2019 Eclipse Awards-Predictions?

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carole
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Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:08 pm

Ok so Breeder's Cup is over, and whilst there's still a bit of racing to do I think we can seriously start discussing the Eclipse Awards now. Here are my predictions, some of which are very obvious:

Champ 2yo Male:
Horse: Storm the Court
Reason: This is a very tough category, no REAL standout but with a BC win in the main American division, I think Storm the Court takes it (just like Good Magic did in 2017). Four Wheel Drive and Eight Rings the other candidates I think.

Champ 2yo Female:
Horse: British Idiom
Reason: 2 Grade 1 wins, won the end of year championship. Think she's pretty much a lock.

Champ 3yo Female:
Horse: Covfefe
Reason: Multiple Grade 1 winner, BC winner and won 5 of 6 starts. Defeated the best in her division including other contender Serengeti Empress so she gets this one.

Champ 3yo Male:
Horse: Code of Honour
Reason: This was a very difficult category, I think Code of Honour might pip this though. 2 Grade 1 wins and he technically beat the BC Classic champion in the JCGC. Omaha Beach likely to get sentimental votes and Maximum Security might not be done for the year yet so maybe he'll come through with a last minute Grade 1 win (to add to his other one) to clinch the honours.

Older Dirt Female:
Horse: Midnight Bisou
Reason: Despite losing the BC, she ran a game 2nd and was undefeated and much the best in her division up to that point so that one race doesn't erase that excellent record. Blue Prize and Elate bound to get a couple of votes though.

Older Dirt Male:
Horse: Mitole
Reason: Outstanding season for this horse, almost undefeated, won the Met Mile against an insane field, beat the best field assembled in the BC Sprint. But Vino Rosso might get votes because he is a dual Grade 1 winner this year and is in the main American division.

Champ Turf Female:
Horse: Uni
Reason: 2 highly impressive Grade 1 wins and 1 of them against the boys. Sistercharlie of course was super impressive in her division this year but her loss in the BC might hurt her. Will be a close one either way.

Champ Turf Male:
Horse: Bricks and Mortar
Reason: No brainer, he beat everything they tossed at him and won the two biggest turf championships this year, the Pegasus and the BC Turf (at 2 very different distances too).

Champ Female Sprinter:
Horse: Covfefe
Reason: Same as champ 3yo filly, beat the best in her division and won the end of year championship.

Champ Male Sprinter:
Horse: Mitole
Reason: Same as above, dominant in this division and proved much the best at the BC.

Horse of the Year:
Horse: Bricks and Mortar
Reason: Undefeated season, dominating his division facing various distances and tracks, won at both Pegasus and BC meetings. Mitole will get a few votes too and maybe Midnight Bisou, possibly Vino Rosso but ultimately Bricks and Mortar will win this category by a comfortable margin.
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Kurenai
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Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:54 pm

This is pretty much what I've been thinking too, except for one thing: I think Mitole will win HOTY over Bricks and Mortar (who would be my pick if I had a vote).
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Mylute
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Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:42 am

I think there's a chance Serengeti Empress gets it over Covfefe, because Oaks.

Unique Bella, who was an incredibly fawned over, popular horse got Female Sprinter because she won the La Brea and popularity (imho). Given how popular she was it would make sense for the voters to give her 3yo Champ as well, but they didn't.

Might be comparing apples to oranges but I could compare it to the Derby bias. I think the Distaff is slightly "valued more" than the Female Sprint.

Also, Maximum Security will also get a ton of votes, I bet.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
Somnambulist

Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:35 am

Kurenai wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:54 pm
This is pretty much what I've been thinking too, except for one thing: I think Mitole will win HOTY over Bricks and Mortar (who would be my pick if I had a vote).


I'm inclined to think that BaM gets it. I don't really have a dog in it - I really love Mitole, but they're both pretty deserving.

Maybe we can bring back the dumb co-HOTY idea from 2009.
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Curtis
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Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:38 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:35 am
Kurenai wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:54 pm
This is pretty much what I've been thinking too, except for one thing: I think Mitole will win HOTY over Bricks and Mortar (who would be my pick if I had a vote).


