Breeders Cup Discussion?

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Curtis
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Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:31 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:13 pm
Danny Dimes is making a comeback.

I kind of don't get the wavering with Cataliner Cruiser. There is a big difference between 6f and 8f, and I don't think I have confidence in a horse where the trainer is all over the place. I feel the same about Omaha Beach.
The only thing I’d be worried about in regards to Omaha Beach is his bouncing. For that reason he’s worth trying to beat because he’ll be seriously over bet. I think any good router can sprint which is why I thought Omaha Beach was all but sure to win his comeback. I don’t know what Catalina Cruiser’s full scope is. He’s won at 8.5f but he doesn’t impress me as a two-turn horse. If he can run with Mitole he’ll be really tough and may have some value. I think Imperial Hint has bounce written all over him. Shancelot looks third best to me.
Somnambulist

Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:45 pm

I feel like it's hard for sprinters to stay in form all season. I don't know why or if that's something anecdotal. Imperial Hint has been running lights out lately so I'm inclined to agree. I love Mitole but he's never won at 6f against this level.
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Curtis
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Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:36 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:45 pm
I feel like it's hard for sprinters to stay in form all season. I don't know why or if that's something anecdotal. Imperial Hint has been running lights out lately so I'm inclined to agree. I love Mitole but he's never won at 6f against this level.
Sprinting is tough on a horse because of the way they need to be trained, I believe. I think if a horse can be successful at 8-8.5f, they’ll do just fine at 6f. So I wouldn’t be worried about Mitole. I don’t know how many times I’ve seen routers beat good sprinters sprint. Horses like Forego and Ancient Title won numerous sprints, Precisionist winning the BC Sprint, Ferdinand winning the Malibu, Unbridled beating Housebuster, now Omaha Beach. I’ve gone back and forth as to why, it may just be a matter of class. The main reason Artax was such a good sprinter is he was accomplished to a degree at a middle distance.
katmandu
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Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:02 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:55 am
Filly and Mare sprint is a 2 horse race. Throw the rest out.

https://twitter.com/DRFGrening/status/1 ... 6354567168
It's up - some urging, but she's got some kind of engine - definitely a fan of CD, but Cofefe is tough - looking forward to this one!

https://www.xbtv.com/video/bcworks19/co ... 19th-2019/

Cofefe looks like a sprinter:
https://www.xbtv.com/video/bcfillymares ... 18th-2019/
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ThreeMustangs
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Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:24 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:21 am
stark wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:10 am
Somnambulist wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:05 am


That's a Baffert horse time. Hopefully not too sharp?
Trainer has never had a horse this good, not sure he knows what to do preparing for the big day.

Ohh, and who is the other horse?
Not an unfair handicapping criticism, but the same thing could have been said prior to the Grade 1 Ballerina, couldn't it?

On Sheet numbers, her and Covfefe are pretty close, but I need to look again at Guarana and her sprint numbers.
Guarana Is done for the year. Chad Brown wasn’t happy with her last workout.

https://live.drf.com/nuggets/49742-guar ... t-time-off
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Flanders
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Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:30 pm

Can't wait to see the pre-entries tomorrow to see where horses are pointing since so many seemed to have been possible for numerous races.

I'm really interested to see if Magical comes and if they are going for the F/M Turf or the Turf.
Horsebagger
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Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:38 pm

ThreeMustangs wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:24 pm
Horsebagger wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:21 am
stark wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:10 am


Trainer has never had a horse this good, not sure he knows what to do preparing for the big day.

Ohh, and who is the other horse?
Not an unfair handicapping criticism, but the same thing could have been said prior to the Grade 1 Ballerina, couldn't it?

On Sheet numbers, her and Covfefe are pretty close, but I need to look again at Guarana and her sprint numbers.
Guarana Is done for the year. Chad Brown wasn’t happy with her last workout.

https://live.drf.com/nuggets/49742-guar ... t-time-off
I hope she's okay. I know Chad isn't going to run a horse who isn't 100%, but there were 2 eclipse awards on the line potentially with a win.
stark
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Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:09 pm

Curtis wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:31 pm
The only thing I’d be worried about in regards to Omaha Beach is his bouncing. For that reason he’s worth trying to beat because he’ll be seriously over bet. I think any good router can sprint which is why I thought Omaha Beach was all but sure to win his comeback. I don’t know what Catalina Cruiser’s full scope is. He’s won at 8.5f but he doesn’t impress me as a two-turn horse. If he can run with Mitole he’ll be really tough and may have some value. I think Imperial Hint has bounce written all over him. Shancelot looks third best to me.
I'm thinkin' Shancelot can actually improve off his last for several reasons.
1) I don't think that latest was his career best effort numberwise.
2) he's getting a pretty decent jock upgrade.
3) and the big one.....it's a little like home court advantage. He's been at SA since that last race, had another work over the track, this time a bullet/60 just yesterday. There is an unmeasurable advantage for coming out of your "own" barn rather than off the plane imho.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:59 pm

