2019 Three-Year-Olds

middleground
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:54 pm

I thought for a second that Hidden Scroll was going to pull away and win easily.

The top three (Code of Honor, Bourbon War, Vekoma) all look like they could be decent horses.
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CoronadosQuest
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:58 pm

Code of Honor and Bourbon War both ran excellent races in the Fountain of Youth! Bourbon War was seriously flying at the end.. I thought he was going to catch Code of Honor for a moment.
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:00 pm

I couldn't tell if the horse was pulling because my stream is pretty poor, but if he wasn't... that ride was shocking. I actually think he ran very well to hang on at all in the stretch.

Nice to see Code of Honor rebound. I think the top four are all very nice horses.
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Sparrow Castle
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:06 pm

I'm happy that Code of Honor won it, and Noble Mission (full brother to Frankel) has a Derby contender. I like all of the first four finishers in this Derby prep. It'll be fun to see how they do from here.
Somnambulist
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:11 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:00 pm
I couldn't tell if the horse was pulling because my stream is pretty poor, but if he wasn't... that ride was shocking. I actually think he ran very well to hang on at all in the stretch.

Nice to see Code of Honor rebound. I think the top four are all very nice horses.
He didn't look like he wanted much to do with rating.

I wonder if he remains on the Derby trail, or if Mott points to another big goal down the line.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Somnambulist
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:12 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:11 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:00 pm
I couldn't tell if the horse was pulling because my stream is pretty poor, but if he wasn't... that ride was shocking. I actually think he ran very well to hang on at all in the stretch.

Nice to see Code of Honor rebound. I think the top four are all very nice horses.
He didn't look like he wanted much to do with rating. My stream wasn't great either, but Xpressbet's never is. Streams perfectly at all times except the actual race.

I wonder if he remains on the Derby trail, or if Mott points to another big goal down the line.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Somnambulist
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:12 pm

duplicate
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Sparrow Castle
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:17 pm

I wouldn't take Hidden Scroll off the Derby trail just yet. It's only his second start. Hopefully, they can get him to settle a bit.
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:24 pm

That is the question, although it wouldn't shock me if they take one more shot (possibly with a rider change, as Rosario wasn't their first choice for the horse).

I caught a hi-def replay of the race and still can't tell if Hidden Scroll pulled himself up there- he didn't look terribly rank, and he rates fine in works, but he was in tight at the start and raceday is a different animal for a lightly raced colt. Couple of other thoughts- Signalman should have been better, and I'm keeping an eye on Global Campaign next out. Only other (competitive) horse up near that pace, looked to be retreating turning for home and got checked pretty hard by the winner, but he never threw in the towel and ended up only a few lengths behind that top four. Kind of tough to judge the top two given the perfect setup, but I can't say much against them.
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Mylute
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:25 pm

Jeltrin upset the Davona Dale at 50-1 with Jaywalk fourth.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
Somnambulist
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:28 pm

Sparrow Castle wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:17 pm
I wouldn't take Hidden Scroll off the Derby trail just yet. It's only his second start. Hopefully, they can get him to settle a bit.
I just think it's a tall order for an inexperienced horse. I get you have to capitalize on timing/opportunity but they're all not Justify. Juddmonte doesn't pay for my opinions, though!
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Sparrow Castle
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:47 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:28 pm
Sparrow Castle wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:17 pm
I wouldn't take Hidden Scroll off the Derby trail just yet. It's only his second start. Hopefully, they can get him to settle a bit.
I just think it's a tall order for an inexperienced horse. I get you have to capitalize on timing/opportunity but they're all not Justify. Juddmonte doesn't pay for my opinions, though!
Oh I don't disagree with you at all. It is a lot to ask for a late starter, and I'm sure not in favor of forcing it. I guess I still hope he really is that good and want to see these horses continue to compete against each other, lol. I expect Mott and Juddmonte will make the appropriate decision.
thinair
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:28 pm

middleground wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:54 pm
I thought for a second that Hidden Scroll was going to pull away and win easily.

The top three (Code of Honor, Bourbon War, Vekoma) all look like they could be decent horses.
They might....and they still weren't the best horses in the race.

Hidden Scroll ran remarkably well under the circumstances.
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Sparrow Castle
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Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:31 pm

Jay Privman @DRFPrivman
16m16 minutes ago
Code of Honor got a Beyer Speed Figure of 95 for the Fountain of Youth, per Andy Beyer #derbywatch
peeptoad
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Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:08 am

Of the horses farther back than mid-pack early Bourbon War was the only horse to close any ground at all. Conversely the only forwardly placed horse to drop completely out of it was the horse that ultimately finished last. Not sure how to read into the pace and the track since there are enough unknowns about most of these. My inclination would be to give Hidden Scroll a pass since he did likely run the best race under the circumstances. Pre-race I didn't care for the winner in this spot (my bad), but I'm not sure I'd take him out of this race in a subsequent start either.
In another full field going forward I think Bourbon War is the one I'm going to keep tabs on. Of all the deep closing types on the main track yesterday he was the only one to close substantial ground. Granted he had the set up to do it and didn't win, but he came from way farther back than the winner and got close.
In any case I hope HS gets another chance on the derby trail... from the post-race interview excerpt I read from Mott that didn't sound too promising.
thinair
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Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:05 pm

I will be very surprised if Mott and Juddmonte sacrifice Hidden Scroll in pursuit of the Derby. He's too good a horse to rush into another Derby prep, and then the Derby itself, after such a difficult race in his second start. He very well may turn out to be the best of this crop, but very possibly not if they forge ahead on the Derby trail.

I think Mott sleeps just fine at night knowing he never won the Derby.
Somnambulist
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Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:38 pm

thinair wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:05 pm
I will be very surprised if Mott and Juddmonte sacrifice Hidden Scroll in pursuit of the Derby. He's too good a horse to rush into another Derby prep, and then the Derby itself, after such a difficult race in his second start. He very well may turn out to be the best of this crop, but very possibly not if they forge ahead on the Derby trail.

I think Mott sleeps just fine at night knowing he never won the Derby.
I totally agree with this. As far as connections go it is really a great combo.

I don't think I realized prior to right now that Rosario was on Jaywalk, too. I don't know if that was her only problem yesterday but yikes.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Tessablue
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Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:08 pm

Yeah, hard to judge how much he was at fault for, but Rosario had a brutal double yesterday. I do wonder if Jaywalk's performance influenced any decision-making in the FoY. I don't think she was winning under any trip, but I guess I can see the argument that she would have been better-served by going straight to the lead.

I caught the head-on replay and Hidden Scroll got hit pretty hard at the start. Between everything that went wrong in the race and Mott's comments afterwards, I agree that it's unlikely he stays on the trail. Which is fine. I'm still very excited to see him wherever he shows up again.
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Sparrow Castle
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Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:16 pm

sdhorserace @sdhorserace
3h3 hours ago
Super Steed is off the Derby Trail. Trainer Larry Jones says his G3 Southwest winner has developed bone bruising and will be sidelined for the next 60-to-90 days

📸 @CoadyPhoto
Image

Edited to add the article:

Super Steed Off Derby Trail
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/su ... rby-trail/
Happy Endings
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Mon Mar 04, 2019 12:49 am

Hidden Scroll is still on the Derby Trail for now. I posted a link to an article from TDN with interview quotes from his connections under Horse Followings. They said they are not going to give up just yet. They want to wait and see how he does the next few weeks. They think he ran well considering how the race played out.
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