The Rebel Parts I and II

stark
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Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:19 pm

Asmussen only has 6 bullets.
And now we know the reported quarter crack on Mandella's hoss was greatly exaggerated.
How much will a Baffert DD pay? ;)

1 Extra Hope (KY) 3/C L M E Smith 117 R E Mandella
2 Long Range Toddy (KY) 3/C L J K Court 119 S M Asmussen
3 Corruze (KY) 3/C L S Elliott 117 C A Hartman
4 Easy Shot (KY) 3/C L R E Eramia 117 J K Desormeaux
5 Proud Nation (KY) Owner Link 3/C L D Cabrera 117 J Sharp
6 Ninth Street (KY) 3/C L R Santana, Jr. 117 S M Asmussen
7 Classy John (LA) 3/C L D Cohen 117 D Stewart
8 Galilean (CA) 3/C L F Prat 122 J Hollendorfer
9 Improbable (KY) 3/C L D Van Dyke 119 B Baffert

1 Market King (KY) 3/C L J R Velazquez 117 D W Lukas
2 Laughing Fox (KY) 3/C L R Santana, Jr. 119 S M Asmussen
3 Parsimony (PA) 3/C L M Gutierrez 117 D F O'Neill
4 Jersey Agenda (KY) 3/C L J L Ortiz 117 S M Asmussen
5 Game Winner (KY) Owner Link 3/C L J Rosario 119 B Baffert
6 Omaha Beach (KY) 3/C L M E Smith 117 R E Mandella
7 Our Braintrust (MD) 3/C L D Cohen 117 M E Casse
8 Gunmetal Gray (KY) 3/C L F Prat 122 J Hollendorfer
9 Kaziranga (KY) 3/C L R E Eramia 117 S M Asmussen
10 Captain Von Trapp (KY) 3/C L R A Vazquez 119 S M Asmussen
Last edited by stark on Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:22 pm

I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Mylute
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Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:55 pm

I wonder which Rebel of 2019 we'll look back on as most important
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Big Ten
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Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:56 am

https://www.horseracingnation.com/conte ... mances_pps

^ I will NOT be shocked if Galilean upsets Improbable and Omaha Beach upsets Game Winner.

I'm not familiar with Improbable's jockey and his sire's AWD is poor. Galilean has raced twice since Improbable's last race. I love Richard Mandella and notice Mike Smith chose Omaha Beach over Gunmetal Gray. Omaha Beach has already raced twice this season.

I think Santa Anita canceling their races has completely threw off Team Baffert's plan. They're now forced to miss the SA Derby because of it while other 3YOs are already on their third prep of the year. A monkey wrench got thrown and it could cost Baffert's duo a little more seasoning.

This is no gimme for either one. Out of the two, I actually think Rebel A will be the easier one. Others think Game Winner will have it easier. I was watching Galilean and I just firmly believe Improbable is faster. His splits in LosAl was still faster than Galilean's entire mile run.

If my bet on Improbable loses in Rebel A, I'm going to try to upset Game Winner in Rebel B with Omaha Beach. Among all the trainers, I want to see Mandella win a Kentucky Derby.
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Sparrow Castle
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Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:41 pm

Jay Privman @DRFPrivman
2m2 minutes ago
Spoke to @OaklawnRacing stewards and it was admitted the draw was not done correctly for Rebel. Asmussen's 6 runners were split 4 and 2, rather than 3 and 3. Stewards chose yesterday not to re-draw race. My story, with comments from steward Stan Bowker:
https://www.drf.com/news/preview/mistak ... bel-stakes
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Katewerk
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:08 pm

Long shot Long Range Toddy took down Improbable in the Rebel Part 1, and he's a registered black.

https://www.pedigreequery.com/long+range+toddy
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Big Ten
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:08 pm

Well, that's a bummer. Crossing out Improbable now. That Derby future looks dead. I also expected more from Galilean but he's a first time shipper outside Cali.

Long Range Toddy had familiarity with the track. Now I'm going to try to upset Game Winner in Rebel B.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Palace Malice
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:12 pm

I might have my derby pick! Long Range Toddy! He's so beautiful and I loved his sire Take Charge Indy. :mrgreen:
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:13 pm

Four wide around both turns off the layoff and interrupted training, Improbably was clearly the best horse there.

Still, it feels like he should have been much the best against these. Wasn't a believer before, not a believer now. I also think Game Winner is extremely vulnerable in the next division.
stark
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:17 pm

A little surprised Baffert stayed home. Did they say why?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:20 pm

Both Rebels feel like trap races. Closing Santa Anita ruined Team Baffert plans. They were training in SoCal and now they have to race in Oaklawn a week later than scheduled? That's why Game Winner is also vulnerable. He hasn't raced in awhile.

I know one thing is for sure, Justify spoiled me last year and Improbable is no Justify. I only went to Los Al like three times. All for the TC races. And another time at Santa Anita for their Derby. I won each time. So 2018 did spoil me thanks to Justify's magical run.

I hated Drayden leaving Improbable hanging on the outside like that. So a vet like Jon Court came barreling down the lane. I think DVD is still wet behind the ears with races like this.

Omaha Beach for Rebel B. I trust Mike Smith.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:22 pm

Well, that and the Juvenile field has, to put it delicately, not held up.
luvsgeldings
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:26 pm

so happy for the winner of the Rebel part 1 - gorgeous horse - last registered black thoroughbred I can remember seeing was Six Perfections when she ran in the BC at santa anita years ago.

I echo the sentiments regarding Mandella - I would really love to see him win a KY Derby - wishing him all the best with Omaha Beach in round two of the Rebel.
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Personal Ensign
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:33 pm

Do you think that if Improbable had a more experienced jockey that he would have won this race? I didn't like that he was hung out on the outside either as I think it cost him the race.
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alissa
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:45 pm

I for one am very happy with the winner of the Rebel pt 1. He's a beautiful horse in person. Doesn't help that I absolutely love black horses.
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ThreeMustangs
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:50 pm

LRT looks black, but he’s registered with the Jockey Club as dark bay/brown.

His time was faster than than that of the older horses in the Essex.
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Big Ten
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:06 pm

I got #2 Laughing Fox to win. Another exacta with Game Winner over him to break even. Mandella just isn't known to be a great shipper. Another #2 deja vu with a horse who has won at the track and should be flying late.

Not making excuses for Improbable and Game Winner. The former just isn't good enough in my book. The latter won a BC Juvie in which nearly every horse he beat generally ran off the board as a 3YO.

It's a trap race. I'm happy to see the #2 as a 9-1 at this moment.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Big Ten
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:15 pm

Just not my day. Good win by Omaha Beach.

Game Winner didn't run a bad race by any means. I'll regard him higher than Improbable for sure. No Baffert horse is my #1 right now.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:19 pm

That 48-1 shot in third... that one stings a bit. But a great race and I don't think you can't dislike either of those horses coming out of it.

Final times very similar but the second division certainly passed the eye test better. Will be interesting to see the Beyers.
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pointgivenfan
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:20 pm

Game Winner probably needs to take "hanging when he gets even with another horse" off the List of Things He Does.
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