Top Ten Lists 2020 Kentucky Derby

stark
Posts: 5936
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:00 pm

Starine wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:28 pm
stark wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:19 pm
I once read an interview with him and I came away with the impression that's he training all his horses to be Zenyatta. Specifically, telling workout jocks to wait, wait some more than pounce in the lane.
I'm not a trainer, but using a one-size-fits-all approach for all horses seems a bit short-sighted.
It's like saying EddieD was only good on a closer or PVal was only good on a speed horse, obviously both of those rules of thumb are exaggerations. As is the conversation about JohnS training for slow-early,/fast-late is an exaggeration as pointed out by thinair....there was that sprinter 7 years ago that broke his maiden like a rocketship. But I've watched an awful lot of Sherriffs graded stakes stars who are dyed in the wool stone cold deep closers.

Lets start the list with the obvious Zenyatta.
Then there's Giacomo.
And Tiago
Who can forget those memorable stretch runs from Life Is Sweet?
Neko Bay didn't always get up in time, but he was a comin!

Your memory is better than mine, maybe you can remember the early speedsters that won Graded Stakes?.....
Zenyatta
Giacomo
Tiago
Life Is Sweet
Manistique
Hollywood Story
Gormley
Mr. Commons
After Market
Cliquot
Harmonious
Starrer
Proposed
Calkins Road
David Copperfield
Madeo
Radu Cool
Blingo
Stanwyck
Neko Bay
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
thinair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:41 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:54 pm
Thanks for remembering Mentor Cane, TA. He was such a gorgeous steel grey, and looked like he was about to become a real G1 sprinter when he tragically died suddenly. :(
I loved Mentor Cane. That was crushing when he broke down.
User avatar
Starine
Posts: 5118
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2014 12:39 am
Location: South Carolina

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:44 pm

I see what you're saying.... but Cliquot! There's a name I haven't heard in a very long time.
Slewfan2
Posts: 372
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 5:35 pm

Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:35 pm

Well the good news is that Honor A.P. is back jogging - more x-rays proved negative. So, I guess if he doesn't have any further setbacks, he's ok to proceed...
stark
Posts: 5936
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:13 pm

Friday update from Jon White....
“Honor A.P., who missed the Sham when all was not well, debuts on the Top 10 this week following a positive update on the 3-year-old’s status by Ed Golden in last Saturday’s Santa Anita stable notes. Golden wrote: ‘Trainer John Shirreffs reports X-rays were negative on Honor A.P. after he was ‘off in his right front’ causing him to miss the Jan. 4. Sham Stakes, but the son of Honor Code is back jogging. ‘Maybe he wrenched it,’ the trainer speculated.
“In Honor A.P.'s first career start, he finished a fast-closing second in a six-furlong maiden race at Del Mar last Aug. 17. He then won a one-mile maiden race in front-running fashion by 5 1/4 lengths at Santa Anita on Oct. 13 in his most recent start.

1. Storm the Court (1)
2. Dennis’ Moment (2)
3. Thousand Words (3)
4. Honor A.P. (NR)
5. Maxfield (4)
6. Tiz the Law (5)
7. Authentic (6)
8. Independence Hall (7)
9. Untitled (10)
10. Anneau d’Or (9)
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
MySaladDays
Posts: 1121
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:52 am

stark wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:00 pm
Your memory is better than mine, maybe you can remember the early speedsters that won Graded Stakes?....
Great memory, Stark, this list is very good.

stark wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:19 pm
I once read an interview with him and I came away with the impression that's he training all his horses to be Zenyatta. Specifically, telling workout jocks to wait, wait some more than pounce in the lane.
Somehow, I think JS knows that all horses aren't zenyatta, she had a unique ability that many do not have.....she was a fast sprinter which showed up in her earlier races.......and then turned out she could go long. She pretty much "sprinted past" horses in the deep stretch........

She HAD that speed, and was able to hold it in abeyance. until needed. This is one of the signature talents of a high class classic distance horse.

Anyway, it would be sort of ridiculous to think JS doesn't know the difference between horses who have this ability and those who do not. :)
stark
Posts: 5936
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:39 am

Nadal out of nowhere vaults into the #3 slot....