I'm inclined to think that BaM gets it. I don't really have a dog in it - I really love Mitole, but they're both pretty deserving.

Maybe we can bring back the dumb co-HOTY idea from 2009.
The last pre-Eclipse HOTY was actually a split vote between Fort Marcy, a turf horse, and Personality, the Preakness winner. I think Bricks and Mortar wins it pretty easily. The perfect record is the key.

As for some of the others. It’s too early, in my opinion, to decide both 2yo and 3yo males. If it ended now, I’m not sure Max wouldn’t get my vote anyway. If he wins either the Clark or the Cigar Mile, he’s a lock. As for Dirt Male, I would give it to Vino Rosso. I’m okay with the JCGC DQ, but I’m not sure Code of Honor ever stays in front of him all the way to the wire that day. Even with his record as is, I would give the award to Vino.
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Miss Woodford
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Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:20 pm

Champion Steeplechase Horse should be Winston C with his Saratoga G1 sweep but the voters (the few who actually bother to vote in this category) will pick the Grand National winner (Brain Power) as usual.
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Starine
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Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:22 pm

Re: Bricks and Mortar vs Mitole for HOTY -- I don't even think it will be close. Bricks and Mortar easily based on his undefeated season. BC Turf, Pegasus Turf, Arlington Million, Manhattan, Turf Classic... you can't knock that resume.
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Charlie
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Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:41 am

3 yr old should be interesting... did the same 3 yr old win more than 1 g/'classic' race?

I lean towards BaM, but both he and Mitole kicked butt in their division and won the big race. Maybe that extra win by Mortar will give him an edge lol.
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Mylute
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Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:54 am

If I was a voter I'd write in a vote for Belvoir Bay for Champion Turf Mare.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
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Curtis
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Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:52 pm

Mylute wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:54 am
If I was a voter I'd write in a vote for Belvoir Bay for Champion Turf Mare.
I love her, have won quite a bit—for me—of money on her over the years and ended up solidly in the black for the BC because of her win and the exacta with Om. You’re going to have to explain your reasoning though.
thinair
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Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:24 pm

Mylute wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:54 am
If I was a voter I'd write in a vote for Belvoir Bay for Champion Turf Mare.
Good thing you aren't a voter.
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CoronadosQuest
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Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:47 pm

I think Bricks and Mortor with his 5 G1s and perfect 6 for 6 season gets Horse of the Year. Mitole did have a fantastic season though!
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Mylute
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Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:52 pm

thinair wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:24 pm
Mylute wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:54 am
If I was a voter I'd write in a vote for Belvoir Bay for Champion Turf Mare.
Good thing you aren't a voter.
What's in your craw?
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
BaroqueAgain1
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Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:15 pm

FWIW, Paulick's latest poll asks: "If voting were today, who would get your vote for Horse of the Year?"
The results so far have Bricks and Mortar far ahead of the other candidates; 68.03% to Mitole's 13.56%, Vino Rosso's 10.85% and Midnight Bisou's 7.56%.
hadrianmarcus
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Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:18 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:15 pm
FWIW, Paulick's latest poll asks: "If voting were today, who would get your vote for Horse of the Year?"
The results so far have Bricks and Mortar far ahead of the other candidates; 68.03% to Mitole's 13.56%, Vino Rosso's 10.85% and Midnight Bisou's 7.56%.
Bricks and Mortar received 42 first places votes in the final NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll compared to Mitole's two first place votes. And unlike the Paulick Report poll, some of the NTRA Poll voters are also Eclipse voters as well.
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Starine
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Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:50 pm

Maximum Security is targeting the Cigar Mile. My question for you all:

If he wins, would you vote him champion three-year-old?
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Curtis
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Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:02 pm

Starine wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:50 pm
Maximum Security is targeting the Cigar Mile. My question for you all:

If he wins, would you vote him champion three-year-old?
Yes, actually a top 3 finish is all I’d require.
carole
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:52 am

Starine wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:50 pm
Maximum Security is targeting the Cigar Mile. My question for you all:

If he wins, would you vote him champion three-year-old?
Yes definitely, he would have the most Grade 1 wins for a 3yo male and he would prove that he can win a Grade 1 against his elders.
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