Tacitus and Tax really fast and over and over. And their slow time didn't exactly lessen the blow.
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stark
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Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:37 am

Jay Privman
‏@DRFPrivman

Winning Beyer figures from yesterday's Derby preps:
Tacitus/Wood 97
Roadster/SA Derby 98
Vekoma/Blue Grass 94
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
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Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:10 pm

Vekoma- 94
Tacitus- 97
Roadster- 98

Thoughts on the figures: the SA Derby figure backs up my initial underwhelming impression. Good, but not standout, and certainly does not make Roadster's current 5-1 in the futures look tempting. Short of an unbelievable performance by Omaha Beach next week, we are looking at one of the most evenly matched races in recent history.

The Blue Grass figure makes Win Win Win a lot less interesting, IMO. I thought the race would come back a tad quicker than that, but he was the only horse who might be a factor at 10f coming out of the race. Unfortunately he just doesn't seem to be fast enough.

Meanwhile, I love the 97 on Tacitus. He needed to improve, and he did. He also gave the impression that he had more to give after that early trouble. A similar step up in the Derby- or even just the same effort with a cleaner trip- puts him right there at the finish. Perhaps it's the color, but he reminds me quite a bit of Frosted, who made a similar leap forward in the Wood en route to an absolutely tremendous effort in the Derby.
stark
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Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:15 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:10 pm
Vekoma- 94
Tacitus- 97
Roadster- 98

Thoughts on the figures: the SA Derby figure backs up my initial underwhelming impression. Good, but not standout, and certainly does not make Roadster's current 5-1 in the futures look tempting. Short of an unbelievable performance by Omaha Beach next week, we are looking at one of the most evenly matched races in recent history.
It's no secret that when handicapping the Derby, looking at how horses finished up the last 1/8th in their prep race is key, you might want to give Roadster a little more deserving credit imho.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Somnambulist
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Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:17 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:10 pm
Meanwhile, I love the 97 on Tacitus. He needed to improve, and he did. He also gave the impression that he had more to give after that early trouble. A similar step up in the Derby- or even just the same effort with a cleaner trip- puts him right there at the finish. Perhaps it's the color, but he reminds me quite a bit of Frosted, who made a similar leap forward in the Wood en route to an absolutely tremendous effort in the Derby.
I honestly really like him. Part of this might be because I was a Close Hatches fan girl, but he's improving every time out and still looks green. He'll run all day and he handled adversity well. Go Bill Mott!
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Tessablue
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Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:47 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:17 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:10 pm
Meanwhile, I love the 97 on Tacitus. He needed to improve, and he did. He also gave the impression that he had more to give after that early trouble. A similar step up in the Derby- or even just the same effort with a cleaner trip- puts him right there at the finish. Perhaps it's the color, but he reminds me quite a bit of Frosted, who made a similar leap forward in the Wood en route to an absolutely tremendous effort in the Derby.
I honestly really like him. Part of this might be because I was a Close Hatches fan girl, but he's improving every time out and still looks green. He'll run all day and he handled adversity well. Go Bill Mott!
Oh man, I keep forgetting that he's Close Hatches' son. Even better! And you just have to admire an inexperienced 3yo who finishes with his ears pricked after getting knocked around early. I think the biggest downside to him is the fact that he got pace to run at in his last two starts, but he gives me the impression of a horse who just gets into his best rhythm early regardless of where he is in the field. In a year when it feels like it'll be difficult to settle on a solid #1, he's way up there for me.

Meanwhile, what the heck do you do with Game Winner? He doesn't really give the impression that he's progressed from 2 to 3, but he keeps encountering these extenuating circumstances. Impossible to ignore, but unlikely to offer much value on the tote. I suppose he's just one to keep an eye on in the upcoming weeks.

The Derby future wager appears equally conflicted. Tacitus didn't move much last night but has come down pretty sharply to 8-1 this morning, while Game Winner, Maximum Security, and Roadster all battle it out at 6-1. Vekoma has barely moved off of 20-1 while Win Win Win has come down quite a bit to 22-1. If anybody on here loves Omaha Beach, now may be the time- he's at 12-1 with five hours left.

Here's the figures from Timeform: https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/stat ... 0811386885

They have the Blue Grass faster and the SA Derby slower than the Beyers (basic rule of thumb is subtract 20). Both seem pretty much in agreement about the Wood.
Tessablue
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Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:24 pm

According to the DRF, Nik Juarez got 15 days for his ride on Joevia.
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pointgivenfan
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Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:39 am

Tessablue wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:28 am
pointgivenfan wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:20 am
I knew I never liked you!
Okay Pointy..... :D
I was offline all weekend while at Keeneland so I missed this until now, but I'm almost considering putting you on ignore for this. ;)

Slightly more on-topic, Vekoma's action looks even weirder in person, can confirm. He does photograph surprisingly well: I only had a couple "dear God, what is happening" frames.
Tessablue wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:24 pm
According to the DRF, Nik Juarez got 15 days for his ride on Joevia.
Not surprised to see he was all "yeah I done effed up" with the stewards; he's got a track record of being a pretty good human being. Hopefully he takes the right lessons from this.
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Sparrow Castle
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Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:13 pm

Jennie Rees Verified account@TracksideJennie
30m30 minutes ago
#KyDerby: @SkychaiRacing's Somelikeithotbrown is out of @KentuckyDerby consideration after chipping hind ankle when 4th in @keeneland's #BlueGrassStakes, says Harvey Diamond. @TurfwayPark's #JeffRuby winner (pix by @CoadyPhoto) would have been most cleverly named horse in field!
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