Million Dollar Louisiana Derby

stark
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Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:42 am

1 Roiland (KY) 3/C L J Graham 122 T M Amoss 12/1
2 Lemniscate (FL) 3/C L B J Hernandez, Jr. 122 K G McPeek 15/1
3 Limonite (KY) 3/C L J L Ortiz 122 S M Asmussen 20/1
4 Sueno (KY) 3/C L C J Lanerie 122 J K Desormeaux 8/1
5 By My Standards (KY) 3/C L G Saez 122 W B Calhoun 12/1
6 War of Will (KY) 3/C L T Gaffalione 122 M E Casse 6/5
7 Mr. Money (KY) 3/C L A Beschizza 122 W B Calhoun 20/1
8 Country House (KY) Owner Link 3/C L L Saez 122 W I Mott 9/2
9 Bankit (NY) 3/C L I Ortiz, Jr. 122 S M Asmussen 20/1
10 Spinoff (KY) 3/C L J R Velazquez 122 T A Pletcher 8/1
11 Hog Creek Hustle (KY) 3/C L M Mena 122 V L Foley 12/1
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:42 am

What say you?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:00 pm

Here’s one man’s opinion of the Louisiana Derby field:

1. Roiland (Amoss/Graham) - 12/1

Really like the way this guy tries. He has no speed and that’s always going to present him with an uphill battle. He’s going to find this pace-less group particularly challenging. He’s rallied from dead last of 14, 12 and 14 in his previous three races to be 5th, 7th and 3rd. The last two efforts came in the Lecomte and Risen Star, respectively, against favored War of Will and others in here, so the chances of him turning the tables to win here are slim, but he might be able to pick up a minor award. He’s currently under early consideration as a possible superfecta bomb in the Kentucky Derby. But first he’s going to have to earn points to get in that race—he currently has 10.

2. Lemniscate (McPeek/Hernandez Jr.) - 15/1

This son of Exchange Rate is fresh off a Gulfstream wire-to-wire, mile and one-sixteenth turf victory. He had two state-bred sprints before that. Trainer McPeek is known to score at a price and this one has inside speed in a race that seems void of early pace. The colt also has a Gulfstream best-of-7 work at 5/8 of a mile since the race. He should be around for a while, just not sure how we’ll he’ll route on dirt.

3. Limonite (Asmussen/Ortiz) - 20/1

He hasn’t run a poor race yet, although he’s got just one win in five starts. The son of Lemon Drop Kid has no speed, and also will be compromised by what appears as a soft early pace in here. In November, he moved in tandem with #1 Roiland, from last and next-to-last, in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. Both runners made up ground along the rail until Limonite angled outside for clear stretch running and Roiland remained inside waiting behind a wall of horses. Limonite outfinished #1 Roiland through the lane—losing by two lengths to winner Signalman. #1 Roiland finished nearly 6 lengths back. The jockey-trainer combo of Jose Oritz and Steve Asmussen help the cause and a March 4 Fair Grounds bullet 5/8, plus a 1:12 2/5 breeze March 11, suggest good things are in the cards for this one. Has to be used in exotics at anywhere near his 20-1 morning line.

4. Sueno (Desormeaux/Lanerie) - 8/1

He’s made the rounds a bit this year with 3 starts—one each at Golden Gate (Gold Rush, Santa Anita (Sham) and Oaklawn (Southwest)—all stakes—with in a win and two close seconds, respectively. He’s never been worse than third in 5 starts. Last out in the Southwest, he finished second, sandwiched between winner Super Steed and eventual Rebel winner Long Range Toddy. He figures mid-pack early and has a nice finish—a handy style. He’s also improved Beyer and Thoro-Graph figures in with each race, a positive sign for a 3-year-old. Usually overlooked in the wagering, he’s never been less than 6-1 and is 8-1 on this morning line this.

5. By My Standards (Calhoun/Saez) - 12/1

Look for this guy to be racing about mid-pack early. He scored an easy maiden win last out here at the Fair Grounds. He has 2 seconds and a third from three other starts. Note that he has 2 bullet works—at FG, March 2, 4 furlongs in :47 1/5, best of 87 and March 9, :59 breezing, best of 48. He needs to go a bit faster to hit the exotics scramble in here, but he’s always around.

6. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) - 6/5

This son of War Front began his career on the grass—at Woodbine, Keeneland and Churchill—with a second, third, fourth and fifth. Switched to a sloppy Churchill surface, he broke his maiden by 5 lengths in November. He 2-for-2 this year—Grade 3 Lecomte and Grade 2 Risen star—both by more than 2 lengths. In each case he comfortably stalked early pacesetters, took control at will and held sway. He’s got a great style that should fit well in this race. The mile and one-eighth distance is a minor concern, but he’s fit, strong, favored and impossible to ignore. He’s so much faster than any of his foes and proved that by beating nearly all of them solidly before. Here’ the rub: has he done too much, too soon? He’s the only runner in the field to have cleared 90 on the Beyer scale and he’s done it the last two outs! According to Thoro-Graph figures, he’s also posted two last-out figures that are 3 points better than those produced by anyone else. As they say, he could fire his ‘B’ shot and still win this race, but some of these foes are improving and could be bringing new ‘A’ games to this party.

7. Mr. Money (Calhoun/Beschizza) - 20/1

This colt broke maiden routing at Churchill in his third start and then was a respectable fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He had a nearly perfect trip in the Risen Star, just off eventual winner #6 War of Will, and faded in the lane. He was forced to check in the stretch but wasn’t moving forward at the time. It takes some further digging to like him off that effort. Jockey Gabe Saez, who’s ridden him in all five starts, is aboard #5 By My Standards (for same trainer Brett Calhoun) and Beschizza replaces him in the irons. Mr. Money will need to step up his game to cash here, but that’s not impossible. His BC Juvenile fourth off a mere maiden win was decent and he may have needed his last race. If that’s the case, he could improve and hit the exotics here at a big price.

8. Country House (Mott/Saez) - 9/2

Broke his maiden routing at Gulfstream and parlayed that score into a runner-up effort to #6 War of Will in the Risen Star. He was lugging-in through the lane then and that’s never a good sign. The son of Lookin At Lucky doesn’t have much speed, so he’s another that will have to close from behind into what seems like a ‘soft’ early pace. At less than 5-1 odds he seems a poor investment.

9. Bankit (Asmussen/Ortiz Jr.) - 20/1

This New York-bred has made the most starts of any soph in the field with 8—2 wins and 3 seconds. His past performance running lines are a bit unusual. Originally, he showed good speed against fellow 2-year-old, state-bred, stakes sprinters. However, in his last four starts he’s come from well off the pace to win the Sleepy Hollow (Aqu), finish second by a head in the Springboard Mile (RP), 6th and 5th in the Smarty Jones and Southwest, respectively, at Oaklawn. This might be an opportune moment for him to revive his speed from this outside post because there isn’t much gas in here. Of course, his best efforts have come lately when lagging early, so it’s not likely they’ll shift tactics here.

10. Spinoff (Pletcher/Velazquez) - 8/1

Trainer Todd Pletcher runners must always be respected in Kentucky Derby prep races. Spinoff returns following a massive 11 3/4-length allowance win at Tampa Bay—third start of his career and first since Saratoga. He has a bullet 1:00 2/5 at Palm Beach Downs in preparation for this. He broke maiden first out at Gulfstream over a ‘good’ surface in June. He waited until August to be third in the Saratoga Special. He’s got speed and seems to have quality. He’s also a decent price and might stay that way until post time.

11. Hog Creek Hustle (Foley/Mena) - 12/1

Solidly defeated by #6 War of Will in both the Lecomte and Risen Star, respectively, this guy would need help to reverse things and win the Louisiana Derby. He’s got a difficult outside post, has no speed in a race with no pace and hasn’t won since taking a 7-furlong Churchill allowance race in November. He made a nice, wide closing run in the Risen Star, but flattened out in the stretch and was out-finished by Country House and Roiland. While he would be a big surprise in the ‘win’ slot, an in-the-money finish isn’t impossible.

Bottom Line:

Make no mistake War of Will probably will win. Handicappers shouldn’t spend too much time trying to defeat him. What’s really interesting, though, is attempting to figuring out which horses might finish second, third and perhaps fourth in exotic wagers. Also, if War of Will should stumble just a bit, which horses are likely to take advantage? Several of these are compromised by closing styles but are real triers with improving patterns at big prices. They could fill underneath slots.

Strictly One to Beat: #6 War of Will
Improving Types: #4 Sueno, #10 Spinoff, #1 Roiland
Price Exotics: #7 Mr. Money, #5 By My Standards, #2 Limonite

Suggested $2 Trifecta ($30)
1st - 6
2nd - 1, 4, 10
3rd - 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10

Suggested $1 Trifecta ($15)
1st - 1, 4, 10
2nd - 6
3rd - 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10

JohnnyD
https://www.xpressbet.com/component/con ... erby-picks
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Starine
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Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:31 pm

I still like War of Will. Even if he didn't bring his best game I think another of these would have to step up big time to beat him. If someone does, I think the most likely candidate is Spinoff.
stark
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Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:44 pm

Not sure what the back story is on brother Kent bailing out on Sueno, it's not like he's busy in California and he doesn't have a mount until Sunday at Sunland Park. Think he might be missing out on a good one here, at least he's improving and at 8/1 worth a little at the windows imho, good luck.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Mylute
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:43 pm

By My Standards upset at 22-1.
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FlyToTheStars
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:45 pm

Noticed War stumbled a bit a few strides from the gate. I am sure it cost him a bit
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ElPrado2
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:19 pm

I'm not impressed with Pletcher's herd this spring.
Old Bones
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:21 pm

Casse on War of Will -

There remains a chance the colt runs the first Saturday in May. Casse said War of Will, a son of War Front, will ship as planned to Lexington, Ky., in the coming days. There, could be evaluated further.