“Here are this week’s Kentucky Derby rankings, courtesy of Xpressbet:
1. Storm the Court (1)
2. Dennis’ Moment (2)
3. Nadal (NR)
4. Honor A.P. (4)
5. Thousand Words (3)
6. Maxfield (5)
7. Tiz the Law (6)
8. Authentic (7)
9. Independence Hall (8)
10. Untitled (9)
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
User avatar
Mylute
Posts: 4920
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:20 pm
Location: Alabama

Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:53 am

I have a feeling this is gonna be another "weird" edition of the Derby.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
~ Peter Lorre 1904 - 1̶9̶6̶4̶ ∞
User avatar
Squeaky
Posts: 962
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:29 pm

Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:16 pm

Gold Street wins the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn in the mud
User avatar
ThreeMustangs
Posts: 1980
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:37 pm
Location: Florida

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:29 pm

Hmmmmm.


Kentucky Derby 2020 to debut new 20-horse starting gate



https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... _gate_123#
stark
Posts: 5936
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:01 pm

ThreeMustangs wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:29 pm
Hmmmmm.


Kentucky Derby 2020 to debut new 20-horse starting gate



https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... _gate_123#
Other than cost, is there any downside to this?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4610
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:21 pm

Having watched my favourites two years in a row get mugged due to that auxiliary gate I'm traumatised and will welcome the lack of PTSD this year :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
Posts: 5936
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:27 pm

I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
MySaladDays
Posts: 1121
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Mon Feb 17, 2020 4:00 am

stark wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:13 pm
Friday update from Jon White....
“Honor A.P., who missed the Sham when all was not well, debuts on the Top 10 this week following a positive update on the 3-year-old’s status by Ed Golden in last Saturday’s Santa Anita stable notes. Golden wrote: ‘Trainer John Shirreffs reports X-rays were negative on Honor A.P. after he was ‘off in his right front’ causing him to miss the Jan. 4. Sham Stakes, but the son of Honor Code is back jogging. ‘Maybe he wrenched it,’ the trainer speculated.
“In Honor A.P.'s first career start, he finished a fast-closing second in a six-furlong maiden race at Del Mar last Aug. 17. He then won a one-mile maiden race in front-running fashion by 5 1/4 lengths at Santa Anita on Oct. 13 in his most recent start.

1. Storm the Court (1)
2. Dennis’ Moment (2)
3. Thousand Words (3)
4. Honor A.P. (NR)
5. Maxfield (4)
6. Tiz the Law (5)
7. Authentic (6)
8. Independence Hall (7)
9. Untitled (10)
10. Anneau d’Or (9)
Nice list. I'm a huge fan of walsh and am hoping for Maxfield to make the gate, but I usually don't use horses who have had any kind of setbacks and he's a bit behind on the worktab now. As for Tiz the Law, not into him at all for the KY Derby. There will be some good horses coming out of Oaklawn this year, they aren't on any lists yet.
I pretyy much go to the track every day, so don't have much time for forums during Oaklawn meet, will check back in before the Derby. Lot of muddy track lately, we are in that time of year here, and whoever is making the M/L has been a little "off" lately.......but weekend was gorgeous, and Sat got almost 23,000 people with nothing "really special" going on.....but it's still pretty chilly this time of year and we southerners don't much care for that....but this is a die-hard racing town, people actually GO to the track so even before the expansion 25-30k people on a sat isn't that unusual. I think the rebel weekend will be pretty packed, I'm gonna "guess" about 35K.......
middleground
Posts: 515
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:29 pm

Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:08 pm

MySaladDays wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 4:00 am


Nice list. I'm a huge fan of walsh and am hoping for Maxfield to make the gate, but I usually don't use horses who have had any kind of setbacks and he's a bit behind on the worktab now. As for Tiz the Law, not into him at all for the KY Derby. There will be some good horses coming out of Oaklawn this year, they aren't on any lists yet.
I pretyy much go to the track every day, so don't have much time for forums during Oaklawn meet, will check back in before the Derby. Lot of muddy track lately, we are in that time of year here, and whoever is making the M/L has been a little "off" lately.......but weekend was gorgeous, and Sat got almost 23,000 people with nothing "really special" going on.....but it's still pretty chilly this time of year and we southerners don't much care for that....but this is a die-hard racing town, people actually GO to the track so even before the expansion 25-30k people on a sat isn't that unusual. I think the rebel weekend will be pretty packed, I'm gonna "guess" about 35K.......
Oaklawn is a great track. When I lived within driving distance, I'd go to Hot Springs all the time. Not just for the races, but also for the long-departed I.Q. Zoo:

https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/iq-zoo-arkansas
User avatar
Big Ten
Posts: 808
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:38 pm

1. Charlatan

Don't like the rest so far. Sole Volante seems pretty good. Nadal did not impress me one bit. Charlatan ran a faster 6F being geared down.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
thinair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:39 am

Charlatan isn't even pointed for the Derby. He's a Sprinter.
stark
Posts: 5936
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:47 am

CHARLATAN JOINS BAFFERT’S TRIPLE CROWN BRIGADE

Bob Baffert unleashed another dazzling three-year-old from his seemingly infinite band of blueblood buzz saws when he sent out Charlatan to capture his debut race Sunday, scoring by 5 ¾ lengths under Drayden Van Dyke in 1:08.85 for six furlongs, an eye-opening clocking on a track that has been playing seconds slower through the first 26 days of the Winter Meet.

