The Florida Derby

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Mylute
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:22 pm

Hidden Scroll's current distance limitations are interesting considering his pedigree, but that just goes to show you can't judge a book by its cover, or a horse by their pedigree.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
Somnambulist
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:45 pm

Mylute wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:22 pm
Hidden Scroll's current distance limitations are interesting considering his pedigree, but that just goes to show you can't judge a book by its cover, or a horse by their pedigree.
I agree but I guess people are going off Mott's comments that he'll turn back in distance next out. Whether or not that means he's just getting a stronger foundation or they think faded who knows.

He ran fairly big the past two and could easily just be reacting to that. I feel bad for the jocks biceps having to keep him withheld so much on Saturday.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Blame
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:50 pm

Mylute wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:22 pm
Hidden Scroll's current distance limitations are interesting considering his pedigree, but that just goes to show you can't judge a book by its cover, or a horse by their pedigree.
Maybe Hidden Scroll is not very good. He has one win over a wet track at Gulfstream.
Somnambulist
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:00 pm

Blame wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:50 pm
Mylute wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:22 pm
Hidden Scroll's current distance limitations are interesting considering his pedigree, but that just goes to show you can't judge a book by its cover, or a horse by their pedigree.
Maybe Hidden Scroll is not very good. He has one win over a wet track at Gulfstream.
He is already comparatively very good. He won't be running in claiming races.

I get the wet track skepticism but he also ran really well in the FOY. I'd love to see him on the turf.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Tessablue
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:29 pm

It's really a shame that he drew the rail in the Florida Derby. I think Mott and company were committed to making him rate, but it didn't work out well with the draw at all. Most horses would have been very unhappy with that trip, and although he didn't show a lot of punch in the stretch this time, it doesn't make his previous two efforts any less admirable.

I'm glad that he'll sit out the Derby and be brought along more slowly, but he kind of went from one end of the trip extreme to the other, and I really hope his past two races don't have any long-term mental effects.
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Raven
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:58 pm

Hidden Scroll is just not that fast

Didn't see any burst of speed from him. He run evenly
You will soon break the bow if you keep it always stretched ~Faedus~
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Mylute
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:04 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:00 pm
Blame wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:50 pm
Mylute wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:22 pm
Hidden Scroll's current distance limitations are interesting considering his pedigree, but that just goes to show you can't judge a book by its cover, or a horse by their pedigree.
Maybe Hidden Scroll is not very good. He has one win over a wet track at Gulfstream.
He is already comparatively very good. He won't be running in claiming races.

I get the wet track skepticism but he also ran really well in the FOY. I'd love to see him on the turf.
^^^
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
stark
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:14 pm

CoronadosQuest wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:54 pm
Just think, you could have claimed this horse for $16k once...
Or, you could be the one that purchased his unproven momma for $11,000 recently.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Happy Endings
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:11 pm

stark wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:14 pm
CoronadosQuest wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:54 pm
Just think, you could have claimed this horse for $16k once...
Or, you could be the one that purchased his unproven momma for $11,000 recently.
I think you guys are talking about 2 different horses. ???
thinair
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:14 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:29 pm

I'm glad that he'll sit out the Derby and be brought along more slowly, but he kind of went from one end of the trip extreme to the other, and I really hope his past two races don't have any long-term mental effects.
So now you are agreeing with me on this:-)
thinair
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:16 pm

Blame wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:50 pm
Mylute wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:22 pm
Hidden Scroll's current distance limitations are interesting considering his pedigree, but that just goes to show you can't judge a book by its cover, or a horse by their pedigree.
Maybe Hidden Scroll is not very good. He has one win over a wet track at Gulfstream.
His Fountain of Youth is, at worst, one of the five best races anyone in this crop has run in any of the Derby preps this year, and it might be the best of all efforts.
Tessablue
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:25 pm

thinair wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:14 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:29 pm

I'm glad that he'll sit out the Derby and be brought along more slowly, but he kind of went from one end of the trip extreme to the other, and I really hope his past two races don't have any long-term mental effects.
So now you are agreeing with me on this:-)
I sure am! Previously I didn't think one more prep could do much harm, but in retrospect it was clearly wishful thinking. Certainly it's for the best that he got that trip yesterday, and not in May!