"If it was just a muscle strain or something, yeah, he could be back training in a few days," Casse said. "He just took an extremely weird step. I've been training horses now for 40 years. I can't ever remember a horse doing that from behind like that."

Casse said he and his team counted five strides from the gate after War of Will "broke like a shot" that "he buckles on his right hind, and we don't know exactly what he did."

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... CZChh2s3_M
stark
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:04 pm

Old Bones wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:21 pm
Casse on War of Will -

There remains a chance the colt runs the first Saturday in May. Casse said War of Will, a son of War Front, will ship as planned to Lexington, Ky., in the coming days. There, could be evaluated further.

"If it was just a muscle strain or something, yeah, he could be back training in a few days," Casse said. "He just took an extremely weird step. I've been training horses now for 40 years. I can't ever remember a horse doing that from behind like that."

Casse said he and his team counted five strides from the gate after War of Will "broke like a shot" that "he buckles on his right hind, and we don't know exactly what he did."

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... CZChh2s3_M
In this crazy world we live in today, if it's something the trainer has never seen, then it's pretty logical its something the jockey has never felt before.......wonder if he should have pulled him up asap?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Somnambulist
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:11 pm

This is such a bummer for me. I was really high on this horse.
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Ridan_Remembered
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:58 am

Watching the video several times, it was indeed a very weird step. The horse's athleticism kept him from falling. To my somewhat uneducated eye it looked almost like a momentary partial dislocation of his hock or stifle, because his right hind started to buckle. The colt caught it and finished the race, but that was way too close to a tragedy to take another chance racing him anytime soon. If he was mine I would have him turned out until summer.
Happy Endings
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 11:51 am

I hope they have him examined every way possible. Nuclear scan, etc. I keep thinking of Animal Kingdom getting slammed at the beginning of the Belmont and fracturing his hip, yet running with that injury for 1 1/2 miles. He was out until the next spring.
middleground
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:19 pm

‏ Alicia Wincze Hughes @AHughesNTR:

Encouraging update from Mark Casse re: War of Will "It’s amazing how much better he was today. I just feel fortunate that he’s okay. We’re fairly certain that he probably caught his patella a little bit right at the start. But we feel optimistic that we can still make the Derby."
Catalina
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:31 pm

Ridan_Remembered wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:58 am
Watching the video several times, it was indeed a very weird step. The horse's athleticism kept him from falling. To my somewhat uneducated eye it looked almost like a momentary partial dislocation of his hock or stifle, because his right hind started to buckle. The colt caught it and finished the race, but that was way too close to a tragedy to take another chance racing him anytime soon. If he was mine I would have him turned out until summer.
I think that is what I would lean towards.
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Charlie
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:36 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:11 pm
This is such a bummer for me. I was really high on this horse.
Same. Not exactly the type of prep race you want heading into the KD (that is if they decide to go with him).
katmandu
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:43 pm

Scroll down to picture of WOW:

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs
Tessablue
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:44 pm

Just ask Classic Empire how willing Casse is to back off of his TC horses...

I actually liked By My Standards quite a bit going into yesterday's race- he gives the impression of a horse who has really put it together lately, and I thought he did a great job stepping up in class and making his own trip. His final eighth was very strong. The race was also quite a bit faster than the older horses and the large gap between second and third bore that out. The Louisiana Derby doesn't always have much of an impact, but I wouldn't overlook this race going forward.

By My Standards also has a very interesting pedigree! Would love to see Goldencents get some early momentum, he was such a good horse.
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Ridan_Remembered
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:37 pm

katmandu wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:43 pm
Scroll down to picture of WOW:

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs
Here's the photo. Certainly has the appearance of a dislocation. Trainer said the colt possibly slipped his patella (knee cap). Anyone who has experience with knee problems knows this is not a minor thing that the colt can get over in a short time. Here's a discussion of the possible cause: https://horse-canada.com/magazine_artic ... e-patella/

Image
Tessablue
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:59 pm

I slipped my patella a few years back and it was horribly painful and required a lot of rehabilitation time. I hope the poor horse gets a break.
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