“We knew he was a really fast horse,” Baffert said Monday morning of the $700,000 son of 2004 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner and Eclipse champion Speightstown, who had two bullet works among his 12 recorded drills prior to his debut.

“His gate works were very impressive,” Baffert said. “He worked one 12 and two from the gate (on Jan. 22) with an older horse and that tipped them off, but I thought he still might need one. He still looks a little soft, and until they run, you don’t know, but he was pretty impressive.”

Asked his read on his three-year-old crop to date, which includes first division Triple Crown sophomores Nadal, Thousand Words and Authentic, the two-time Triple Crown winner opted to play his cards close to the vest, as is his wont.

“You know what? Right now, I’m still not talking about it too much,” he said. “I’ve got to figure out where I’m going to run them. Everybody keeps asking me every day, ‘What are you going to do?’ I know what I’m going to do, but only I know.

https://www.santaanita.com/stable-notes ... kwGgShKjIU
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
User avatar
Big Ten
Posts: 808
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:47 pm

1. Charlatan, 105 BSF
2. Sole Volante, 96 BSF

Charlatan: 16-1 x $25 = $400
Sole Volante: 22-1 x 4.55 = $100.10

Already bet my futures for both just a few hours ago. If neither one makes it into the Kentucky Derby like Omaha Beach didn't last year, I won't be picking another horse. I'm not over that Maximum Security disqualification even though I feel he deserved it. Will use a $29.55 capital for this race instead of the typical $100 to sometimes $120-$200.

I'm hoping Charlatan can make up the disappointment of Improbable from last year. I know the first Baffert horse that comes to mind is Justify. Never raced as a 2YO. Chestnut. Debuts with a huge Beyer. We'll see. Need to see more and hope he even makes it to the Derby gate. Way too early to tell but his 6F is the fastest at the distance in Santa Anita in 2 years. Faster than last year's BC Sprint.

I told myself I would never be a fan of horse racing last year. Nah. I will always love horse racing. How can I hate something I followed since December 26, 1995? Heck, I still love Justify even though I read about the drugs thing he was on just last year about a few weeks after it broke out. I still love that horse. Just didn't leave a comment about it and shrugged it off. Cheating is all over any sport. Look at the 2017 and 2018 World Series. I still think Baffert is the GOAT horse trainer.

A few days ago, I googled if Silver Charm (1994) and Lava Man (2001) were both still alive and they still are. Made me smile. I guess I had an horse racing inch because I read the NFL free agency starts on March 18th. The Tom Brady mystery box will be unraveled if he's staying or going. Well, March 18 is Cigar's birthday. He'd be 30 next month. So it got me thinking about him (1990-2014), Skip Away (1993-2010), Holy Bull (1991-2017), which led to my curiosity if Silver Charm was still alive?

Then I googled what's going on with Lava Man who I absolutely adored as a racehorse since he made some good money. Remembered being one of the first people on here who touted him when making picks for the 2005 Hollywood Gold Cup when he was 6-1. I was an early bird for Rock Hard Ten, Lava Man, and Ghostzapper before the latter 2 became stars and HoFers. I read several years ago Lava Man became a lead pony and he still is.

'Coach' Lava Man
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/thor ... am-oneill/

Free House and Lava Man will always be my two favorite Cal-breds and I love California Chrome. Lava Man remains my favorite gelding ever and I had love for Funny Cide. I also miss Zenyatta. I loved that big mare. Just fond memories from several horses I enjoyed watching from the last 25 years. Names you see on my signature.

I still don't really follow the sport that much. Only the Triple Crown especially the Kentucky Derby which is my favorite race to watch and bet on since I first followed the sport in the mid-1990s. I hate what the Breeders' Cup has become. Didn't even watch it last year. I still wish the Breeders' Cup was a one-day event like old times. Just charge us $25 for a 14-race event like in 2003 and be done with it. None of this two-day BS.