stark wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:09 pm
Curtis wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:31 pm
The only thing I’d be worried about in regards to Omaha Beach is his bouncing. For that reason he’s worth trying to beat because he’ll be seriously over bet. I think any good router can sprint which is why I thought Omaha Beach was all but sure to win his comeback. I don’t know what Catalina Cruiser’s full scope is. He’s won at 8.5f but he doesn’t impress me as a two-turn horse. If he can run with Mitole he’ll be really tough and may have some value. I think Imperial Hint has bounce written all over him. Shancelot looks third best to me.
I'm thinkin' Shancelot can actually improve off his last for several reasons.
1) I don't think that latest was his career best effort numberwise.
2) he's getting a pretty decent jock upgrade.
3) and the big one.....it's a little like home court advantage. He's been at SA since that last race, had another work over the track, this time a bullet/60 just yesterday. There is an unmeasurable advantage for coming out of your "own" barn rather than off the plane imho.
I don’t disagree with any of that but I still like him third best.
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honneerider
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Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:18 pm

Promises Fulfilled done for the year, racing in 2020!
Love this horse.
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... n_2020_123
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Mylute
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Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:04 pm

I'm really looking forward to Got Stormy in the Mile.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
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BaroqueAgain1
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Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:11 pm

Champagne winner Tiz the Law will bypass the BC Juvenile.
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray- ... contender/

Love this:
As Tagg sees it, he is merely taking the best possible care of a 2-year-old colt that won its first two starts convincingly, including a 4-length triumph in the Grade 1 $500,000 Champagne Stakes on Oct. 5 at Belmont Park to secure an expense-paid berth in the Juvenile that will go unused.
“They are so fractious and fragile. It's a bad combination,” said Tagg, referring to all Thoroughbreds. “We work day and night trying to protect them and do the right thing by them.”
Somnambulist

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:11 pm

When are they going to stick War of Will on the turf?
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Curtis
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Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:17 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:11 pm
When are they going to stick War of Will on the turf?
His first four starts were on the turf. He didn’t break his maiden until he went to the dirt. They didn’t exactly find the easiest spots in those turf races though after the initial MSW.
stark
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Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:59 pm

Midnight Bisou tightening the screws.....

Santa Anita 10/21/2019 Dirt 5F 1:00.40 Handily 3/37
Santa Anita 10/14/2019 Dirt 5F 1:01.60 Handily 23/57
Santa Anita 10/7/2019 Dirt 4F 51.60 Breezing 54/56
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Starine
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Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:00 pm

Nothing's wrong with Kennedy that I'm aware of. I remember right before he started to disappear he mentioned the upcoming birth of his daughter, his first child.

So no, I don't think he has moved onto different platforms or forums I think he just got busy with real life and being a dad.
Somnambulist

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:10 pm

Curtis wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:17 pm
Somnambulist wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:11 pm
When are they going to stick War of Will on the turf?
His first four starts were on the turf. He didn’t break his maiden until he went to the dirt. They didn’t exactly find the easiest spots in those turf races though after the initial MSW.
Try it again? His knees are basically in his forehead when he gallops. Its not like he's a world beater on the other stuff.

He also seems like a tough horse to figure out in general.
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Curtis
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Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:06 am

Somnambulist wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:10 pm
Curtis wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:17 pm
Somnambulist wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:11 pm
When are they going to stick War of Will on the turf?
His first four starts were on the turf. He didn’t break his maiden until he went to the dirt. They didn’t exactly find the easiest spots in those turf races though after the initial MSW.
Try it again? His knees are basically in his forehead when he gallops. Its not like he's a world beater on the other stuff.

He also seems like a tough horse to figure out in general.
Your right and he seems to run with his mouth wide open. He reminds me of a horse that I think was in the same crop as Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, a horse named Hawkster. I believe he’s the only horse to finish 5th in all three TC races. Hawkster’s best races were when he was turned loose and allowed to roll on the front end of long turf races. He once ran 12f in 2:22 and change at Santa Anita. Ron McAnally had him if memory serves. When they tried to rate Hawkster it never worked, he just needed to have his head. I wonder how tactics like that would suit War of Will.
stark
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Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:20 am

Jay Privman
‏@DRFPrivman

I know fast horses work fast but holy cow Mitole just threw it down
...
58.27 for 5/8 from gate per @DRFWelsch.
Mike Smith was up.
"Did it nice, too," Smith said. "Did it the right way. Recovered quick.
"It's just a joy to get on these horses."

Mike Welsch
‏@DRFWelsch

Other Breeders' Cup workers this a.m. at Santa Anita include Bast, 6F in 1:15.70 but walked away from pole, had final 5/8's 1:00.96 with big gallop out, up a mile in 1:43.17.
"I wanted to get a good work into her," said Baffert.
He added: "I thought the track was slow until Mitole worked."
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
KatieK101
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Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:44 am

Is Express Train going to the Juvenile? I've seen some articles about moving forward on the derby trail, but nothing about the Breeders Cup.
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