With Mott talking about racing Country House one more time for points, I'm a bit concerned about a possible doppelgänger situation. But in the case of Hidden Scroll it does sound like Juddmonte was the main influence.
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CoronadosQuest
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:20 pm

Happy Endings wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:11 pm
stark wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:14 pm
CoronadosQuest wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:54 pm
Just think, you could have claimed this horse for $16k once...
Or, you could be the one that purchased his unproven momma for $11,000 recently.
I think you guys are talking about 2 different horses. ???
Nope! Maximum Security debuted in a $16k Maiden Claimer on 12/20 at Gulfstream and Lil Indy, his dam, sold for $11k in foal to New Year's Day at the 2018 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale as hip #3310.
Apollo
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:39 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:29 pm
It's really a shame that he drew the rail in the Florida Derby. I think Mott and company were committed to making him rate, but it didn't work out well with the draw at all. Most horses would have been very unhappy with that trip, and although he didn't show a lot of punch in the stretch this time, it doesn't make his previous two efforts any less admirable.

I'm glad that he'll sit out the Derby and be brought along more slowly, but he kind of went from one end of the trip extreme to the other, and I really hope his past two races don't have any long-term mental effects.
Good points. If he had drawn in the middle there would have been pressure and jostling from both sides, hence requirement to use the horse at least somewhat. Instead he broke clean from the rail and was all by himself. Since the intention was to rate, it was okay I'll stop right here.

The Fountain of Youth was very good. But I did have quite a few sharp friends tell me that Hidden Scroll was likely to bounce in his next race, as a result of how the Fountain of Youth unfolded. It wasn't obvious to me but these guys study so many situational trends I've learned to respect their perspective.

The very late wise guy action seems to work in the Florida Derby. I have noted that in prior years while attending the race. Maximum Security was hyped on the cover of the Daily Racing Form that day and in multiple articles inside. But the odds kept drifting upward from the morning line. I think I saw 8/1 for quite a while. Then it dipped multiple times and ended up closer to 5/1. It was the same two years ago when late action dropped Always Dreaming from 4/1 to closer to 5/2.
interco
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Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:07 am

Why all the hype on Hidden Scroll anyway? His dam wasn't much. His siblings weren't much. It's amazing that his jocks and post positions were ever a point of contention for a horse with one maiden win. Wow.
thinair
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Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:42 am

interco wrote:
Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:07 am
Why all the hype on Hidden Scroll anyway? His dam wasn't much. His siblings weren't much. It's amazing that his jocks and post positions were ever a point of contention for a horse with one maiden win. Wow.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Blame
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Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:13 pm

thinair wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:55 pm
Blame wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:56 pm
Blame wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:14 pm
Maximum Security is obviously the most intriguing horse. He could be the Kentucky Derby favorite after this weekend. Like Bourbon War though and think Code of Honor will set himself up nicely for 10f at Churchill Downs.
Maximum Security looks like the Derby Favorite unless Omaha Beach or one of the Bafferts picks it up. Horse looks very fast in a not so fast crop.
There is ZERO chance Maximum Security will be the Derby favorite.
Maximum Security in now the Kentucky Derby favorite. lol

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... _Vegas_123
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ElPrado2
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Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:53 pm

His distance limitation is mental. Can he learn to rate behind horses or just sit there and pout, which is what he did Saturday.
thinair
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Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:51 pm

Blame wrote:
Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:13 pm


Maximum Security in now the Kentucky Derby favorite. lol

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... _Vegas_123
Don't worry, nobody here will mock you when he's 8:1 or higher.

However, the real question is what your stance actually is....because your most recent comments were that you never said he would BE the Derby favorite, he would only be the favorite, according to you, if a bunch of longshots won the remaining preps ( way to go out on a limb, by the way ). So which is it?

By the way, it's April 2nd.
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Blame
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Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:44 am

thinair wrote:
Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:51 pm
Blame wrote:
Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:13 pm


Maximum Security in now the Kentucky Derby favorite. lol

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... _Vegas_123
Don't worry, nobody here will mock you when he's 8:1 or higher.

However, the real question is what your stance actually is....because your most recent comments were that you never said he would BE the Derby favorite, he would only be the favorite, according to you, if a bunch of longshots won the remaining preps ( way to go out on a limb, by the way ). So which is it?

By the way, it's April 2nd.
He is still the current KY Derby favorite. My stance is he will be the post-time favorite as well. I can't predict what type of money Omaha Beach will take just because of his name but one of these two will be the KY Derby favorite. As of now I will use Omaha Beach and the Point of Entry (Plus Que Parfait) and Noble Mission (Code of Honor) colts because I think both will go 10F and will love Churchill Downs and will be a price. I am not using the FL Derby winner, but his speed figures suggest he is the most likely winner if he gets the distance and takes to the surface.
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