I still think horse racing is animal cruelty. Maybe not always for the upper ranks but for the bottom feeders. It is what it is as they say. But I also miss the jigsaw puzzle of what the Kentucky Derby can be. I miss the annual TBC contest for it and some of the pageantry. The people are also wonderful in the industry and the ones who follow it. Not all of them but most. I miss thinking about the most exciting two minutes in sports. The Kentucky Derby really is our Super Bowl. No other race. Not even the BC Classic with superior horses.

Most of my thoughts is with the NBA because my LA Clippers are finally legitimate title contenders and I hate the Lakers. I love the LeBron vs Kawhi narrative. I still cried my eyes out when Kobe died. It still hurts me. And I hated Kobe for years because he did play for Lakers. I don't really "hate" him as a person. It's just having a protagonist and antagonist in my mind with sports. I never wish ill will on anybody even towards rivals. RIP to Kobe, Gigi, and the other 7 victims.

As of late, it's just basketball for me. A sport I followed since 1990 and my LA Clippers I followed since 1992. We have a horse named Nadal but I smiled when I saw a horse named Ginobili. Baseball was my first love back in 1987 though but I stopped watching after 1991. Still pissed my San Francisco 49ers lost that Super Bowl. Thanks, Kyle Shanahan. Still scoreless in the 4th quarter in both Super Bowls. Lost $100 bet on my Niners to net profit close to $300. Oh, well. Both my LA Clippers and San Francisco 49ers are still positioned to be a dynasty.

I'll watch First Take and The Undisputed talk about the same thing over and over which is usually Lakers vs Clippers or LeBron vs Kawhi this year and I'll comment about it everywhere on YouTube. If it's not the NBA I'm watching I have a Regal Unlimited Pass for movies. Horse racing is a once, twice, or thrice thing for me. A hobby for a couple months (April-June) to pay attention to.

Going back to the Derby contenders, it's only Charlatan and Sole Volante for me. At least in my bets. I wasn't impressed at all by Nadal, Thousand Words, and Silver Prospector. I don't see the separation or blazing fast closing speed late. Independence Hall is a big gorgeous horse and I don't see it in him either. Sole Volante handled him easily. I got 2 horses with contrasting running-styles.

If Charlatan burns out, I got Sole picking up the pieces late. Sole's kick is extraordinary. It's Zenyatta-esque. I like any horse who can win on dirt and turf. The running-style is scary to have in the Derby with so much traffic but he can also save ground early like Street Sense did. Post position won't matter to him. The last three Derby runnings have been sloppy though. Suited better for Charlatan. The cleanest-looking horse tends to be the one crossing first.

My Derby Picks
2015: Dortmund (3rd)
2016: Nyquist (1st)
2017: Always Dreaming (1st)
2018: Justify (1st)
2019: Maximum Security (1st but DQ'd to 17th)
2020: Charlatan (??)

Sole Volante is my backup like Improbable was to Maximum Security last year. In 2018, it was pretty much all Justify. I liked Mendelssohn and Audible but Justify was easily a single for me. I didn't have much faith in Baffert's 3YOs last year. I have faith this year. Time for Baffert and Charlatan to win the Derby for us Californians again. We can't win it every year but we can win it again this year.

Californian Derby Winners -
2012: I'll Have Another
2014: California Chrome
2015: American Pharoah
2016: Nyquist
2018: Justify

I gave a chance to an East Coast horse last year and the 2019 Florida Derby winner's jockey blew it. I had a feeling Luis Saez was going to mess it up with his lack of Derby experience and he did. Time for another Californian to recapture the Kentucky Derby throne again. Show them how it's really done.

Knowing my bad luck, Charlatan and Sole Volante will both lose. Maximum Security got disqualified that cost me $500 in winnings. My Niners blew it in the 4th quarter to the Chiefs. I had money on the Bucks last year and they blew it after going up 2-0 to the Raptors.

A no call on a pass interference killed my Patriots-Saints bet last year. My Clippers will probably lose this year as well to the dreaded Lakers who I hate or the Bucks who I betted last year or the Sixers who I betted a year before that. Two East Coast teams that blew it for me as well.

My last winner? Justify. And Charlatan reminds alot of us of him.

How far will Charlatan go?
https://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs ... cts_go_123
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Tessablue
Posts: 4195
Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:12 pm

Charlatan wouldn't even be in the conversation without the Baffert factor. Nor would Nadal, for that matter.

It's kind of crazy to me that Tiz the Law isn't being hyped more. His Holy Bull effort was outstanding. That he closed at equal odds with Nadal in Pool 2- off solely that one's maiden win- is completely insane to me.
Post Reply